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Home My WebLink About2012-08-14 PACKET 07.3COTTAGE GROVE DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL Prepared for City of Cottage Grove September 2009 o °i °❑ MCCOMB GROUP Ltd ❑ ❑❑ R E TAI L R C S O N S U L T A N T S COTTAGE GROVE RETAIL POTENTIAL Cottage Grove's two retail areas serve the growing southeast Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Cottage Grove, established in 1843, has a rich heritage and an expanding future. Factors that support retail and service development in Cottage Grove include: ♦ Cottage Grove's retail areas, anchored by Target, Kohl's, Cub Foods, Rainbow Foods, and Menards, contain 66 retail stores and 77 service establishments. ♦ Cottage Grove's trade area had a 2008 population of 84,064 living in 30,758 households, which are projected to increase to 34,150 in 2013. ♦ Average trade area household income was estimated at $85,084 in 2008 and is expected to increase to $96,413 by 2013. ♦ In 2008, over half of trade area households had incomes above $75,000, which is expected to increase to 60 percent by 2013. ♦ Trade area households with incomes above $100,000 in 2008 were estimated at 10,560 and are expected to increase to 14,541 in 2013, a 6.6 percent rate of growth. ♦ In 2008, 17,433 trade area residents had a college and/or a graduate degree. This group is expected to increase to 21,497 in 2013, a 4.3 percent annual increase. ♦ Over half of the trade area population will be in the prime working age of 25 to 65 in 2013. ♦ Homeownership exceeds 90 percent in Cottage Grove and 81 percent in the trade area. ♦ Nineteen major area employers have an average of over 5,500 employees. ♦ Cottage Grove employment was 6,673 and trade area employment was 24,148 in 2008. ♦ Cottage Grove's two retail areas benefit from high traffic counts on Highway 61: 40,500 average daily trips at 80 Street and 32,500 trips at Jamaica Avenue. ♦ Highway 61 has been upgraded to freeway status by recently completed interchanges improving regional access. ♦ Regional access will be further increased by completion of the expanded I -494 river crossing and interchange with Highway 61. ♦ Improved accessibility will increase business and residential development within Cottage Grove's trade area Cottage Grove's positive economic attributes, trade area population, and upper income households provide support for expanded retail stores, restaurants and services. Significant trade area demographics are contained in Tables through Demographic comparisons are also provided for City of Cottage Grove, Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA and United States. Full demographic comparisons are attached. 1 80TH STREET RETAIL AREA Anchored by Kohl's and Rainbow, this retail area contains 36 retail stores and 45 service establishments and has land for more. Traffic counts on Highway 61 average 40,500 daily trips north of 80th Street and 32,500 daily trips to the south. Daily traffic counts on 80th Street or 23,200 east of Highway 61 and 21,500 to the west. Daily traffic counts on Highway 61 are estimated at 62,000 and 52,000 trips north and south of 80th Street, respectively. Table 1 80TH STREET RETAIL AREA TRAFFIC COUNTS 2007 AND 2030 Actual Estimated Location 2007 2030 Highway 61 North of 80th St 40,500 62,000 South of 80th Street 32,500 52,000 80th Street S. East of Highway 61 23,200 25,000 West of Highway 61 21,500 24,000 * Traffic counts are for 2006. N /A: Not Available. Source: Minnesota Department of Transportation and McComb Group, Ltd. 2 Percent Change 2007 -30 53.1 % 60.0 7.8 % 11.6 I f I i ri�°9"rl Y:a -- t` rA JAMAICA RETAIL AREA Ok The Jamaica retail area, anchored by Target, Cub Foods, and Menards, is expanding south toward Keats Avenue. The area includes 30 retailers and 32 services. Traffic counts on Highway 61 averaged 32,500 north of Jamaica Avenue and 28,500 south of Keats Avenue in 2006. Traffic counts averaged 19,400 on Jamaica cast of Highway 61. In 2030, average daily traffic counts on Highway 61 are estimated at 52,000 north of Jamaica and 38,000 south of Keats Avenue. Table 2 JAMAICA RETAIL, AREA TRAFFIC COUNTS 2007 AND 2030 * Traffic counts are for 2006. N /A: Not Available. Source: Minnesota Department of Transportation and McComb Group, Ltd ■ i i � t ', 6¢ii w_ no t� i� 3 Percent Actual Estimated Change Location 2007 2030 2007 -30 Highway 61 North of Jamaica Ave 32,500 52,000 60.0 % South of Jamaica Ave 24,100 N/A N/A South of Keats Ave 28,500 38,000 33.3 Jamaica Avenue East of Highway 61 19,400 21,000 8.2 % West of Highway 61 9,300 N/A N/A Innovation Rd./Keats Ave. East of Highway 61 5,600 22,000 292.9 % West of Highway 61 2,800 N/A N/A * Traffic counts are for 2006. N /A: Not Available. Source: Minnesota Department of Transportation and McComb Group, Ltd ■ i i � t ', 6¢ii w_ no t� i� 3 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA Inke SY m by ` 1 I \� 1 Jamaica / I Pm caLL Ings Iftaa o es - QTn]aNaa \�/ Z y 7, 009103 W Mc ft Ctouo. Ltd 09n NJ9 Trade area households are expected to increase from 30,758 in 2008 to 34,105 in 2013 2 Table CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE, COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL MSA AND USA POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS _ 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS, 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED Minneapolis Cottage Grove Trade Ana St Paul MIA USA Populztim 1990 23,683 57,134 2,537,67 247,051,287 2000 30,582 74,266 2,968,806 279,583,437 2008E 33,381 &4,064 3,240,886 303,325,997 2013E 35,017 90,541 3,402,621 317,839,296 Annual Growth Rafe 1990 to 2000 259 ob 266 ob 1 58 ob 1.24 % 2000 W 2008E 1.10 156 1.10 1.02 2008 W 2013E 0.96 150 098 094 Householtls 1990 7,148 18,737 959,070 91,402,228 2000 9,932 25,608 1,136,615 104,855,261 2008E 11,523 30,758 1,257,939 112,959,995 2013E 12,457 34,105 1,331,186 117,948,697 Annual Growth Rate 1990 W 2000 3.34 ob 3.17 % 171 ob 1 38 ob 2000 W 2008E 1.87 232 1.28 094 2008 W 2013E 1.57 209 1.14 0.87 So— us.Ce—mds' —ets, 2 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA 2013 HOUSEHOLD DENSITY CoWr lhM 2009 b McComb Group, Ltd 08 /9M09 Cottage Grove's retail areas are surroundedby areas with high household density. HOMEOWNERSHIP Cottage Grove and its trade area have a high level of homeownership and a low level of vacancy. Table 4 HOUSING UNITS; 2008 AND 2013 CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE, COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL VISA AND USA Minneapolis - Cottage Grove Trade Area St. Paul VISA USA Housng Units Number Percent Number Percent Percent Percent 2008 ® b ^.St -— ��D Owned 10,627 90.2 % 28905 81.7 p% Household oeniry -- % Rented • au" "7 a 4,853 on a e.. 22.3 28.4 Vacant 263 2.2 es -scat s�n9s 4.6 F �B48 -tIW L - Total 11,786 100.0 % 5 170 Y % 100.0 CoWr lhM 2009 b McComb Group, Ltd 08 /9M09 Cottage Grove's retail areas are surroundedby areas with high household density. HOMEOWNERSHIP Cottage Grove and its trade area have a high level of homeownership and a low level of vacancy. Table 4 HOUSING UNITS; 2008 AND 2013 CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE, COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL VISA AND USA Smuce S, Jus ac 5 Minneapolis - Cottage Grove Trade Area St. Paul VISA USA Housng Units Number Percent Number Percent Percent Percent 2008 Owned 10,627 90.2 % 28905 81.7 p% 70.5 % 59.3 % Rented 896 7.6 4,853 13.7 22.3 28.4 Vacant 263 2.2 1,613 4.6 7.2 12.3 Total 11,786 100.0 % 35,371 170 100.0 % 100.0 2013 Owned 11,544 90.0 % 32,686 81.4 % 70.6 % 58.8 Rented 913 7.1 5 ,304 13.2 20.1 27.2 Vacant 364 2.8 2,188 5.4 9.3 14.0 Total 12,821 100.0 % 40,178 170 100.0 % 100.0 Smuce S, Jus ac 5 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME ABOVE $75,000; 2013 Households with incomes above $75,000 in 2013 are widely distributed throughout the northern half of the trade area. 6 C yngh =2009 by McComb Gme , Ltd 09111,09 Table 5 CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE, COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS- ST.PAUL VISA AND USA AVERAGE AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED Cottage NEnneapolis- Grove Trade Area St. Paul VISA USA Average Household Income 1990 $ 48,608 $ 45,395 $ 43,726 $ 38,374 2000 71927 75,193 67,713 56,653 2008 83,833 85,084 82,167 68,885 2013 95T36 96,413 91,719 77,329 Median Household Income 1990 $ 45,436 $ 41,769 $ 37,650 $ 30,214 2000 66 65,136 54,601 42,751 2008 82,421 81,687 68,914 53,252 2013 94,107 92,124 77,471 59,343 5owce McComb Gmmg Ltd. 6 C yngh =2009 by McComb Gme , Ltd 09111,09 Households with incomes above $100,000 (estimated at 20,667 in 2013) are located throughout the trade area with higher concentrations located in the northern portion of the trade area. Table 6 CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE, COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS- STYAUL VISA AND USA HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME ABOVE $100,000; 2013 Cottage Minneapolis - Grove Trade Area St. Paul VISA USA Households above $75,000 1990 10.0 % 10.7 % 11.2 % 9.5 % 2000 39.2 36.7 31.5 22.5 2008 58.5 53.4 45.5 33.3 2013 66.3 60.6 51.8 12.9 Households above $100,000 1990 2.4 % 3.8 % 5.0 % 4.4 % 2000 17.2 18.3 169 12.3 2008 36.2 34.3 29.4 20.9 2013 46.4 42.6 36.1 14.4 Households above $150,000 1990 0.4 % 0.8 % 1.8 % 1.6 % 2000 3.4 5.0 5.9 4.6 2008 10.4 12.2 11.5 8.5 2013 15.9 17.5 15.5 11.3 Sobace McComb GmeglAd 7 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME ABOVE $100,000; 2013 AGE Over half (57.1 percent) of the trade area population will be in the prime working age of 25 to 65 in 2013. Table 7 AGE DISTRIBUTION CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE, COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED Source: Scan/Us, Inc EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Almost half of the trade area population age 25 and above are projected to hold a college and /or graduate or professional degree in 2013. Table 8 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA; 2000, 2008 AND 2013 Category Cottage Grove Trade Area Population 25 yrs+ No HS Diploma HS Graduate College, no degree Associate degree College degree Graduate/Profdegree source: Scan/US. 2000 2008 2013 Minneapolis- Number Percent Cottage Grove Trade Area St. Paul MSA USA Age Cohort Number Percent Number Percent Percent Percent 2008 5.4 % 2,494 4.3 % 13,969 30.4 14,793 Under 19 11,070 33.2 % 25,799 30.7 % 27.9 % 27.1 % 20 to 24 2,398 7.2 5,625 6.7 6.6 7.0 25 to 34 4,359 13.1 10,452 12.4 13.2 13.3 35 to 44 4,891 14.7 12,179 14.5 15.2 14.0 45 to 54 5,150 15.4 13,379 15.9 15.7 14.5 55 to 64 3,372 10.1 9,144 10.9 11.0 11.2 65 to 74 1,589 4.8 4,736 5.6 5.6 6.7 75 to 84 467 1.4 1,914 2.3 3.3 4.3 85+ 85 0.3 836 1.0 1.5 1.9 2013 Under 19 11,065 33.1 % 26,478 31.5 % 27.2 % 26.2 % 20 to 24 2,595 7.8 6,118 7.3 6.7 6.8 25 to 34 4,793 14.4 11,716 13.9 12.6 13.4 35 to 44 4,119 12.3 10,681 12.7 13.4 12.9 45 to 54 5,285 15.8 13,938 16.6 15.3 14.2 55 to 64 4,227 12.7 11,684 13.9 12.9 12.5 65 to 74 2,203 6.6 6,615 7.9 7.1 7.9 75 to 84 624 1.9 2,448 2.9 3.4 4.4 85+ 106 0.3 861 1.0 1.3 1.8 Source: Scan/Us, Inc EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Almost half of the trade area population age 25 and above are projected to hold a college and /or graduate or professional degree in 2013. Table 8 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA; 2000, 2008 AND 2013 Category Cottage Grove Trade Area Population 25 yrs+ No HS Diploma HS Graduate College, no degree Associate degree College degree Graduate/Profdegree source: Scan/US. 2000 2008 2013 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent 45,943 52,639 57,942 3,454 7.5 % 2,861 5.4 % 2,494 4.3 % 13,969 30.4 14,793 28.1 15,518 26.8 12,247 26.7 12,177 23.1 12,167 21.0 4,025 8.8 5,375 10.2 6,266 10.8 8,746 19.0 12,178 23.1 14,807 25.6 3,502 7.6 5,255 10.0 6,690 11.5 3 RACE AND ETHNICITY Cottage Grove's trade area population is primarily Caucasian with 89.5 percent in 2008. Table 9 2008 RACE AND ETHNICITY CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE, COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA Cottage Grove Vddtc Black Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Other Races Hispanic (Any Race) Number Percent 29,456 88.2 % 1,313 3.9 103 0.3 1,302 3.9 1,207 3.6 1,242 3.7 Source: Scan/US, Inc. EMPLOYMENT Trade Area Number Percent 75,241 89.5 % 2,448 2.9 267 0.3 3,407 4.1 2,701 3.2 2,547 3.0 Minneapolis- St. Paul MSA V f 83.1 % 7.0 0.5 5.3 4.1 4.8 USA Percent 73.7 % 12.5 0.7 4.6 8.5 15.6 Commercial/Retail Trade employment is the trade area's largest employment category followed by Office, Industrial, and Manufacturing. Cottage Grove's high Commercial Retail Trade presence of Cub Foods, Target, Menards, Kohl's, Rainbow, and other retailers reinforces the city's retail position. Table 10 CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE AND COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA AVERAGE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES, 2008 Industry Industrial Manufacturing Commercial Office Education Medical Public Administration Other Agricultural Total Source: Scan/US, Inc. Cottaee Grove Number Percent 885 13.3 % 442 6.6 2,907 43.6 782 11.7 1,030 15.4 220 357 sn V,u,, 3.3 5.3 0.7 100.0 % Trade Area Number Percent 3,007 12.5 % 2,068 8.6 9,064 37.6 3,769 15.6 2,678 11.1 1,005 4.2 966 4.0 1,374 5.7 193 0.8 24,124 100.0 % 9 OCCUPATIONS White collar occupations represent 60 percent of the daytime population in Cottage Grove and its trade area. Professional Specialty and Executive/Management are among the largest categories. Table 11 CITY OF COTTAGE GROVE AND COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION; 2008 MAJOR EMPLOYERS Nineteen major area employers have average employment of over 5,500. Table 12 MAJOREMPLOYERS 100 EMPLOYEES OR MORE Employer Cottage Grove Trade Area Industry Number Percent Number Percent Wltite Collar Occupations 3,952 60.1 % 14,161 59.5 % Executive /Management 646 16.3 2,466 17.4 Professional Specialty 971 24.6 3,604 25.5 Technical 197 5.0 582 4.1 Sales Professional 134 3.4 700 4.9 Sales Clerical 820 20.7 2,635 18.6 Administrative Support 1,161 29.4 4,135 29.2 Technical/Sales Field 24 0.6 40 0.3 Blue Collar Occupations 2,627 39.9 % 9,645 40.5 % Private Household Workers - - 1 0.0 Protective Services 90 3.4 289 3.0 Service, Other Site 987 37.6 3,635 37.7 Service, Other Field 19 0.7 102 1.1 Agriculture 115 4.4 472 4.9 Crafts/Repair: Site 587 22.3 2,189 22.7 Constmc/Repair/Mining: Field 192 7.3 762 7.9 Machine Operators 186 7.1 692 7.2 Transportation 244 9.3 796 8.3 Laborers 207 7.9 708 7.3 Total 6,579 100.0 % 23,806 100.0 % Source: Sca.JUS,Inc. MAJOR EMPLOYERS Nineteen major area employers have average employment of over 5,500. Table 12 MAJOREMPLOYERS 100 EMPLOYEES OR MORE Employer Employees Employer Employees School District 833 1,081 Rainbow Foods 200 3M Cottage Grove 1,000 Aggregate Industries 165 Bailey Nurseries 700 Super Mom's Bakery 140 Up North Plastics 280 Allma Medical Center 125 Renewal by Anderson 250 City of Cottage Grove 120 Marathon Petroleum Refinery 215 Garelich Manufacturing 105 Target 212 Fritz Company Inc. 100 Cub Foods 208 Werner Electric Supply 100 Commercial Carriers 200 Xcel Energy 100 Menards 200 Souce: MinnesotaDepa entofEmlo} entand Econonie Development DETAILED DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Detailed demographic characteristics for the City of Cottage Grove, Cottage Grove trade area, Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA, and United States are contained in the attached demographic appendix. 10 COTTAGE GROVE RETAIL POTENTIAL Cottage Grove and its trade area have the potential to support a wide variety of additional retail stores, restaurants and services. Estimated sales potential by retail store category is contained in Table 13 for 2010 and 2015. Sales potential is based on estimated trade area purchasing power, market share and inflow sales from shoppers living outside the trade area. Market share for Cottage Grove retailers ranges from 20 percent to 75 percent depending on store type, and inflow sales range from 5 percent to 30 percent. Sales potential includes existing retailers in Cottage Grove. Space occupied and sales productivity of existing stores should be taken into consideration in determining additional store demand. However, most all categories show potential for additional stores indicating an opportunity to expand merchandising offerings across a broad range of shopping goods, convenience goods, food service and services. Table 13 COTTAGE GROVERETAIL SALES POTENTIAL; 2010 AND 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Category 2010 2015 CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores Supermarkets $ 117,393,000 $ 140,861,000 Convenience food 1,209,000 1,452,000 Specialty food stores 1,652,000 1,982,000 Meat Markets 551,000 661,000 Fish & Seafood Markets 200,000 240,000 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 351,000 420,000 Other Specialty Food Stores 551,000 661,000 Baked Goods 200,000 240,000 Confectionery and Nut Stores 151,000 180,000 All Other Specialty Food Stores 200 240,000 Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores $ 30,607,000 $ 36,726,000 Hardware 3,705,000 4,445,000 Liquor 6,615,000 7,938,000 Florist 1,287,000 1,545,000 Food/health supplement stores 429,000 515,000 Food Service Full- service restaurants $ 16,080,000 $ 19,295,000 Limited service restaurants 13,905,000 16,684,000 Snack & beverage places 2,039,000 2,446,000 Specialized food places 4,219,000 5,062,000 Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores $ 46,317,000 $ 55,577,000 Other Gras Stations & Truck Stops 5,289,000 6,346,000 OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Home centers $ 29,392,000 $ 35,267,000 Paint, glass &wallpaper 2,646,000 3,175,000 Other building materials dealers 66,827,000 80,187,000 Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment 1,101,000 1,321,000 Retail nurseries, lawn & garden 4,705,000 5,646,000 Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts & accessories stores $ 11,728,000 $ 14,073,000 Tire dealers 4,506,000 5,406,000 11 Table 13 (continued) COTTAGE GROVE RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL; 2010 AND 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Category 2010 2015 SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores Discount stores $ 63,621,000 $ 76,340,000 Department Stores 19,192,000 23,028,000 Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters $ 37,121,000 $. 44,544,000 Variety stores 751,000 901,000 Miscellaneous general mdse. 3,705,000 4,445,000 Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys $ 584,000 $ 700,000 Women clothing 2,820,000 3,384,000 Children's & infant 681,000 817,000 Family clothing 6,679,000 8,013,000 Clothing accessories stores 227,000 272,000 Other clothing stores 875,000 1,051,000 Shoe Stores Men's $ 116,000 $ 139,000 Women's 140,000 168,000 Children's & infant 65,000 77,000 Family shoe stores 1,103,000 1,323,000 Athletic footwear 519,000 623,000 Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture $ 6,929,000 $ 8,315,000 Floor coverings 3,525,000 4,231,000 Window treatment stores 163,000 195,000 All other home furnishings stores 3,241,000 3,891,000 Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores $ 4,516,000 $ 5,419,000 Radio, tv & electronics stores 21,274,000 25,529,000 computers &Software 5,991,000 7,190,000 Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods $ 5,187,000 $ 6,224,000 General Line Sporting Gds. 2,229,000 2,675,000 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 2,959,000 3,549,000 Book stores & newsdealers 1,661,000 1,993,000 Stationery Stores and Office Supply 4,944,000 5,932,000 Musical Instrument & Supplies 1,095,000 1,313,000 Jewelry stores 2,796,000 3,355,000 Hobby, toy & game 2,027,000 2,432,000 Camera & photographic supply 932,000 1,119,000 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 2,593,000 3,112,000 Luggage & leather goods 163,000 195,000 Sewing, needlework & piece goods 1,013,000 1,216,000 Pet stores 1,500,000 1,799,000 Art dealers 365,000 437,000 Optical goods stores 1,216,000 1,459,000 Pre - Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs 735,000 881,000 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 721,000 867,000 All other health & personal care 1,500,000 1,799,000 12 Table 13 (continued) COTTAGE GROVE RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL; 2010 AND 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Category 2010 2015 Personal Care Services 274,000 Video tape and disc rental Beauty shops $ 6,733,000 $ 7,914,000 Nail salons 379,000 445,000 Diet& weight reducing services 582,000 685,000 Drycleaning and Laundry Services $ 2,235,000 Coin - operated laundries & drycleaners $ 816,000 $ 959,000 Drycleaning & laundry services (except coin -op.) 1,807,000 2,124,000 Other Personal Services Golf courses andcountry clubs One Hour Photo FinisMng $ 321,000 $ 376,000 Child Day Care Services 6,238,000 7,332,000 Photographic Studios 1,953,000 2,295,000 Veteranarian Services. 3,906,000 4,591,000 Pet Care 582,000 685,000 Rental and Leasing Formalwear and costume rental $ 233,000 $ 274,000 Video tape and disc rental 2,128,000 2,501,000 Recreation Bowling centers $ 2,235,000 $ 2,627,000 Physical fitness facilites 10,882,000 12,791,000 Golf courses andcountry clubs 7,871,000 9,251,000 Automotive Repair and Maintenance General automotive repair $ 10,056,000 $ 11,820,000 Automotive transmission repair 641,000 754,000 Brake, front end & wheel alignment 495,000 582,000 Paint or body repair shops 7,142,000 8,394,000 Automotive glass replacement 2,186,000 2,569,000 Automotive oil change & lubrication shops 1,049,000 1,234,000 Carwashes 1,312,000 1,541,000 Health Care Offices of physicians Offices of physicians (except mental health specialists) $ 19,773,000 $ 23,241,000 Offices of physicians, mental health specialists 454,000 533,000 Offices of dentists 14,899,000 17,512,000 Offices of chiropractors 3,013,000 3,541,000 Offices of optometrists 962,000 1,131,000 Offices of mental health practitioners (except physicians) 758,000 891,000 Source: McCombaoW,Ltd 13 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA RESIDENTIAL TOUR The dynamic characteristics of Cottage Grove's trade area can be best visualized by driving its various neighborhoods. These neighborhoods contain a wide variety of housing ranging from large lot suburban estates, upper bracket homes, modern subdivisions, and older well - maintained neighborhoods. Portions of the trade area are depicted on individual maps with photos of typical homes in these neighborhoods. Route directions, follow the maps and photos. To Be Completed 14 Table A -1 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS: 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED Trade Area/ Year Cottage Grove Trade Area 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E Population Rate of Number Change Households Rate of Number Change Minneapolis -St Paul MSA 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E USA 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E 57,134 N/A 18,737 N/A 74,266 2.66 % 25,608 3.17 % 84,064 1.56 30,758 2.32 90,541 1.50 34,105 2.09 2,537,677 N/A 959,070 N/A 2,968,806 1.58 % 1,136,615 1.71 % 3,240,886 1.10 1,257,939 1.28 3,402,621 0.98 1,331,186 1.14 247,051,287 N/A 91,402,228 N/A 279,583,437 1.24 % 104,855,261 1.38 % 303,325,997 1.02 112,959,995 0.94 317,839,296 0.94 117,948,697 0.87 N /A: Not Available. E: Estimated. Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. Table A -2 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA AVERAGE AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED E: Estimated. Source: U.S. Census, ScantUS and McComb Group, Ltd. Cottage Minneapolis- Grove St Panl Income Type / Year Trade Area MSA USA Average Household Income 1990 $ 45,395 $ 43,726 $ 38,374 2000 75,193 67,713 56,653 2008 E 85,084 82,167 68,885 2013 E 96,413 91,719 77,329 Median Household Income 1990 $ 41,769 $ 37,650 $ 30,214 2000 65,136 54,601 42,751 2008 E 81,687 68,914 53,252 2013 E 92,124 77,471 59,343 E: Estimated. Source: U.S. Census, ScantUS and McComb Group, Ltd. Table A -3 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA HOUSEHOLD INCOME : 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Cottage Grove Trade Ares N/A Households N/A Average Size N/A Household Income N/A Median $ Average $ Households Above $50,000 N/A Households Above $75,000 N/A Income Distribution N/A Less than $15,000 N/A $15,000 - $24,999 N/A $25,000 - $34,999 N/A $35,000 - $49,999 N/A $50,000 - $74,999 N/A $75,000 - $99,999 N/A $100,000 - $149,999 N/A $150,000+ 36.0 % Minneapolis -St Paul MSA 64.6 % Households 74.9 % Average Size 78.8 % Household Income 10.7 Median $ Average $ Households Above $50,000 60.6 Households Above $75,000 10.8 % Income Distribution 4.6 % Less than $15,000 3.2 % $15,000 - $24,999 2.9 % $25,000 - $34,999 11.9 $35,000 - $49,999 6.6 $50,000 - $74,999 4.5 $75,000 - $99 3.4 $100,000 - $149,999 15.2 $150,000+ 9.6 USA 6.3 Households 91, Average Size 26.1 Household Income 14.6 Median $ Average $ Households Above $50,000 22, Households Above $75,000 8, Income Distribution 21.4 Less than $15,000 22, $15,000 - $24,999 16, $25,000 - $34,999 14, $35,000 - $49,999 16, $50,000 - $74,999 13, $75,000- $99,999 4, $100,000 - $149,999 2, $150,000+ 1, NIA r Not Available cr Not Applicable 25.2 E Estimated. 0.8 Source U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb (Nong Nd 18,737 N/A 25,608 N/A 30,758 N/A 34,105 N/A 3.02 N/A 2.87 N/A 2.71 N/A 2.63 N/A 41,769 N/A $ 65,136 N/A $ 81,687 N/A $ 92,124 N/A 45,395 N/A $ 75,193 N/A $ 85,084 N/A $ 96,413 N/A 6,739 36.0 % 16,524 64.6 % 23,024 74.9 % 26,883 78.8 % 2,005 10.7 9,390 36.7 16,432 53.4 20,667 60.6 2,013 10.8 % 1,183 4.6 % 993 3.2 % 997 2.9 % 2,223 11.9 1,694 6.6 1,370 4.5 1,145 3.4 2,850 15.2 2,450 9.6 1,950 6.3 1,767 5.2 4,889 26.1 3,745 14.6 3,412 11.1 3,310 9.7 4,733 25.3 7,134 27.9 6,592 21.4 6,216 18.2 1,291 6.9 4,695 18.3 5,872 19.1 6,126 18.0 562 3.0 3,414 13.3 6,818 22.2 8,585 25.2 152 0.8 1,281 5.0 3,742 12.2 5,956 17.5 959,070 N/A 1,136,615 N/A 1,257,939 N/A 1,331,186 N/A 2.59 N/A 2.56 N/A 2.52 N/A 2.50 N/A 37,650 N/A $ 54,601 N/A $ 68,914 N/A $ 77,471 N/A 43,726 N/A $ 67,713 N/A $ 82,167 N/A $ 91,719 N/A 296,277 31.0 % 623,000 54.8 % 827,201 65.8 % 939,817 70.6 % 107,670 11.2 357,670 31.5 571,933 45.5 689,879 51.8 158,154 16.5 % 104,519 9.2 % 79,388 6.3 % 73,541 5.5 % 145,153 15.2 104,638 9.2 87,079 6.9 73,714 5.5 151,215 15.8 125,123 11.0 100,158 8.0 90,894 6.8 206,404 21.6 179,335 15.8 164,113 13.0 153,220 11.5 188,607 19.7 265,330 23.3 255,268 20.3 249,938 18.8 59,767 6.2 165,629 14.6 202,035 16.1 209,761 15.8 30,647 3.2 124,954 11.0 225,531 17.9 274,209 20.6 17,256 1.8 67,087 5.9 144,367 11.5 205,909 15.5 402,228 N/A 104,855,261 N/A 112,959,995 N/A 117,94$697 N/A 2.74 N/A 2.59 N/A 2.61 N/A 2.62 N/A 30,214 N/A $ 42,751 N/A $ 53,252 N/A $ 59,343 N/A 38,374 N/A $ 56,653 N/A $ 68,885 N/A $ 77,329 N/A 302,207 24.4 % 44,021,805 42.0 % 59,439,494 52.6 % 68,115,239 57.7 % 644,712 9.5 23,606,167 22.5 37,672,093 33.3 45,527,858 38.6 256,335 24.3 % 16,605,189 15.8 % 13,292,269 11.8 % 12,395,141 10.5 % 036,700 17.5 13,450,479 12.8 11,613,215 10.3 10,126,638 8.6 489,716 15.9 13,435,521 12.8 11,868,530 10.5 11,182,739 9.5 317,430 17.9 17,342,267 16.5 16,746,487 14.8 16,128,940 13.7 657,495 14.9 20,415,638 19.5 21,767,401 19.3 22,587,381 19.2 650,869 5.1 10,725,335 10.2 13,991,947 12.4 15,166,909 12.9 564,096 2.8 8,084,326 7.7 14,046,315 12.4 16,990,943 14.4 429,747 1.6 4,796,506 4.6 9,633,831 8.5 13,370,006 11.3 Table A -4 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE; 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED N /A. Not Available or Not Applicable E'. Evacuated Source U.S. Census, ScaNUS and McComb Croup,Ltd 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Cottage Grove Trade Ares Households 18,737 25,608 30,758 34,105 Families 15,408 20,176 22,840 24,437 As Percent of Households 82.2 % 78.8 % 74.3 % 71.7 % Household Sim 1Person N/A N/A %- 4,192 16.4 % 6,384 20.8 % 7,957 23.3 % 2 Per sons N/A N/A 8,171 31.9 9,952 32.4 10,956 32.1 34Persons N/A N/A 9,995 39.0 11,024 35.8 11,685 34.3 5+ Persons N/A N/A 3,242 12.7 3,392 11.0 3,506 10.3 Average Household Size 3.02 2.87 2.71 2.63 Minuwpotis -St Paul MSA Households 959,070 1,136,615 1,257,939 1,331,186 Families 648,159 744,303 802,833 835,600 As Percent of Households 67.6 % 65.5 % 63.8 % 62.8 % Household Sim 1 Person N/A N/A % 303,050 26.7 % 363,210 28.9 % 402,038 30.2 % 2 Persons N/A N/A 370,926 32.6 392,001 31.2 403,303 30.3 34Persons N/A N/A 348,717 30.7 377,197 30.0 393,474 29.6 S + Per sons N/A N/A 113,922 10.0 125,531 10.0 132,371 9.9 Average Household Size 2.59 2.56 2.52 2.50 USA Households 91,402,228 104,855,261 112,959,995 117,948,697 Families 64,121,654 71,347,942 74,992,268 77,126,988 As Percent of Households 70.2 % 68.0 % 66.4 % 65.4 % Household Sim 1 Person N/A N/A % 27,089,863 25.8 % 31,421,541 27.8 % 34,210,720 29.0 % 2 Per sons N/A N/A 34,230,383 32.6 33,998,442 30.1 33,762,121 28.6 34Persons N/A N/A 32,207,786 30.7 34,342,886 30.4 35,626,357 30.2 S + Per sons N/A N/A 11,327,229 10.8 13,197,126 11.7 14,349,499 12.2 Average Household Size 2.74 2.59 2.61 2.62 N /A. Not Available or Not Applicable E'. Evacuated Source U.S. Census, ScaNUS and McComb Croup,Ltd Table A -5 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED N /A. Not Available or Not Applicable E Estimated. Source U.S. Census, ScarsUS andMeComb Group, Ltd 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E Attainment Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Cottage Grove Trade Area No College 12,664 42.7 % 13,969 32.9 % 14,793 29.7 % 15,518 28.0 % Some College/2 yr. Degree 10,512 35.4 12,247 28.8 12,177 24.5 12,167 21.9 College Graduate 4,952 16,7 12,771 30.1 17,553 35.3 21,074 38.0 Graduate School 1,552 5.2 3,502 8.2 5,255 10.6 6,690 12.1 Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA No College 492,784 35.2 % 482,956 28.0 % 523,934 26.3 % 539,093 29.2 % Some College/2 yr. Degree 474,114 339 606,761 35.2 654,990 32.9 379,875 20.6 College Graduate 308,932 22.1 440,355 25.6 549,385 27.6 615,548 33.4 Graduate School 122,945 8.8 192,417 11.2 264,724 13.3 309,889 16.8 USA No College 47,207,515 39.9 % 51,777,198 35.6 % 61,208,898 36.0 % 67,309,697 36.2 % Some College/2 yr. Degree 39,130,457 33.1 49,433,254 34.0 53,301,502 31.4 55,668,256 29.9 College Graduate 20,603,802 17.4 28,072,442 19.3 35,070,821 20.6 39,641,516 21.3 Graduate School 11,363,269 9.6 16,028,464 11,0 20,408,719 12.0 23,281,642 12.5 N /A. Not Available or Not Applicable E Estimated. Source U.S. Census, ScarsUS andMeComb Group, Ltd Table A -6 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA GENDER AND MARITAL STATUS: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED N /A. Not Available cr N,A Applicable E'. Estimated Source : U.S. Census, ScarNUS and McComb CNcug Ltd 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E Ekhnicity Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Cottage Grove Trade Area Gender Male 28,671 50.2 % 36,899 49.7 % 42,004 50.0 % 45,369 50.1 % Female 28,463 49.8 37,367 50.3 42,060 50.0 45,172 49.9 Marital Status Single 14,446 35.0 % 1,003 4.7 % 1,150 5.0 % 1,251 5.1 % Single With Children N/A N/A 2,259 10.7 3,153 13.8 3,757 15.4 Married 26,795 65.0 17,864 84.6 18,529 81.2 19,423 79.5 Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA Gender Male 1,241,505 48.9 1,466,277 49.4 1,609,949 49.7 1,695,368 49.8 Female 1,296,172 51.1 1,502,529 50.6 1,630,937 50.3 1,707,253 50.2 Marital Status Single 880,243 44.8 % 49,097 6.6 % 51,187 6.4 % 52,121 6.2 % Single With Children N/A N/A 102,069 13.7 127,980 15.9 144,627 17.3 Married 1,082,905 55.2 593,137 79.7 623,666 77.7 638,852 76.5 USA Gender Male 120,385,660 48.7 % 137,120,780 49.0 % 149,506,096 49.3 % 157,059 49.4 % Female 126,665,627 51.3 142,462,657 51.0 153,819,901 50.7 160,779,928 50.6 Marital Status Single 87,652,149 45.2 % 5,857,127 8.2 % 6,583,707 8.8 % 7,037,473 9.1 % Single With Children N/A N/A 11,329,978 15.9 12,912,875 17.2 13,897,835 18.0 Married 106,219,419 54.8 54,160,837 75.9 55,495,686 74.0 56,191,680 72.9 N /A. Not Available cr N,A Applicable E'. Estimated Source : U.S. Census, ScarNUS and McComb CNcug Ltd Table A -7 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA AGE DISTRIBUTION: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E Age Distribution Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Cottage Grove Trade Area Under 5 4,961 8.7 % 6,009 8.1 % 7,216 8.6 % 6,489 7.2 % 5 -9 5,670 9.9 6,496 8.7 5,816 6.9 7,360 8.1 10 -14 5,198 9.1 6,417 8.6 6,131 7.3 5,866 6.5 15 -19 4,160 7.3 5,866 7.9 6,637 7.9 6,764 7.5 20 -24 3,257 5.7 3,532 4.8 5,625 6.7 6,118 6.8 25 -34 10,525 18.4 10,790 14.5 10,452 12.4 11,716 12.9 35-44 9,884 17.3 13,800 18.6 12,179 14.5 10,681 11.8 45 -54 6,061 10.6 10,453 14.1 13,379 15.9 13,938 15.4 55 -64 3,906 6.8 5,635 7.6 9,144 10.9 11,684 12.9 65 -74 2,053 3.6 3,229 4.3 4,736 5.6 6,615 7.3 75+ 1,455 2.5 2,035 2.7 2,750 3.3 3,309 3.7 25-64 30,376 53.2 % 40,679 54.8 % 45,154 53.7 % 48,019 53.0 % 65 and Over 3,508 6.1 5,264 7.1 7,486 8.9 9,924 11.0 Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA Under 5 205,848 8.1 % 212,810 7.2 % 233,587 7.2 % 242,228 7.1 % 5 -9 197,284 7.8 225,355 7.6 221,818 6.8 234,741 6.9 10-14 171,429 6.8 225,652 7.6 223,107 6.9 224,453 6.6 15 -19 162,444 6.4 209,863 7.1 224,907 6.9 225,734 6.6 20 -24 193,287 7.6 193,790 6.5 215,101 6.6 227,022 6.7 25 -34 510,323 20.1 457,105 15.4 427,683 13.2 429,651 12.6 35 -44 414,646 16.3 528,024 17.8 493,408 15.2 455,647 13.4 45 -54 252,397 9.9 405,724 13.7 509,681 15.7 522,092 15.3 55 -64 180,054 7.1 225,540 7.6 357,268 11.0 439,142 12.9 65 -74 138,743 5.5 145,808 4.9 180,663 5.6 241,769 7.1 75+ 111,076 4.4 139,135 4.7 153,663 4.7 160,142 4.7 25 -64 1,357,420 53.5 % 1,616,393 54.4 % 1,788,040 55.2 % 1,846,532 54.3 % 65 and Over 249,819 9.8 284,943 9.6 334,326 10.3 401,911 11.8 USA Under 18,216,323 7.4 % 19,050,045 6.8 % 20,494,428 6.8 % 21,193,910 6.7 % 5 -9 17,966,536 7.3 20,410,754 7.3 20,018,948 6.6 20,781,909 6.5 10-14 16,997,174 6.9 20,388,305 7.3 20,344,733 6.7 20,450,743 6.4 15 -19 17,644,373 7.1 20,088,794 7.2 21,310,435 7.0 20,770,812 6.5 20 -24 18,888,290 7.6 18,840,701 6.7 21,251,288 7.0 21,696,465 6.8 25 -34 42,862,271 17.3 39,631,091 14.2 40,455,427 13.3 42,529,557 13.4 35 -44 37,297,467 15.1 44,843,302 16.0 42,606,855 14.0 41,072,396 12.9 45 -54 25,060,382 10.1 37,412,020 13.4 43,934,215 14.5 45,012,335 14.2 55 -64 21,024,328 8.5 24,122,973 8.6 33,903,372 11.2 39,645,532 12.5 65 -74 18,012,357 7.3 18,283,216 6.5 20,239,446 6.7 25,149,034 7.9 75+ 13,082,100 5.3 16,512,236 5.9 18,766,850 6.2 19,536,603 6.1 25-64 126,244,448 51.1 % 146,009,386 52.2 % 160,899,869 53.0 % 168,259,820 52.9 % 65 and Over 31,094,457 12.6 34,795,452 12.4 39,006,296 12.9 44,685,637 14.1 E'_ Estimated Source : U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. Table A -8 COTTAGE GROVE TRADE AREA, MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AND USA ETHNICITY: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2008 AND 2013 ESTIMATED E'. EstmaUd. Source U.S. Cmsns, ScanNS end McComb Gro , Ltd 1990 2000 2008 E 2013 E Ethnicity Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Cottage Grove Trade Area Caucasian 55,569 97.3 % 70,080 96.3 % 75,241 92.5 % 78,317 90.3 % African- American 449 0.8 1,206 1.7 2,448 3.0 3,319 3.8 Native American 167 0.3 274 0.4 267 0.3 249 0.3 Asian/Pacific Islander 609 1.1 1,206 lJ 3,360 4.1 4,819 5.6 Other 339 0.6 29 0.0 47 0.1 52 0.1 Hispanic(avy race) 815 1.4% 1,554 2.1 % 2,547 3.1 % 3,182 3.7% Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA Caucasian 2,342,781 92.3 % 2,556,851 88.9% 2,694,518 83.1 % 2,772,352 81.5 % African- American 90,055 3.5 157,963 5.5 225,712 7.0 267,653 7.9 Native American 24,248 1.0 21,590 0.8 16,236 0.5 13,807 0.4 Asian/Pacific Islander 65,582 2.6 30,938 1.1 171,412 5.3 200,622 5.9 Other 15,011 0.6 108,377 3.8 133,008 4.1 148,187 4.4 Hispanic (any race) 37,820 1.5 % 99,121 3.4% 154,944 4.8% 189,690 5.6 % USA Caucasian 198,900,843 80.5 % 210,731,990 75.4% 223,636,967 73.7 % 231,409,983 72.8% African- American 29,936,414 12.1 34,614,400 12.4 37,818,455 12.5 39,844,217 12.5 Native American 1,868,437 0.8 2,374,378 0.8 2,251,068 0.7 2,198,583 0.7 Asian/Pacific Islander 6,568,561 2.7 9,996,001 3.6 13,935,164 4.6 16,372,754 5.2 Other 9,777,032 4.0 21,866,668 7.8 25,684,343 8.5 28,013,759 8.8 Hispanic (any race) 22,254,866 9.0% 35,192,267 12.6% 47,170,822 15.6 % 54,642,921 17.2% E'. EstmaUd. Source U.S. Cmsns, ScanNS end McComb Gro , Ltd