HomeMy WebLinkAbout2013-05-20 PACKET 06.3.STAFF REPORT CASE: C13 -014
ITEM: 6.3
PLANNING COMMISSION MEETING DATE: 5/20/13
APPLICATION
APPLICANT:
Rygh LLC
REQUEST:
Concept plan for a proposed senior housing building that will consist of
a total of 66 units (54 congregate living and 12 memory care).
SITE DATA
LOCATION:
Pine Arbor Drive at the northwest intersection of 70th Street and
Hinton Avenue
ZONING:
PUD, Planned Unit Development
CONTIGUOUS
LAND USE:
NORTH:
Commercial
EAST:
Residential
SOUTH:
Religious
WEST:
Commercial
SIZE:
4.38 acres
DENSITY:
N/A
RECOMMENDATION
Review.
COTTAGE GROVE PLANNING DIVISION
Planning Staff Contact: John M. Burbank, Senior Planner, 651- 458 -2825 or 0 burbank(c)_cottage- g rove. org
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Concept Plan Review
Case No. C13 -014
May 20, 2013
Proposal
Rygh LLC has submitted a concept sketch for an amendment to the existing Planned Unit Develop-
ment (PUD) for the Summerhill development to include senior housing in place of 21,700 square
feet of retail and 5,000 square feet of restaurant. The senior housing would consist of 54 units of
congregate care and 12 units of memory care. The property is simply described as lying north of
70th Street (CSAH 22), west of Hinton Avenue, and south of Pine Arbor Lane. The Property is cur-
rently owned by Rygh LLC and ECUMEN would be the operational partner on the proposed project.
After receiving feedback on this Concept Plan, the developer will apply for a zoning amendment
and site plan review.
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 2 of 11
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FIRST.ELOOR /SITE PLAN 70TH STREET SOUTH (C.S.A.H. 22) �—
Concept Sketch
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 3 of 11
txisting site wan
Concept Plan Background
In 2002, the site was originally approved for a senior housing building in the northwest corner of
the site. This PUD site plan was later amended in 2004 for the construction of the current medical
building. The 2004 site plan, which identifies the previous senior housing location, is shown be-
low. This detail was from Planning staff Report ZA04 -042, which was related to the relocation of
the Holiday Station to its current site.
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 4 of 11
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The Applicant's concept was shared with the City's Technical Review Committee. Some of the
comments that were voiced when that group met were:
• Which use will better serve the neighborhood in the long run: the existing retail and res-
taurant spaces or senior housing?
• Is the site big enough for the proposed use?
• Would the scale of the building be too imposing on adjacent residential uses?
• What would public safety impacts be?
t'
(VW,
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 5 of 11
• What are the tax ramifications?
• Can the proposed use incorporate retail and restaurant into the design?
• Does the concept allow room for a landscaped water feature on the corner?
Neighborhood Meeting
On May 8, 2013, a neighborhood meeting was hosted by the applicant. There were approximately
30 neighbors in attendance with the majority from the Pine Arbor Town Home Association. The
balance was from the Highlands neighborhood across Hinton Avenue. City staff attended the
meeting and noted comments on the following themes:
• Traffic implications
• Traffic control measures at intersection of 70th and Hinton under current conditions
• Traffic control measures at intersection of 70th and Hinton under future conditions
• Disapproval of the county's current restricted access requirements at 70th Street and
Pine Arbor Drive
• Disapproval of the current speed limit on Hinton Avenue between 65th Street and 70th
Street
• Market area of proposed use
• Price point of proposed rents
The atmosphere of the meeting seemed to be generally supportive of the proposal, if some of the
stated concerns could be visited and /or addressed.
Planning Considerations
The following sections summarize the components of the concept plan as it relates to existing
zoning ordinance performance standards, the City's Comprehensive Plan, and other adopted
plans.
Property Characteristics
The 4.38 -acre site is currently vacant. An aerial photo of the property is shown below:
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 6 of 11
Land Use
The land use classification for the site and the surrounding three parcels is commercial. The sur-
rounding area is guided for Low Density Residential and consists of the Pine Arbor Neighbor-
hood. The proposed use is consistent with the designated land use.
Land Use Detail
Zoning — Land Use Compliance
The property is zoned Planned Unit Development with an underlying zoning of Neighborhood
Business for the commercially designated sites. Housing for senior adults is a permitted use in all
commercial zoning districts.
The purpose of the Planned Unit Development (PUD) District is to provide a district that will en-
courage flexibility in land development and redevelopment in order to utilize new techniques of
building design, construction, and land development consistent with the Comprehensive Plan.
Provision of lifecycle housing to all income and age groups is an additional qualifier listed in the
purpose statement for this district.
The existing zoning classifications are consistent with the land use classification. This zoning
classification has an approved site plan that is linked to the zoning and would be required to be
amended if the project were to move forward. The conditions within the approving ordinance
would also need to be modified to reflect the proposed use.
Zoning — Lot Width
The existing lot configuration would not be modified as a component of the requested amend-
ment.
Zoning — Lot Setbacks
With Planned Unit Developments, the setback distances can be modified to suit the desired
development. As proposed, the concept plan actually increases the setback distances to the
building in comparison to the current approved site plan.
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 7 of 11
Zoning — Density
The developer's concept includes 66 residential units, which is 18 units less than originally
approved in 2001.
Transportation — Major Road Right -of -Ways /Access
The proposed project is bound by two major roadways that are identified as Minor Arterials in the
City's 2030 Comprehensive Plan. These roads are 70th Street and Hinton Avenue. No additional
access is proposed with the concept plan.
Transportation — Local Roads
The proposed project is accessed off Pine Arbor Drive. The existing intersection of this roadway
with 70th Street is controlled as a right -in /right -out under requirements from Washington County.
Sidewalks
The concept plan includes a private sidewalk that connects the building to Pine Arbor Drive on
the north and south sides of the the parking lot. A minimum width of six feet would be
recommended for this walk.
y .
r
Sldewalk Detail
Trails
There are no bituminous trails included in the Concept Plan.
Landscaping and Buffer Area
There are no landscaping details included with the Concept Plan. If the project were to proceed, a
landscaping and irrigation plan would be required.
Wetlands
There are no wetlands on the subject property.
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 8 of 11
Public Open Space
The development of this property as commercial or senior housing would trigger the same cash
dedication fee requirement, which is four percent of the market rate of the property pre- devel-
opment.
Utilities
The site has public sanitary sewer service available that would accommodate the existing ap-
proved use and the conceptual use.
There is public water service available that would accommodate the existing approved use and
the conceptual use. Based on the proposed height of the building, there was some concern that
there would not be adequate water pressure to serve the top floor efficiently. A preliminary analy-
sis of flow pressures on the site and adjacent area was completed by the City. This information
was shared with the developer and may require internal pumping of water to the higher floors to
mitigate the concerns with water pressure.
When the project was first initiated for this PUD, the stormwater ponding was designed to ade-
quately address the surface water management needs of the entire project area. Since the origi-
nal Summerhill development was constructed, the City has added a volume control requirement
that will not be met by the existing stormwater system. Volume control practices sized to capture
one inch of runoff from the new impervious surface would need to be incorporated into the site to
meet the City's requirement.
Grading
The preliminary grading for the site has been completed with the initial site development and
would require additional cutting and filling of soils in conjunction with construction of the building.
No grading details were given with the concept plan submittal materials.
Tree Preservation
There are no trees on the site to be preserved.
Architecture
The Applicant is working with Pope Architects who designed the Norris Square Senior Building.
The design of the building would be required to be compatible and complementary with the cur-
rent buildings constructed in the PUD. Based on the project being at the concept stage, the arc-
hitectural work to date has been to focus on building massing and sizing versus exterior design
and construction details. A three - dimensional video rendering of the proposed building was com-
pleted and will be shown at the Planning Commission meeting. Excerpts from this work are
included below. This drawing from the north identifies the stepping down of the building height in
order to be more congruous in scale to the adjacent residential structures. This is the memory
care wing.
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 9 of 11
FOOPE
A R C H I T E C T S
View from South
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 10 of 11
Parking
The concept plan details 44 surface parking spaces, four of which are handicap accessible. The
applicant reports that the site would also include 55 underground spaces. The ordinance criteria
require at least 1.5 parking spaces for each unit and notes that the City may require proof of
parking of two spaces per unit if conversion to general housing appears possible. This calculates
to 99 required parking spaces, which is met by the current concept plan.
One suggestion that was raised by a neighbor was that if the project goes through, it would be
wise to require a cross parking easement with the medical building for holidays and other special
events that have higher trip generation due to visitation. The applicant has a financial interest in
the medical building, so securing the easement would not be a major problem. Staff would concur
with this resident - generated suggestion.
Traffic
As with any new development, traffic is a concern that needs to be addressed. The comments
from the neighborhood meeting speak to the concerns regarding traffic volume and level of ser-
vice of Hinton Avenue and 70th Street. A traffic study that was completed for this development in
2001 is included for review, and an updated study would be required if the amendment were to
proceed further past the concept stage.
Market Implications
The Applicant contracted the completion of a market study related to the proposed use. This
study was completed by Viewpoint Consulting group and is attached to this report for reference.
Public Safety Implications
In order to better understand the potential impacts that the proposed use would have on the
Public Safety Department, a review was completed on what the actual level of service require-
ments are for the three existing multi -level senior housing facilities within the community. The
response from the Director of Public Safety is below:
SENIOR HOUSING MEDICAL RESPONSE DATA
2012
2012 Total Public Safety Area Medical Calls 2
11 2012 Total Senior Housin Medical Calls 23] (10097% of total medical calls
ALS
BLS
BLS
NO TRANSPORT
DO NOT
BILL
CANCELLED
TOTAL
WHITE PINES
20
5306%
14
28.57%
0
4
8.16%
5
1020%
49
Amount billeE
$48,880.00
521,420.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$]0,30000
WHITE PINES MEMORY CARE
47
5949%
39
37.97%
0
2
2.53%
0
79
Amountbilled
$88360.00
54590000
$000
5000
$0.00
$134260.00
NORRIS SQUARE
69
63.30%
26
23.85%
2
1.83%
12
11.00%
0
109'
Amountbilled
8129,720.00
$37,78000
$40000
$0.00
50.00
3187,000.00
'15 of 109 calls were m me memory care unit 13.76%
2012 Total Public Safety Area Medical Calls 2
11 2012 Total Senior Housin Medical Calls 23] (10097% of total medical calls
Planning Staff Report
Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan
May 20, 2013
Page 11 of 11
Recommendation
The Planning Commission is asked to provide direction to the developer with respect to the pro-
posed amendment. Any modifications or clarifications will be included in the recommendation that
will be presented at the June 5, 2013, City Council meeting. Subsequent applications would
include conditions of approval.
Prepared by:
John M. Burbank, AICP
Senior Planner
'�!�'40oint
G ' CONSULTING
ROUPim.
Initial Demand Assessment for Senior Housing
in Cottage Grove, Minnesota
Site Location:
70 Street South & Hinton Avenue South
Prepared for:
Custom One Homes
Prepared by:
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Date: February 12, 2013
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. / 9104 Barrington Terrace / Brooklyn Park, MN55443
P.763- 273 -4303 / www.viewpointconsult.com
' CONSULTING
GROUPINC.
February 12, 2013
To: Mike Rygh
Custom One Homes
From: Jay Thompson
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
RE: Initial Demand Assessment for Independent, Assisted Living, and Memory Care
Housing in Cottage Grove, Minnesota
Introduction
This memorandum provides an initial assessment of the demand for market rate senior
housing in Cottage Grove, Minnesota The purpose of this initial assessment is to broadly
assess the depth of demand for senior housing in the local area to determine if potential exists
to support a new development.
Included in this initial assessment are demand calculations for independent, assisted living, and
memory care housing. Potential demand is calculated based on analysis of the income /asset-
qualified target market for senior housing and the supply of competitive senior housing units
serving the primary market area. The ability of the subject development to capture excess
market area demand is discussed in this assessment.
A full market feasibility study, which examines in greater detail the desirability of the Site and
competitive properties and would also provide detailed recommendations on a project concept
and absorption projections, could be conducted at a later date.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. / 9104 Barrington Terrace / Brooklyn Park, MN 55443
P.763- 273 -4303 / www.viewpointconsult.com
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Primary Market Area Definition
The subject site ( "Site ") for the proposed senior housing development is in Cottage Grove,
Minnesota. Cottage Grove is a suburban community of 34,589 people (2010 Census) situated
along the Mississippi River in Washington County. More specifically, the Site is at the
intersection of 70 Street South and Hinton Avenue. It is approximately one mile south of
Cottage Grove's border with Woodbury.
Based on community orientation, traffic patterns, geographic barriers, proximity to other senior
housing properties, and our knowledge of senior housing draw areas, we estimate that a new
senior housing development in Cottage Grove would attract approximately 70% of its residents
from a draw area (Primary Market Area, or "PMA ") that includes Cottage Grove, St. Paul Park,
Newport, Grey Cloud Island, and Denmark Township.
The remaining portion of demand (30 %) would come from outside the PMA, including parents
of adult children living in the PMA and seniors needing affordable senior housing who are
currently living just outside the PMA. A fair amount of the demand from seniors living just
outside the PMA would come from Woodbury because of its close proximity. We do not include
Woodbury in the PMA, however, because most seniors in Woodbury are oriented to senior
housing options that exist in Woodbury.
A map of the PMA is shown on the following page.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 1
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
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February 12, 2013
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Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Demographic Analysis
Tables 1 through 5 on Pages 5 through 7 show key economic and demographic variables related
to the demand for senior housing in the PMA (age distribution of the senior population and
household base, senior household income, senior homeownership rates, and single - family
home resale trends). This demographic data is from ESRI, a national demographics firm, and
adjusted by Viewpoint Consulting Group based on local growth trend data. Home resale data is
from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.
The key demographic and economic findings are summarized on the following pages.
Senior Population and Household Trends
► The total population in the PMA in 2010 was 45,329. The overall population is projected to
grow slightly through 2017 (to 47,800) as home building increases from very low levels the
past several years.
/ In 2010, the senior population (age 65 +) in the PMA was 4,041, an increase from 2,525 in
2000, or +60%).
► Cottage Grove's population of 34,589 in 2010 accounted for 76% of the total PMA
population. Cottage Grove accounted for 70% of the population over age 65 within the
PMA. Newport and St. Paul Park in the PMA have older populations.
/ Between 2012 and 2017, all senior age groups in the PMA will experience strong growth.
The population ages 65 to 74 will grow at a fast pace as the first baby boomers began
turning 65 in 2011. Despite the slower growth of older seniors, the PMA's 75+ population is
still projected to grow by 18% over the next five years.
Senior Household Incomes
► The target market for senior housing with support services is generally senior households
age 75 and older with incomes of at least $30,000 (plus some lower- income senior
homeowners). In 2012, an estimated 566 households age 75 and older had incomes of at
least $30,000. When factoring in inflation, households would generally need incomes of at
least $35,000 to qualify for market rate senior housing with services. Despite growth of the
senior population, the number of income - qualified households in 2017 is projected to
remain stable due to minimal income gains. It should be noted that since assisted living and
memory care housing are predominately need driven, seniors with low incomes are still
candidates for private pay housing if they have home equity or other savings that they can
utilize to pay for the costs.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 3
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Senior Household Tenure
Seniors who own their homes have an additional source of income through the sale of their
home that can be utilized for alternative housing. Upon the sale of their home, the
proceeds can be invested and the income used dollar for dollar as supplementary income
for housing and services. As Table 4 illustrates, as of 2010, a very high percentage of seniors
up to age 84 in the PMA are homeowners. The sharp drop in the homeownership rate
among the age 85+ population highlights how rental housing becomes much more
predominant as seniors' care needs rise and /or they no longer desire to maintain a single -
family home.
Home Value Trends
/ Seniors can use the proceeds from the sale of their home to off -set the cost of senior
housing. Home values in the PMA are average when compared to the metro area. A senior
selling their home for $190,000 (about the median resale price of a single - family home in
Cottage Grove in 2012) could receive an investment return of approximately $440 monthly
from the sale (sale price minus 7% sales agent fees, and a 3% annual return on their
investment). If a senior uses the full home sale proceeds towards the cost of alternative
housing, the home sale proceeds would cover the costs at an assisted living facility ($3,500
per month) for approximately four years. At a memory care facility ($5,000 per month), the
same amount of home sale proceeds would last roughly three years.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 4
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Table 1
Senior Population Growth Trends and Projections
Primary Market Area
2000 to 2017
Table 2
Senior Household Growth Trends and Projections
Primary Market Area
2000 to 2017
Change, 2012 to 2017
Age
2000
2010
2012
2017
No.
Pct.
55 to 59
1,826
2,683
2,834
3,062
228
8.0%
60 to 64
1,252
2,250
2,417
2,683
266
11.0%
65 to 69
966
1,432
1,570
1,940
370
23.6%
70 to 74
730
1,031
1,152
1,499
347
30.2%
75 to 79
448
762
811
966
155
19.1%
80 to 84
223
480
500
555
55
11.0%
85+
158
336
377
466
88
23.5%
Total 65+
2,525
4,041
4,410
5,425
1,016
23.0%
Total 75+
829
1,578
1,688
1,986
298
17.7%
Total Population
41,022
45,329
45,957
47,800
1,843
4.0%
Sources: ESRI; 2000 Census; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Table 2
Senior Household Growth Trends and Projections
Primary Market Area
2000 to 2017
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 5
February 12, 2013
Change, 2012 to 2017
Age
2000
2010
2012
2017
No.
Pct.
55 to 64
1,764
2,809
2,948
3,237
289
9.8%
65 to 74
1,091
1,498
1,635
2,069
434
26.5%
75+
570
1,088
1,148
1,351
203
17.7%
Total 65+
1,661
2,586
2,783
3,420
637
22.9%
Total Households
15,772
15,905
16,815
910
5.7%
Sources: ESRI; 2010 Census; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 5
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Table 3
Household Incomes by Age of Householder
Primary Market Area
2012 and 2017
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 6
February 12, 2013
2012
Households by
Age
Income
55-64
65 -74
75+
<$15,000
152
188
172
$15,000 to $24,999
134
181
265
$25,000 to $34,999
185
214
292
$35,000 to $49,999
365
241
222
$50,000 to $74,999
747
375
125
$75,000 to $99,999
506
194
43
$100,000 to $149,999
534
185
23
$150,000+
325
59
6
Total
2,948
1,635
1,148
Median HH Income
$69,834
$49,531
$28,672
2017:
Households by
Age
Income
55-64
65 -74
75+
<$15,000
143
231
224
$15,000 to $24,999
86
167
278
$25,000 to $34,999
129
204
283
$35,000 to $49,999
317
260
265
$50,000 to $74,999
733
461
168
$75,000 to $99,999
729
353
81
$100,000 to $149,999
679
296
41
$150,000+
421
96
12
Total
3,237
2,069
1,351
Median HH Income
$80,372
$56,907
$30,237
Sources: ESRI; 2010 Census; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 6
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Table 4
Tenure by Age of Householder
Primary Market Area
2010
Table 5
Single - Family Home Values
Cottage Grove
2010 to 2012
owners
Renters
Average Cumulative
Households
No. Pct. No.
Pct.
Days on Market
Age 55 to 64
2,605 92.7%
204
7.3%
Age 65 to 74
1,365 91.1%
133
8.9%
Age 75 to 84
696 83.1%
142
16.9%
Age 85+
138 55.2%
112
44.8%
Total
4,804 89.0%
591
11.0%
Total Age 65+
2,199 85.0%
387
15.0%
Total Age 75+
834 76.7%
254
23.3%
Sources: ESRI; 2010 Census; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
31,082
$167,000
Table 5
Single - Family Home Values
Cottage Grove
2010 to 2012
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. page 7
February 12, 2013
No. of
Median
Average Cumulative
Year
Sales
Sale Price
Days on Market
Cottag ' G,rove . .
2010
327
$190,000
117
2011
315
$177,000
128
2012
475
$189,950
93
Twin Cities Ileglon
2010
28,557
$185,000
127
2011
31,082
$167,000
142
2012
36,893
$184,000
114
Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. page 7
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Senior Housing Supply
Senior Housing Defined
Senior housing encompasses a wide variety of product types. The properties that include the
lowest level of services are adult properties, which offer virtually no support services or health
care, but restrict tenancy to those age 55 and over. Adult properties can be rental or owner -
occupied (attached or detached townhomes, condominiums and cooperatives). Congregate
properties, better known as independent living, offer support services such as meals and
housekeeping. These services are either included in the rent or offered a -la -carte so that
residents can choose whether or not to pay for them. Independent living projects attract an
older and frailer senior population than adult projects (generally seniors age 75 and over).
The most service - intensive housing types are assisted living, memory care, and enhanced care
suites as they offer the highest level of services short of a nursing home. Some of the typical
services they provide are meals, housekeeping, linen changes, personal laundry, 24 -hour
emergency response and a wide range of personal -care and therapeutic services. The meals
and services are either built into the monthly fee, charged through a tiered service package or
offered a -la- carte.
This report provides initial demand calculations for independent, assisted living, and memory
care housing.
Competitive Senior Housing Properties
Table 6 shows the inventory of senior housing properties that would provide competition to a
new development on the Site in Cottage Grove. For each competitive property, Table 6
provides information on location, year built, whether or not it is located in the PMA, its distance
from the Site, its estimated competitiveness and its total competitive units. The competitive
percentage is estimated based on a property's distance from the Site, its location within or near
the PMA, and its community orientation (i.e., its estimated primary draw area). The following
are key highlights about the competitive supply.
A total of six competitive properties were identified in and near the PMA. Only two of the
competitive properties are located in the PMA— White Pine and Norris Square. These two
properties combine for a total of 241 units of independent, assisted living, and memory care
housing. White Pine and Norris Square are both less than two miles from Site and share the
same draw area — hence they are considered 100% competitive and all their units are
competitive.
/ The service level mix of the competitive units located in the PMA is 86 independent units,
84 assisted living units, and 62 memory care units. All of the competitive independent units
are at Norris Square, as White Pine contains only assisted living and memory care housing.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page s
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
► The competitive properties located outside the PMA boundary are all in Woodbury. Other
surrounding properties are located across the Mississippi River in Inver Grove Heights and
Hastings. Since access across the River is limited to a couple bridges, properties in Hastings
and Inver Grove Heights would have limited competitiveness with a new development on
the Site and are not included in Table 6.
► The properties in Woodbury are located over four miles from the Site and to account for
slight draw area overlap, are estimated at 10% competitive. They combine for a total of 34
competitive units (nine independent units, 20 assisted living units, and six memory care
units).
► The closest competitive property is White Pine, located 1.2 miles from the Site. White Pine
consists of an assisted living building that opened in 2008 and a memory care building that
opened in 2011. Norris Square is located 1.6 miles from the Site and has a total of 146 units.
It opened in 2008 and has 86 independent units, 42 assisted living units, and 18 memory
care units.
/ Woodbury Estates and Woodbury Villa are located on the same campus (Woodbury Senior
Living) at Lake Road and Woodlane Drive. Woodbury Health Care Center is also located on
the campus. Woodbury Estates and Woodbury Villa combine for 87 independent units, 139
assisted living units, and eight memory care units. At 10% competitiveness, they supply the
PMA with 14 competitive assisted living units and one competitive memory care units.
/ Stonecrest in Woodbury is a 164 -unit property that opened in 2000. It offers multiple levels
of care and accounting for draw area overlap, supplies the PMA with nine competitive
independent units, six competitive assisted living units, and two competitive memory care
units.
1 Prelude Homes opened in 2011. Accounting for draw area overlap, this property supplies
the PMA with three competitive memory care units.
/ Overall, the properties identified in Table 6 supply the PMA with 95 competitive
independent units, 104 competitive assisted living units, and 68 competitive memory care
units. While the properties are all market rate, a small portion of the residents are lower -
income seniors utilizing the Elderly Waiver program.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 9
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Table 6
Competitive Senior Housing Supply
Primary Market Area
January 2013
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 10
February 12, 2013
Miles
Percent
Year
Number
In the
from
Comp-
Compet-
Property Name
Location
Built
of Units
PMA
Site
etitive'
itive Units
Independent' Living
Norris Square
Cottage Grove
2008
86
Yes
1.6
100%
86
Stonecrest
Woodbury
2000
87
No
4.8
10%
9
Subtotal
173
95
Assisted Living
White Pine
Cottage Grove
2008
42
Yes
1.2
100%
42
Norris Square
Cottage Grove
2008
42
Yes
1.6
100%
42
Woodbury Estates
Woodbury
1998
64
No
4.2
10%
6
Woodbury Villa
Woodbury
1985
75
No
4.2
10%
8
Stonecrest
Woodbury
2000
59
No
4.8
10%
6
Subtotal
282
104
Memory Care
White Pine
Cottage Grove
2011
44
Yes
1.2
100%
44
Norris Square
Cottage Grove
2008
18
Yes
1.6
100%
18
Prelude Homes
Woodbury
2011
30
No
4.0
10%
3
Woodbury Estates
Woodbury
1998
8
No
4.2
10%
1
Stonecrest
Woodbury
2000
18
No
4.8
10%
2
Subtotal
118
68
' Percent Competitive is estimated by the researcher based on the competitive property's distance from the subect Site,
location within /near the PMA, its community orientation,
and
specific characteristics
Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 10
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Competitive Senior Housing Properties
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Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 11
February 12, 2013
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Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 11
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Planned and Proposed Senior Housing Developments
Planning staff at the municipalities in the PMA were surveyed to identify planned and proposed
senior housing developments that may increase the future competitive supply. There are no
potential market rate senior housing developments with services under planning review in the
PMA. Thus no additional units are subtracted from 2017 demand calculations presented later in
this assessment.
Senior Housing Demand Calculations
Tables 7 through 9 provide initial demand calculations for the number of market rate
independent living, assisted living, and memory care units that can be supported in the PMA in
2012 and 2017, along with an estimate on the number of units that can be supported on the
Site in Cottage Grove.
Independent Senior Living
As shown in Table 7, unmet demand for independent living housing on a site in Cottage Grove is
calculated for 78 units in 2017. The following points summarize the demand methodology.
The target market for independent living housing is senior households age 75+ with incomes of
$30,000 or more plus households with incomes between $20,000 and $30,000 who would
qualify with the proceeds from a home sale. There would also be some limited demand from
seniors under age 75. These seniors are the "age /income - qualified base." A capture rate —or
"penetration rate" — is applied to the income - qualified base of younger and older seniors. The
penetration rates are based on the current penetration rates of independent senior housing in
the Twin Cities Metro Area. Applying the penetration rates to the age /income - qualified base
results in demand for 131 independent units in 2012, growing to 144 units in 2017.
Senior developments can typically expect approximately one - quarter of their residents to come
from outside their primary market area. We project that a senior development on the Site can
draw a slightly higher percentage from outside the PMA; primarily due to its close proximity to
Woodbury which is outside the PMA. We estimate that seniors currently residing outside the
PMA will generate 30% of the total demand for independent senior housing. This demand from
outside the PMA increases total demand to 188 units in 2012 and 206 units in 2017.
We subtract the number of existing competitive units (minus a 5% vacancy factor) from the
total demand resulting in excess demand for 98 units in the PMA in 2012. There are no planned
independent senior living units in the PMA identified that would increase the competitive
supply. Subtracting existing units from 2017 total demand results in excess demand potential in
the PMA for 116 units in 2017.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 12
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
No single site can capture all of the demand in a PMA. Based on the geographic size of the PMA
and the Site's location within the PMA, we estimate that the Site can capture 55% of the excess
demand potential. This results in excess demand on the Site for 55 independent living units in
2012 growing to 64 units in 2017.
Table 7
Independent Senior Housing Demand Calculation
Primary Market Area
2012 and 2017
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 13
February 12, 2013
2012
2017
A
65 to 74 Households in the PMA
1,635
2,069
B
Percent income - qualified
82%
81%
C
Potential penetration rate of independent living housing
0.5%
0.5%
D
Income - qualified 65 -74 households in the PMA (A x B x C)
7
8
E
75+ Households in the PMA
1,148
1,351
F
Percent income - qualified
68%
63%
G
Potential penetration rate of independent living housing
16%
16%
H
Income - qualified 75+ households in the PMA (E x F x G)
125
136
1
Total demand for independent housing from the PMA (D + H)
131
144
1
Estimated percent of demand from outside the PMA
30%
30%
K
Total demand for independent living units in the PMA (I / (1 -J))
188
206
L
Competitive independent living supply*
90
90
M
Excess independent living demand (K - L)
98
116
N
Estimated percent of demand capturable by subject Site
55%
55%
O
Independent living demand on the subject Site (M x N)
54
64
* Competitive units minus a 5% vacancy factor
Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 13
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Assisted Livins
As shown in Table 8, unmet assisted living demand on the Site in Cottage Grove has been
calculated for 28 units in 2017. This demand is for market rate (or "private pay ") units and does
not include additional demand from lower- income seniors who could utilize the Elderly Waiver
program to pay for services. The following points summarize our demand methodology.
The primary market for assisted living housing in the PMA is seniors ages 75 and over needing
assistance with Activities of Daily Living (ADLs). Based on data from the Health and Aging
Chartbook that was conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the
National Center for Health Statistics, the percentage of seniors unable to perform, or having
difficulty with, ADLs ranges from 25.5% of seniors ages 75 to 79, 33.6% of seniors ages 80 to 84
and 51.6% of seniors ages 85 and over. Applying these percentages to the senior population in
the PMA results in the total age - qualified population needing assistance with ADLs.
To afford market rents, these seniors will generally need incomes of at least $40,000 or have
assets available through the proceeds received from the sale of their home. Overall, we
calculate that 49% of the senior population in the PMA in 2012 was income - qualified for market
rate assisted living housing.
We estimate that 70% of the age /income - qualified seniors needing assistance will be able to
remain in their homes by receiving home health care services or will live in other less service -
intensive senior housing. This percentage also takes into account that many seniors are not
living alone and will be able to remain in their existing homes with assistance from their
spouse /partner. The remaining 30% will need /choose assisted living housing.
We estimate that seniors who currently reside outside the PMA will generate 30% of the
demand for assisted living senior housing— increasing total demand in the PMA to 119 units in
2012 and 139 units in 2017. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult children who
live in the PMA.
The next step in calculating demand is to subtract competitive supply from total PMA demand.
A total of 104 competitive units were identified in Table 6. Subtracting these competitive units
(minus 10% which are estimated to be occupied by lower- income residents utilizing the Elderly
Waiver program to pay for services and a 5% vacancy factor) from total demand results in the
excess demand for 30 assisted living units in the PMA in 2012. No pending developments were
identified that would increase the competitive supply serving the PMA by 2017. Excess demand
is calculated for 51 units in the PMA in 2017.
Again, no single site can capture all of the demand in a PMA. We estimate that the Site in
Cottage Grove can capture 55% of the excess demand potential in the PMA. This results in
excess demand on the Site for 17 market rate assisted living units in 2012 growing to 28 market
rate units in 2017.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 14
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Table 8
Market Rate Assisted Living Demand Calculation
Primary Market Area
2012 and 2017
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 15
February 12, 2013
2012
2017
A
75 to 79 Population in the PMA
811
966
B
Percent needing ADL assistance
25.5%
25.5%
C
Estimated population needing ADL assistance (A x B)
207
246
D
80 to 84 Population in the PMA
500
555
E
Percent needing ADL assistance
33.6%
33.6%
F
Estimated population needing ADL assistance (D x E)
168
187
G
85+ Population in the PMA
377
466
H
Percent needing ADL assistance
51.6%
51.6%
1
Estimated population needing ADL assistance (G x H)
195
240
J
Total 75+ population needing ADL assistance (C +F +I)
569
673
K
Percent of PMA population income - qualified
48.8%
48.4%
L
Total income - qualified population needing ADL assistance (1 x K)
278
325
M
Potential penetration rate of assisted living housing
30%
30%
N
Total demand for assisted living units (L x M)
83
98
0
Estimated percent of demand from outside the PMA
30%
30%
P
Total demand for assisted living units in the PMA IN / (1 -0))
119
139
Q
Competitive assisted living supply*
89
89
R
Excess assisted living demand (P - Q)
30
51
S
Estimated percent of demand capturable by subject Site
55%
55%
T
Assisted living demand on the subject Site (R x S)
17
28
* Competitive units minus a 5% vacancy factor
Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 15
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Memory Care
Table 9 calculates unmet memory care demand on the Site in Cottage Grove for 17 units in
2017. Like assisted living, this demand is for market rate units and does not include additional
demand from lower- income seniors who could utilize the Elderly Waiver program to pay for
services. The following points summarize our demand methodology.
Demand is calculated by multiplying the PMA age 65+ population in 2012 and 2017 by the
incidence rate of Alzheimer's /dementia (based on data from the Alzheimer's Association:
Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures — 2007). An estimated 462 seniors living in the PMA as of
2012 had a memory impairment.
Due to the high cost of memory care housing, the income needed to afford market rate
memory care is much higher than independent and assisted living housing. The income -
qualified base for memory care housing is defined as 85% of households with incomes of at
least $60,000 plus 40% of homeowners with incomes below $60,000.
The majority of seniors with dementia are able to live independently with the assistance of a
caregiver, while those in the latter stages of dementia require intensive medical care that is
only available in skilled nursing facilities. Some also choose other types of housing like adult
foster care. An estimated 30% of age /income - qualified people with memory impairment
constitute the market for memory care housing.
An estimated 30% of the demand for memory care housing would come from seniors residing
outside of the PMA. This additional demand brings the total demand within the PMA to 72 units
in 2012 growing to 89 units in 2017.
The competitive supply is then subtracted from the total demand to reveal unmet demand. A
total of 68 competitive units were identified serving the PMA. Subtracting these competitive
units (minus 5% that are estimated to be occupied by lower- income residents utilizing the
Elderly Waiver program and a 5% vacancy factor) results in the excess demand for 11 memory
care units in 2012. No pending developments were identified that would increase the
competitive supply by 2017. Subtracting the existing competitive units from the total demand
results in excess demand for 28 units in 2017.
No single site can capture all of the demand in a PIMA. We estimate that the Site in Cottage
Grove can capture 55% of the excess demand potential in the PMA. This results in excess
demand on the Site for six market rate memory care units in 2012 growing to 15 units in 2017.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 16
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Table 9
Market Rate Memory Care Housing Demand Calculation
Primary Market Area
2012 and 2017
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 17
February 12, 2013
2012
2017
A
65 to 75 Population
2,721
3,439
B
Dementia incidence rate
2.0%
2.0%
C
Estimated population with Dementia (A x B)
54
69
D
75 to 84 Population
1,311
1,521
E
Dementia incidence rate
19.0%
19.0%
F
Estimated population with Dementia (D x E)
249
289
G
85+ Population
377
466
H
Dementia incidence rate
42.0%
42.0%
1
Estimated population with Dementia (G x H)
158
196
J
Total population with Dementia (C+ F + 1)
462
553
K
Percent of population income - qualified
36%
37%
L
Total income - qualified population needing assistance (J x K)
168
207
M
Potential penetration rate of specialized memory care housing
30%
30%
N
Total demand for memory care units (L x M)
50
62
O
Estimated percent of demand from outside the PMA
30%
30%
P
Total demand for memory care units in the PMA (N / (1- 0))
72
89
Q
Competitive memory care supply
61
61
R
Excess memory care demand (P - Q)
11
28
S
Percent of demand capturable by subject Site
55%
55%
T
Memory care demand on the subject Site (R x S)
6
1s
* Competitive units minus a 5% vacancy factor
Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 17
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
Demand Summary
The age 75 and over population nearly doubled in the PMA last decade and is projected to
continue growing rapidly through 2017. As a result, demand for senior housing is also growing,
although the pace of growth is tempered by projected flat incomes. The initial demand for
market rate senior housing on the Site in Cottage Grove is summarized in Table 10. Total unmet
demand in the PMA for the three service - levels is projected to increase from 139 units in 2012
to 195 units in 2017. The estimated portion of demand that can be captured by the Site is 55 %.
In 2014, when the proposed development would potentially open, this capture rate equates to
demand on the Site for 58 independent units, 21 assisted living units, and 10 memory care
units, for a total of 89 units. If residency is allowed to some lower- income seniors utilizing the
Elderly Wavier program, then a few more assisted living and memory care units could be
supported on the Site.
Table 10
Summary of Initial Demand Calculations for Market Rate Housing
Primary Market Area
2012 and 2017
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 18
February 12, 2013
Total
Unmet
Demand
PMA
Competitive
PMA
on Subject
Demand
Supply
Demand
Site
2012
Independent Living
188
90
98
54
Assisted Living
119
89
30
17
Memory Care
72
61
11
6
Total
379
240
139
76
2014
Independent Living
195
90
105
58
Assisted Living
127
89
38
21
Memory Care
79
61
18
10
Total
401
240
161
89
2017
Independent Living
206
90
116
64
Assisted Living
139
89
51
28
Memory Care
89
61
28
15
Total
434
240
195
107
Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 18
February 12, 2013
Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN
As noted in the introduction of this report, the purpose of this initial assessment is to broadly
assess the depth of demand for senior housing in the local area to determine if potential exists
to support a new development. Thus, the findings are preliminary and should be viewed in that
light. A full market feasibility study would more closely examine factors such as the desirability
of the Site and the performance of competitive buildings, both of which may impact demand.
Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 19
February 12, 2013
John Burbank
From: Jennifer Levitt
Sent: Monday, May 13, 20131:43 PM
To: John Burbank
Subject: FW: Summerhill Crossing Senior Housing - sanitary sewer capacity analysis
Attachments: Sewer calcs 051313.pdf, Parcel Sketch Map.pdf
From: Schleeter, Brad [mailto:Brad.Schleeter @stantec.com]
Sent: Monday, May 13, 2013 1:39 PM
To: Jennifer Levitt
Cc: Sanocki, Dave
Subject: Summerhill Crossing Senior Housing - sanitary sewer capacity analysis
Jennifer, I've attached information regarding the sewer capacity analysis for Summerhill Crossing Senior Housing based
on the water meter reading information that you sent me. The first pdf is the sewer calculations and the second is a parcel
sketch map showing the parcels involved in this analysis. Based on this information, I have the following comments and
questions:
1. The average sewer flow calculations for the three existing properties only look at the domestic water usage
quantities (irrigation water usage is excluded).
2. The average sewer flow generation for the three existing properties only reflects the average daily flow generation
for the peak flow month (the highest total monthly consumption value is divided by the total number of days in the
meter reading period). This average number does not reflect any daily peaks in sewer flow, rather it is a monthly
average based on the best information available. We believe that this approach is acceptable as the peak flow
factor used to estimate the design flow rate for this area accounts for daily peaks in sewer flow.
3. Our estimate of average sewer flow from the three existing properties is 1,398 gal /ac /day, which is slightly less
but comparable to the assumed unit flow rate from the 2008 CSP for commercial /industrial land use of 1,500
gal /ac /day.
4. Our average sewer flow estimate for the Senior Housing facility uses the unit flow rate for High Density
Residential land uses from the 2008 CSP (120 gal /unit/day), that assumes 2 people per unit. We realize that this
assumption is conservative as many of the units will be single occupancy, however, we didn't want to deviate from
the 2008 CSP assumptions. Does the applicant have sewer flow information from other existing facilities that
could help in refining this unit flow rate assumption?
5. Another factor that could impact the flow from the three existing users is future expansion or ultimate build -out.
Are there any plans for future expansion of the existing users that would generate additional flow? Are the existing
users at their maximum occupancy or will there be addition occupants /tenants contributing flow in the future?
Either of these scenarios could increase flows from the existing users.
6. Our calculations indicate that the estimated average flow from the three existing properties plus the Senior
Housing facility (0.017 MGD) is close to the original average flow assumption from the 2008 CSP (0.015 MGD).
However, given the existing downstream sewer capacity issues, it would be helpful to address the questions
raised above to increase our level of comfort with the proposed Senior Housing facility.
Could you review this information and let me know if you have any follow up questions on this analysis.
Thank you,
Brad Schleeter
Project Manager
Stantec
2335 Highway 36 West
St. Paul MN 55113
Ph: (651) 604 -4801
Cell: (651) 775 -5160
brad.schleeter - stantec.com
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Water Consumption Records for Existing Summerhlll Commercial Bldg (6936 Pine Arbor Dr S) 5/13/2013
Reading Month
Da of Readin
StimReadin
End Reading
I Consumption
Av118m Caasumptlon
HOW gallons(
IWOgagar)
(gallons)
I (MGDJ
September
2011
28
469
470
9000
0.0003
October
2011
29
428
482
900
011003
November
2011
33
482
492
1000
0.033
December
2011
30
497
507
1WC0
0.033
January
2012
30
507
516
9000
0.033
February
2012
31
516
526
loom
0.0003
March
2012
31
526
535
9000
0.033
April
2002
29
535
545
10000
0.003
May
2012
32
545
554
9000
0.033
June
2012
29
554
564
mow
0pm3
July
2012
30
564
94
l0
0.003
August
2012
31
574
584
133
0.0003
September
2012
1 30
1 SAM
1 594
1300
OAm3
October
2012
33
594
605
1 flow
O.o003
November
2012
30
605
616
110 2
0.0004
Oecemher
2012
29
616
626
10000
come
January
2013
34
626
1 632
FIND
OAw3
February
2013
29
632 1
640
13000
OA34
March
2013
28
648 1
658
10"
0.004
Water Consumption Records for Existing Health East Bldg (6939 Pine Arbor Dr S)
reading Month
nasof Reatling
Start Reading
I and Reading
Consumption
Average Consumption
t10oDga11 ons(
HOME.11onsl
(gallons)
IMGOI
September
2011
28
387
395
8000
0.O03
October
2011
29
395
403
0000
0.033
November
2011
33
403
412
903
O.0w3
December
2011
30
412
420
Bm0
0.003
January
2012
30
420
429
9000
0.0303
February
2012
31
429
438
9000
0.m03
March
2012
31
438
448
10
0.0003
April
2012
29
448
458
loom
0.0003
May
2012
32
458
468
loom
0.0003
June
2012
29
468
4]]
9000
0.0003
July
2012
30
4]]
486
9000
D.0003
August
2012
31
486
53
1420
O.Ows
September
2012
1 30 1
500
1 Slo
lam
O.Om3
October
2012
33
510
534
24000
0.000]
November
2012
30
04
545
1102
0.004
December
2012
29
545
556
11000
0.034
January
2013
34
555
566
U.S.
agent
February
2013
28
565
584
]How
O.00N
Mara,
2013
28
584
604
20000
0.0007
Water Consumption Records for Existing Holiday Station (6921 Pine Arbor Dr S)
Reading ManIM1
I D,rs of Itudingl
SFart Reading
1 End Reading
Consarmlim
Average Consumption
(100ga11an5)
I (Derogations)
i t
(MGD)
September
2011
28
2090
2239
14120
0.0050
October
2011
29
2239
2350
111000
0.038
November
2011
33
2350
2504
154000
0.347
December
2011
30
2504
2204
league
0.0067
January
2012
30
2204
2922
223000
0.0024
February
2012
31
2927
3176
249WO
0.0080
March
2012
31
3176
3375
199MD
0.0064
April
2012
29
3375
3490
11520
0.0040
May
2012
32
3490
3641
151000
0.0042
June
2012
29
3641
3842
20100
0.039
July
2012
30
3042
NOT
16100
0.0054
August
2012
31
4003
4174
171W0
0.0055
September
1 2012
1 30
1 4124
1 4340
1 166000
1 0.055
October
2012
33
4340
4481
141W0
0.023
November
2012
30
4481.
4603
122000
0.241
December
1 2012
29
4603
4761
1 SSB000
0.054
January
2013
34
4261
5039
228000
0.082
February
M13
28
339
5234
195m0
0.0020
March
2013
28
5234
5430
196000
0.0020
Area summary -see attached for more
"nformaf on
of P Mao
Area of Existing mpereies=
S.D
Total Area of Ensting Properties and Proportion of ROW in Odglonal 10.3 Arm Are a
(5.2]aC +1,38 ae)=
Area of Proposed Summerhlll crossing Sr NODS ng=
2.89
Existing Unit Flow Pate=
Total Developable Area in Summerhlll Crossing=
8;16
acres
5ummerM1lll Cmssln, ROW,
2.14
Proportion of ROW Area within original 10 %acre area for existing developed properties
((5.22 ac/8.16 at)': ac)=
138
Inces
Exisdne Prmertles Sewer Analysis
Total Existing Average Flow (from above)=
0.02
MGD
Total Area of Ensting Properties and Proportion of ROW in Odglonal 10.3 Arm Are a
(5.2]aC +1,38 ae)=
6.65
e5
Existing Unit Flow Pate=
1398
gapac / day
Summmthill Cosine 51 Hdusine
proposed Dpits=
66
CSP Dan Flow Rate=
120
gal /unit /day
Estimated Average How =1
O.WB
IMGD
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EXHIBIT D
01CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
Transportation • Civil • Structural • Environmental - Planning • Traffic - Landscape Architecture • Parking
SRF No. 0014337
SRF No. 0014339
TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM
TO: Kim Lindquist, AICP, Community Development Director
CITY of COTTAGE GROVE
FROM: Dennis R. Eyler, P.E., P.T.O.E., Vice President — Traffic Engineering
Jeff Bednar, Senior Traffic Engineering Specialist
DATE: October 24, 2001 O
SUBJECT: TRAFFIC TWACT S'T'UDY FOR ITIE PROPOSED
COTTAGE GROVE NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER (RYGH PUD) AND
MIXED DENSITY RESIDENTIAL SUBDIVISION (THowsON LAND DEVELOPMENT)
NORTH OF 70 .. STREET AND WEST OF HINTON AVENUE
Introduction
As you requested, we have completed the traffic impact study and analysis for the subject
development area (see Figure 1). This traffic impact study will consider the 8.5- acre,, multi -use
(conven<enre /gas, retail commercial and senior houshng) Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center
(Rygh PUD) development and the 72 -acre, 300+ unit multi - family residential. development
(Thompson Land Development) proposed for the study area in Cottage Grove, Minnesota.
The major traffic related issues addressed in this traffic impact study include:
• Full Access versus Right -in /right -out only or 3/ site access for (Street "D ") to 70th Street
including access /intersection sight distance.
• Conversion of a temporary full access to a right- Wright-out only access (Street "A ") versus
complete closure of this (Street "A ") access.
• Access location; number and design, specifically for the western portion of the site
• Trip generation estimates and traffic assignments to include adjustments for on -site multi -use
trips, pass -by trips and other captured trips.
• Development- generated traffic operations impacts (capacity /levels of service, intersection
geometry, lane use and traffic control strategies) at the study area key intersections.
• Traffic impacts to the adjoining neighborhood east of Hinton Avenue.
• Internal site circulation plus issues related to existing gravel - mining site.
Based on this traffic impact study and analysis, the following findings, conclusions and
recommendations are offered for your consideration.
One Carlson Parkway North, Suite 150, Minneapolis, MN 55447 -4443
Telephone (763) 475 -0010 w Fax (763) 475 -2429 it http: / /www.srfconsulting.com
An Equal Opportunity Employer
Kim Lindquist
Existing Conditions
-2- October 24, 2001
Current traffic volumes within the study area can be characterized as moderate. All study area
key intersections appear to be operating at acceptable levels of service (based on observations
during a study area site visit).
Proposed Development
The land use assumed for the two proposed subject developments can be characterized as a mix
of retail, office, service commercial, senior housing and low to medium density residential uses
(see Figures 2 and 3). Based on the appropriate average trip generation rates from the 1997
Institute of Transportation Engineers "Trip Generation" report, it is estimated that this proposed
land use would generate a total of 5,436 daily trips, 415 morning and 541 afternoon peak hour
trips (see Table 1).
The convenience /gas land use proposed in the Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh
Development) may generate up to 60 percent pass -by trips. Pass -by trips are trips that are
captured by a land use from the passing through traffic on adjacent roadways. Due to this level
of pass -by trips only 40 percent of the proposed convenience /gas land use generated total trips
(or only 734 of 1834 total daily trips) are new trio's on the adjacent roadway system.
Table 1
Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) and
Mixed Density Residential Subdivision (Thompson Land Development)
Trip Generation Estimates
LAND USE TYPE
DAILY
UNITS Total
TxtPS
A.M. PEAK
HOUR_
P.M. PEAK
HOUR
. Trips
In
Trips
Out
Trips
In
Trips
Out
Proposed Rygh PUD
Senior Housing Units
80 units 278
4
2
5
5
Day Care Center
10,000 S.F. 793
68
60
62
70
RetaiUO"ce Commercial
18,000 S.F. 773
12
7
33
35
Convenience /Gas with Car Wash
12 pumps 1,834
65
63
84
84
Subtotals 3,678
149
132
184
194
Thompson Land Development
Residential Twin Home Units
72 units 422
6
27
261
13
Residential Town Home Units
44 units 258
41
16
16
8
Residential Lodges Units
184 units 1,078
14
67
67
33
Subtotals 1,758
24
110
109
54
Totals 5,436
173
242
293
248
Kim Lindquist -3 - October 24, 2001
Proposed Site Access
The proposed development preliminary site plans indicate two access locations on 70 Street
(CSAH 22) plus access to Hinton Avenue at 69 Street (an existing intersection serving the
neighborhood to the east). Future site access to the west would be provided to a future extension
of Harkness/Hardwood Avenue north of 70` Street.
Classified as "A" Minor Arterials, both 70 Street (CSAH 22) and Hinton Avenue (Future
CSAH 13) can provide access only at a minimum of 1 /4 mile spacing (per Washington County's
Access Spacing Policy). However, while the intersection of Hinton Avenue and 69 Street is
less than 1 /a mile from 70 Street, this site access location would be acceptable since it is at an
existing intersection.
The proposed concept plan for this Hinton Avenue and 69 Street site access shows a west
intersection leg with a wide center median presumably for development monumentation and
landscaping purposes. Washington County has indicated that they will require that the lanes on
this new intersection leg align with the existing lanes on 69 Street east of Hinton Avenue. This
lane alignment will preclude the wide center median proposed on the new intersection leg.
The proposed east site access (Street "D ") on 70 Street is also less than t /a mile west of Hinton
Avenue (approximately 660 feet). However, since roadway profile and site grading issues limit
alternative locations, Washington Cpunty may allow this proposed site access with restrictions.
Because of restricted sight distance to the west, the County would not allow a "full" access at
this location. Only a Right- In/Right -Out (RI/RO) access or possibly a 3 /a intersection (allows the
left -turn into the site but not the left -turn out of the site) would be allowed at this location.
In order to construct an effective RI/RO intersection at this Street "D" site access location, a pork
chop shaped raised island and appropriate signing restricting the left -turns will be required. A
westbound right -turn lane to this access will also be required. To construct a 3 /a intersection at
this location would require significant widening plus a raised median island on 70' Street from
Hinton Avenue to a point approximately 900 feet west of the proposed site access. Without
County funding participation the costs to construct this 3 /a intersection may outweigh the benefits.
The proposed west site access (Street "A ") on 70 Street may be allowed as a temporary "full"
access until Harkness/Hardwood Avenue is extended north of 70' Street. When Harkness
Avenue is extended north of 70' Street site access could be provided to Harkness /Hardwood
Avenue. After Harkness Avenue is extended the temporary Street "A" site access would be
closed due to the proximity of this access to Harkness Avenue (approximately 500 feet).
In terms of general site access planning, providing only a single site access to a future extension
of Harkness Avenue, which would serve more than 225 dwelling units, raises concerns related to
emergency response, internal site circulation and circuitous travel issues. Since the distance on
70 Street between Harkness and Hinton Avenues is about 1 /z mile, it is unlikely that the County
would permit more than one access to 70 Street in this segment. Westward relocation of the
east (Street "D ") site access and/or an internal connection of the west half of the proposed
development to the east site access may be needed to mitigate these issues and concerns.
Kim Lindquist -4- October 24, 2001
Traffic Forecasts
The site - generated traffic plus assumed future background traffic was assigned to the study area
roadway system using a computer traffic assignment model. This is a travel time and delay
based computer model that assigns traffic between study area origins and destinations based on
the shortest travel time routes. Traffic forecasts were developed for two site access alternatives:
• An analysis scenario with two "full" site access locations on 70"' Street (CSAH 22).
• A scenario with only one Right- In/Right -Out site access on 70 Street at 660 feet west of
Hinton Avenue.
The future background traffic was developed based on long -range (Year 2020) daily traffic
forecasts provided by Washington County for 70` Street (CSAH 22) west of Hinton Avenue
(11,000 ADT) and Hinton Avenue (future CSAH 13) north of 70 Street (15,500 ADT). The
future traffic growth rate on Minton Avenue is significantly higher than might be considered
typical due to the future realignment of Hinton Avenue /Tower Drive to make a more direct
connection to Radio Drive and a more continuous north/south minor arterial connection to 1 -94.
The directional trip distribution for the site - generated traffic was developed based on the regional
distribution of households and employment, and the existing and forecast travel patterns within
the study area (see Figure 4). This information in concert with a gravity model included in the
computer traffic assignment model was used to develop the peak hour traffic forecasts for each
site access scenario (see Appendix A and Figure 5 for Average Daily Traffic Forecasts).
Traffic Operations Analysis
A computer traffic. operations model was used to analyze the two site access scenarios. Adding
the proposed subject development - generated traffic to the 2022 background traffic resulted in
acceptable levels of service (LOS, see Appendix B) at all key intersections serving the study area
and for both site access scenarios (see Table 2). Note that in these analyses Hinton Avenue
(future CSAH 13) was assumed to be upgraded to a four lane divided roadway, plus turn lanes
and traffic signal control would be added to all of the major study area key intersections.
Future traffic signal control was assumed at the major study area key intersections including
Hinton Avenue (future CSAH 13) and 69 Street based on the level of background traffic alone.
While the proposed subject development will contribute to the need for future traffic signal
control and geometric improvement of these intersections, it can be assumed that these future
improvements will be required with or without the subject development- generated traffic.
Under the "full" access scenario the southbound to eastbound left -turn at 70 Street and the
Street "D" access will have very little capacity available to it due to the heavier traffic volume on
70 Street (very few gaps available in the heavier traffic flow on 70`' Street). This lack of
capacity will cause significant delay for this left -turn movement. And as can be seen in the
traffic assignment (see Appendix A) the computer model has assigned very few of these left -
turns to this intersection due to this capacity and delay problem. It is easier for these eastbound
movements to make the right -turn out of the site at the intersection of 69 Street and Hinton
Avenue and then the southbound to eastbound left -turn at 70 Street and Hinton Avenue.
Kim Lindquist
-5- October 24, 2001
Table 2
Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) and
Mixed Density Residential Subdivision (Thompson Land Development)
Traffic Operations (LOS) Analysis Summary / Year 2022 Traffic Forecasts
ACCESS SCENARIO/KEY INTERSECTION
A.M. PEAK HOUR
P.M. PEAK HOUR
LOS
Delay
LOS
Delay
Two Full Access Locations on 70 "` Street
70 Street and Harkness Avenue (signalized)
B
14.4
A -_
9.2
70 ` Street and Street A/ west access (unsignalized)
C
24.8
D
25.1
70" Street and Street D / east access (unsignalized)
C
16.3
B
11.8
70 Street and Hinton Avenue (signalized)
C
23.3
C
22.1
Hinton Avenue and 69 Street (signalized)
A
5.2
A
4.8
Network -wide Performance Index/LOS
41.2/13
12.0
37.2/13
10.0
One Right- In/Right -Out Access on 70 Street
70 Street and Harkness Avenue (signalized)
B
13.9
A
9.6
70 Street and Street D / RI/RO access (unsignalized)
B
14.9
B
11.3
70 Street and Hinton Avenue (signalized)
C
23.4
C
32.8
Hinton Avenue and 69 Street (signalized)
A
5.2
A
4.8
Network -wide Performance Index/LOS
41.0/"
15.0
49.68
17.0
LOS = Level Of Service and Delay = Average intersection delay per vehicle in seconds.
LOS and delay for unsignalized intersections is provided for the worst approach to that intersection.
Identification and Evaluation of Site Access Alternatives
The following long -range site access alternatives are identified and briefly evaluated. Further
evaluation and consideration by the city, county and development team is recommended.
Alternative A — One Right -In /Right -Out Access (Street "D" at the location proposed by
the development team) on 70 Street with full access to Hinton Avenue at 69 Street
and Harkness /Hardwood Avenue (as recommended by Washington County).
This alternative does address the restricted site distance at the proposed Street "D" location by
eliminating,the problem southbound to eastbound left -turn movement. And with the assumed
future intersection traffic control and geometric improvements, the 70t Sheet intersections with
Harkness and Hinton Avenues can accommodate the resultant additional site - generated traffic at
these intersections. However, this alternative would result in about 225 dwelling units being
essentially developed on a long cul -de -sac with only the single access to Harkness Avenue. This
number of homes served by only one access does raise concerns for emergency response, the
level of traffic on Street "A" near Harknees Avenue and circuity of travel.
Kim Lindquist -6- October 24, 2001
There may be a long -range potential to provide a Y44 intersection (provides for the eastbound to
northbound left -turn from 70 Street to the site) at this access location. This sub - alternative
would require the County to reconstruct 70` Street (CSAH 22) to a divided section that would
include the raised median island channelization that would be. necessary for this access provision.
Alternative B — Same as Alternative A, but with an internal street connection between
the east and west portions of the site that would provide access to the RI /R0 (Street
"D ") access on 70 Street for the townhome portion of the site.
This alternative would provide additional access to the western portion of the site and mitigate
the concerns related to emergency response, the level of traffic on Street "A" near Harkness
Avenue and circuity of travel. This alternative would however, require significant site grading in
order to traverse the steep slope associated with the eastern limit of gravel mining activity on the
site. The additional site - generated traffic using the Street "D" RI/R0 access on 70 Street under
this alternative would not represent a significant traffic operations concern.
Alternative C — Westward relocation of the Street 'D" Access on 70 Street to a
location that would resolve the sight distance restriction and allow "full' access
(approximately 880 feet west of Hinton Avenue — this distance will need to be verified).
This alternative would provide a "full' site access on 70 Street. However, it may require
substantial additional site grading and may impact the availability of 70` Street access to the
Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) site. It should be expected that there would be
limited capacity and significant delays for the southbound to eastbound left -turn at this relocated
"full" site access. This site access alternative could also include the internal street connection in
described in Alternative B above. Based on the low volume of left -turns forecast into and out of
the site for this alternative it would appear to be difficult to justify the costs to implement.
Alternative D — Eastward relocation of the Temporary Site Access east of Harkness
Avenue (current proposed location is approximately 500 feet east of Harkness Avenue)
to a location that may be acceptable to the County for a long -range RI /RO access
(approximately 880 feet east of Harkness Avenue).
This alternative would also provide additional access to the western portion of the site and
mitigate the concerns related to emergency response, the level of traffic on Street "A" near
Harkness Avenue and circuity of travel. This alternative would require substantial additional site
grading in order to traverse the steep slope associated with the gravel mining activity on the site.
However in this case the costs associated with this alternative could be justified by the benefits.
Kim Lindquist
-7- October 24, 2001
Traffic Impacts to the Adjoining Existing Neighborhood East of Hinton Avenue
While the proposed subject developments will contribute to the need for future traffic signal
control and geometric improvement at the intersection of Hinton Avenue and 69 Street, it can
be assumed that these future improvements will be required with or without the subject
development- generated traffic. This is due to the higher future background traffic volume on
Hinton Avenue and the increased difficulty the existing neighborhood residents may have
making the westbound to southbound left -turn out of the neighborhood from 69 "' Street. With
future traffic control and geometric. improvements this intersection will operate at very
acceptable levels of service.
Concern has been raised by the neighborhood related to having the Street "D" access to 70
Street restricted to a RURO access resulting in higher use of the intersection of 69 Street and
Hinton Avenue (particularly as it relates to the convenience /gas land use). As discussed earlier,
(and as shown in Table 2 and Appendix A) there is not a significant difference between the "full
and RURO Street "D" access alternatives in terms of traffic volume and/or operational
performance at any of the study area key intersections and in particular the intersection of 69
Street and Hinton Avenue. This insignificant difference is due to the lower traffic volumes
forecast at the Street "D" access location and the difficulty in making the left -turns into and
specifically out of the site under the "full" access scenario.
Based on the existing neighborhood,'s internal street system configuration, travel time estimates
and the development- generated traffic origin/destination desires, it is unlikely that there would
be a significant level of "through" traffic generated by the proposed developments that would use
the neighborhood streets as "through" routes.
Internal Site Circulation and Access
A review of the concept site plans available for both development proposals indicates that the
internal site circulation and access is generally well configured. However, an internal street
connection between the east and west portions of the site would not only provide access to the
Rl/RO (Street "D ") access on 70" Street for the townhome portion of the site and mitigate the
concerns_ related to emergency response, the level of traffic on Street "A" near Harkness Avenue.
and circuity of travel, but it would allow vehicular interaction within the site without having to
use the adjacent arterial street system to travel within the neighborhood.
In the site plan for the Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PIID) there are three
driveways proposed in close proximity to each other in the center of a horizontal curve on the
internal street serving the site. These conditions together may increase and complicate the
driver's decision tasks and result in an increased potential for vehicular collision in this area of
the site. Consideration should be given to reducing the number of driveways in this area.
Kim Lindquist - 8 - October 24, 2001
Summary of Recommendations
1. Site Access Alternative A (One Right- In/Right -Out Access at Street "D" at the location
proposed by the development team on 70 Street with full access to Hinton Avenue at 69`
Street and Harkness /Hardwood Avenue) appears to offer the most effective and acceptable
Street "D" site access configuration. The future reconfiguration of the Street " D" access to
provide a 3 /4 access /intersection should be reserved and evaluated as part of any consideration
of future reconstruction of 70' Street (CSAH 22) to a divided roadway section.
2. It is strongly recommended that more than one long -range access be provided to the western
portion of the proposed site (residential townhomes area). Both Alternative B (an internal
street connection between the east and west portions of the site that would provide access to
the Street "D" RI/RO access on 70' Street) and Alternative D - Eastward relocation of the
Temporary Site Access east of Harkness Avenue to a location that may be acceptable to the
County for a long -range RURO access (approximately 880 feet east of Harkness Avenue)
could provide this additional access.
3. Alternative D would provide a more effective secondary access alternative in terms of
emergency response and circuitous travel issues relating to the western ( residential
townhomes) portion of the site. Further discussion of this access alternative with
Washington County is recommended since they will need to review, approve and permit this
access alternative.
4. The number of driveways in close proximity to each other in the center of the horizontal
curve on the internal street serving the Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) site
should be reduced from three to two in order to avoid an increased potential for vehicular
conflict and the associated risk of collision in this area of the site.
Should you have any questions or comments concerning these preliminary findings, please
contact us.
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APPENDIX. "B" - LEVEL OF SERVICE (LOS) DESCRIPTIONS
LEVEL OF SIGNALIZED INTERSECTION UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTION _
SERVICE AVERAGE CONTROL DELAY PER AVERAGE CONTROL DELAY PER DESCRIPTION OF TRAFFIC
DESIGNATION VEHICLE (SECONDS) VEHICLE (SECONDS) CONDITIONS
A
Less than 10
Less than 10
Stable Flow - Low delays; at
traffic signals most vehicles do
not stop; acceptable LOS
B
10 -20
10 -15
Stable Flow - Low delays; at
traffic signals some vehicles
must stop; acceptable LOS
C
20 -35
15 -25
Stable Flow - Moderate delays;
at traffic signals some cycle
failures; many vehicles must
stop; acceptable LOS
D
35 -55
25 -35
Approaching Unstable Flow—
Moderate delays; at traffic
signals cycle failures become
noticeable; many more vehicles
must stop; limit of acceptable
LOS
E
55 -80
35 -50
Unstable Flow - Significant
delays; at traffic signals cycle
failures are frequent; most
vehicles required to stop;
unacceptable LOS
F Over 80 Over 50 Forced Flow /Failure -
Significant delays; at traffic
signals many cycle failures
occur; most or all vehicles must
stop; unacceptable LOS