Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout2013-05-20 PACKET 06.3.STAFF REPORT CASE: C13 -014 ITEM: 6.3 PLANNING COMMISSION MEETING DATE: 5/20/13 APPLICATION APPLICANT: Rygh LLC REQUEST: Concept plan for a proposed senior housing building that will consist of a total of 66 units (54 congregate living and 12 memory care). SITE DATA LOCATION: Pine Arbor Drive at the northwest intersection of 70th Street and Hinton Avenue ZONING: PUD, Planned Unit Development CONTIGUOUS LAND USE: NORTH: Commercial EAST: Residential SOUTH: Religious WEST: Commercial SIZE: 4.38 acres DENSITY: N/A RECOMMENDATION Review. COTTAGE GROVE PLANNING DIVISION Planning Staff Contact: John M. Burbank, Senior Planner, 651- 458 -2825 or 0 burbank(c)_cottage- g rove. org Planning Staff Report Summerhill Concept Plan Review Case No. C13 -014 May 20, 2013 Proposal Rygh LLC has submitted a concept sketch for an amendment to the existing Planned Unit Develop- ment (PUD) for the Summerhill development to include senior housing in place of 21,700 square feet of retail and 5,000 square feet of restaurant. The senior housing would consist of 54 units of congregate care and 12 units of memory care. The property is simply described as lying north of 70th Street (CSAH 22), west of Hinton Avenue, and south of Pine Arbor Lane. The Property is cur- rently owned by Rygh LLC and ECUMEN would be the operational partner on the proposed project. After receiving feedback on this Concept Plan, the developer will apply for a zoning amendment and site plan review. Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 2 of 11 I lll 1 I I T r r-n 1 1 II • I i _r --1 1 16 it ii IN I I I Ir 11 --I I I I I II III it 0 n if it -73 i it 1 -4 R 41 III (it `\ �.:. i " - ✓rii \ \ J f �t7(C� ±` _ �J /ll! 1 41 I •`».u; j ^ FI it III lrli nliiii \r�� \• :v /� y /�; i I•_ �rlll i (1 `�,: "U i i i i� Il ` \ \ ' / 6 ' /r �` s_ I If II pp V A (�"A� ilLLl �1 ( ) I t 1 1 \�3� ?� yy _ w III n LJ I L IT J j . e a', k Z tll II / CI II _ IIII uigh I � —_ 0 11 p II II it z r,. • - I I i� ._ . - _ .'..: —..- -- .•.— _ _ _ _ � _ _ _ _ '' I 1 l `ZIT- •--__'______ — _ -__ FIRST.ELOOR /SITE PLAN 70TH STREET SOUTH (C.S.A.H. 22) �— Concept Sketch Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 3 of 11 txisting site wan Concept Plan Background In 2002, the site was originally approved for a senior housing building in the northwest corner of the site. This PUD site plan was later amended in 2004 for the construction of the current medical building. The 2004 site plan, which identifies the previous senior housing location, is shown be- low. This detail was from Planning staff Report ZA04 -042, which was related to the relocation of the Holiday Station to its current site. Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 4 of 11 � � okf•«r 10.00!+ SF T-I Ti ITl 1 L 11 1111' .r uan rranu S' .N T!" S 0nO r 70711 NrUK&Y .. SOUTH t i The Applicant's concept was shared with the City's Technical Review Committee. Some of the comments that were voiced when that group met were: • Which use will better serve the neighborhood in the long run: the existing retail and res- taurant spaces or senior housing? • Is the site big enough for the proposed use? • Would the scale of the building be too imposing on adjacent residential uses? • What would public safety impacts be? t' (VW, Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 5 of 11 • What are the tax ramifications? • Can the proposed use incorporate retail and restaurant into the design? • Does the concept allow room for a landscaped water feature on the corner? Neighborhood Meeting On May 8, 2013, a neighborhood meeting was hosted by the applicant. There were approximately 30 neighbors in attendance with the majority from the Pine Arbor Town Home Association. The balance was from the Highlands neighborhood across Hinton Avenue. City staff attended the meeting and noted comments on the following themes: • Traffic implications • Traffic control measures at intersection of 70th and Hinton under current conditions • Traffic control measures at intersection of 70th and Hinton under future conditions • Disapproval of the county's current restricted access requirements at 70th Street and Pine Arbor Drive • Disapproval of the current speed limit on Hinton Avenue between 65th Street and 70th Street • Market area of proposed use • Price point of proposed rents The atmosphere of the meeting seemed to be generally supportive of the proposal, if some of the stated concerns could be visited and /or addressed. Planning Considerations The following sections summarize the components of the concept plan as it relates to existing zoning ordinance performance standards, the City's Comprehensive Plan, and other adopted plans. Property Characteristics The 4.38 -acre site is currently vacant. An aerial photo of the property is shown below: Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 6 of 11 Land Use The land use classification for the site and the surrounding three parcels is commercial. The sur- rounding area is guided for Low Density Residential and consists of the Pine Arbor Neighbor- hood. The proposed use is consistent with the designated land use. Land Use Detail Zoning — Land Use Compliance The property is zoned Planned Unit Development with an underlying zoning of Neighborhood Business for the commercially designated sites. Housing for senior adults is a permitted use in all commercial zoning districts. The purpose of the Planned Unit Development (PUD) District is to provide a district that will en- courage flexibility in land development and redevelopment in order to utilize new techniques of building design, construction, and land development consistent with the Comprehensive Plan. Provision of lifecycle housing to all income and age groups is an additional qualifier listed in the purpose statement for this district. The existing zoning classifications are consistent with the land use classification. This zoning classification has an approved site plan that is linked to the zoning and would be required to be amended if the project were to move forward. The conditions within the approving ordinance would also need to be modified to reflect the proposed use. Zoning — Lot Width The existing lot configuration would not be modified as a component of the requested amend- ment. Zoning — Lot Setbacks With Planned Unit Developments, the setback distances can be modified to suit the desired development. As proposed, the concept plan actually increases the setback distances to the building in comparison to the current approved site plan. Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 7 of 11 Zoning — Density The developer's concept includes 66 residential units, which is 18 units less than originally approved in 2001. Transportation — Major Road Right -of -Ways /Access The proposed project is bound by two major roadways that are identified as Minor Arterials in the City's 2030 Comprehensive Plan. These roads are 70th Street and Hinton Avenue. No additional access is proposed with the concept plan. Transportation — Local Roads The proposed project is accessed off Pine Arbor Drive. The existing intersection of this roadway with 70th Street is controlled as a right -in /right -out under requirements from Washington County. Sidewalks The concept plan includes a private sidewalk that connects the building to Pine Arbor Drive on the north and south sides of the the parking lot. A minimum width of six feet would be recommended for this walk. y . r Sldewalk Detail Trails There are no bituminous trails included in the Concept Plan. Landscaping and Buffer Area There are no landscaping details included with the Concept Plan. If the project were to proceed, a landscaping and irrigation plan would be required. Wetlands There are no wetlands on the subject property. Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 8 of 11 Public Open Space The development of this property as commercial or senior housing would trigger the same cash dedication fee requirement, which is four percent of the market rate of the property pre- devel- opment. Utilities The site has public sanitary sewer service available that would accommodate the existing ap- proved use and the conceptual use. There is public water service available that would accommodate the existing approved use and the conceptual use. Based on the proposed height of the building, there was some concern that there would not be adequate water pressure to serve the top floor efficiently. A preliminary analy- sis of flow pressures on the site and adjacent area was completed by the City. This information was shared with the developer and may require internal pumping of water to the higher floors to mitigate the concerns with water pressure. When the project was first initiated for this PUD, the stormwater ponding was designed to ade- quately address the surface water management needs of the entire project area. Since the origi- nal Summerhill development was constructed, the City has added a volume control requirement that will not be met by the existing stormwater system. Volume control practices sized to capture one inch of runoff from the new impervious surface would need to be incorporated into the site to meet the City's requirement. Grading The preliminary grading for the site has been completed with the initial site development and would require additional cutting and filling of soils in conjunction with construction of the building. No grading details were given with the concept plan submittal materials. Tree Preservation There are no trees on the site to be preserved. Architecture The Applicant is working with Pope Architects who designed the Norris Square Senior Building. The design of the building would be required to be compatible and complementary with the cur- rent buildings constructed in the PUD. Based on the project being at the concept stage, the arc- hitectural work to date has been to focus on building massing and sizing versus exterior design and construction details. A three - dimensional video rendering of the proposed building was com- pleted and will be shown at the Planning Commission meeting. Excerpts from this work are included below. This drawing from the north identifies the stepping down of the building height in order to be more congruous in scale to the adjacent residential structures. This is the memory care wing. Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 9 of 11 FOOPE A R C H I T E C T S View from South Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 10 of 11 Parking The concept plan details 44 surface parking spaces, four of which are handicap accessible. The applicant reports that the site would also include 55 underground spaces. The ordinance criteria require at least 1.5 parking spaces for each unit and notes that the City may require proof of parking of two spaces per unit if conversion to general housing appears possible. This calculates to 99 required parking spaces, which is met by the current concept plan. One suggestion that was raised by a neighbor was that if the project goes through, it would be wise to require a cross parking easement with the medical building for holidays and other special events that have higher trip generation due to visitation. The applicant has a financial interest in the medical building, so securing the easement would not be a major problem. Staff would concur with this resident - generated suggestion. Traffic As with any new development, traffic is a concern that needs to be addressed. The comments from the neighborhood meeting speak to the concerns regarding traffic volume and level of ser- vice of Hinton Avenue and 70th Street. A traffic study that was completed for this development in 2001 is included for review, and an updated study would be required if the amendment were to proceed further past the concept stage. Market Implications The Applicant contracted the completion of a market study related to the proposed use. This study was completed by Viewpoint Consulting group and is attached to this report for reference. Public Safety Implications In order to better understand the potential impacts that the proposed use would have on the Public Safety Department, a review was completed on what the actual level of service require- ments are for the three existing multi -level senior housing facilities within the community. The response from the Director of Public Safety is below: SENIOR HOUSING MEDICAL RESPONSE DATA 2012 2012 Total Public Safety Area Medical Calls 2 11 2012 Total Senior Housin Medical Calls 23] (10097% of total medical calls ALS BLS BLS NO TRANSPORT DO NOT BILL CANCELLED TOTAL WHITE PINES 20 5306% 14 28.57% 0 4 8.16% 5 1020% 49 Amount billeE $48,880.00 521,420.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $]0,30000 WHITE PINES MEMORY CARE 47 5949% 39 37.97% 0 2 2.53% 0 79 Amountbilled $88360.00 54590000 $000 5000 $0.00 $134260.00 NORRIS SQUARE 69 63.30% 26 23.85% 2 1.83% 12 11.00% 0 109' Amountbilled 8129,720.00 $37,78000 $40000 $0.00 50.00 3187,000.00 '15 of 109 calls were m me memory care unit 13.76% 2012 Total Public Safety Area Medical Calls 2 11 2012 Total Senior Housin Medical Calls 23] (10097% of total medical calls Planning Staff Report Summerhill Senior Housing Concept Plan May 20, 2013 Page 11 of 11 Recommendation The Planning Commission is asked to provide direction to the developer with respect to the pro- posed amendment. Any modifications or clarifications will be included in the recommendation that will be presented at the June 5, 2013, City Council meeting. Subsequent applications would include conditions of approval. Prepared by: John M. Burbank, AICP Senior Planner '�!�'40oint G ' CONSULTING ROUPim. Initial Demand Assessment for Senior Housing in Cottage Grove, Minnesota Site Location: 70 Street South & Hinton Avenue South Prepared for: Custom One Homes Prepared by: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Date: February 12, 2013 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. / 9104 Barrington Terrace / Brooklyn Park, MN55443 P.763- 273 -4303 / www.viewpointconsult.com ' CONSULTING GROUPINC. February 12, 2013 To: Mike Rygh Custom One Homes From: Jay Thompson Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. RE: Initial Demand Assessment for Independent, Assisted Living, and Memory Care Housing in Cottage Grove, Minnesota Introduction This memorandum provides an initial assessment of the demand for market rate senior housing in Cottage Grove, Minnesota The purpose of this initial assessment is to broadly assess the depth of demand for senior housing in the local area to determine if potential exists to support a new development. Included in this initial assessment are demand calculations for independent, assisted living, and memory care housing. Potential demand is calculated based on analysis of the income /asset- qualified target market for senior housing and the supply of competitive senior housing units serving the primary market area. The ability of the subject development to capture excess market area demand is discussed in this assessment. A full market feasibility study, which examines in greater detail the desirability of the Site and competitive properties and would also provide detailed recommendations on a project concept and absorption projections, could be conducted at a later date. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. / 9104 Barrington Terrace / Brooklyn Park, MN 55443 P.763- 273 -4303 / www.viewpointconsult.com Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Primary Market Area Definition The subject site ( "Site ") for the proposed senior housing development is in Cottage Grove, Minnesota. Cottage Grove is a suburban community of 34,589 people (2010 Census) situated along the Mississippi River in Washington County. More specifically, the Site is at the intersection of 70 Street South and Hinton Avenue. It is approximately one mile south of Cottage Grove's border with Woodbury. Based on community orientation, traffic patterns, geographic barriers, proximity to other senior housing properties, and our knowledge of senior housing draw areas, we estimate that a new senior housing development in Cottage Grove would attract approximately 70% of its residents from a draw area (Primary Market Area, or "PMA ") that includes Cottage Grove, St. Paul Park, Newport, Grey Cloud Island, and Denmark Township. The remaining portion of demand (30 %) would come from outside the PMA, including parents of adult children living in the PMA and seniors needing affordable senior housing who are currently living just outside the PMA. A fair amount of the demand from seniors living just outside the PMA would come from Woodbury because of its close proximity. We do not include Woodbury in the PMA, however, because most seniors in Woodbury are oriented to senior housing options that exist in Woodbury. A map of the PMA is shown on the following page. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 1 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN 'rimary IVIarKet Area I Lakeland - Landfall _• 0 St Paul _ - 3 Lake St 10 I est St Woodbury 1�;, Paul South' 0 St Paul o ,. 0 (156) �� h Lake %' New S[ � I jlnver o F GGrove leights o ax I I `n r� IN `'•, Spring Lake I _ 52 S �i G / l u Prescott gs ` ^ • i p � o fit oq 4t Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page February 12, 2013 Lakeland .Lakeland _• - -:" Shores o Lake St Crol% Woodbury 1�;, — Peach o 1._. o ,. f (` St Marys Point o � /r Afton o�> I )1�._.. - _. .• � N 3 P � O N ` 0 0 SJ �� r� IN `'•, Spring Lake I _ 52 S �i G / l u Prescott gs ` ^ • i p � o fit oq 4t Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Demographic Analysis Tables 1 through 5 on Pages 5 through 7 show key economic and demographic variables related to the demand for senior housing in the PMA (age distribution of the senior population and household base, senior household income, senior homeownership rates, and single - family home resale trends). This demographic data is from ESRI, a national demographics firm, and adjusted by Viewpoint Consulting Group based on local growth trend data. Home resale data is from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors. The key demographic and economic findings are summarized on the following pages. Senior Population and Household Trends ► The total population in the PMA in 2010 was 45,329. The overall population is projected to grow slightly through 2017 (to 47,800) as home building increases from very low levels the past several years. / In 2010, the senior population (age 65 +) in the PMA was 4,041, an increase from 2,525 in 2000, or +60%). ► Cottage Grove's population of 34,589 in 2010 accounted for 76% of the total PMA population. Cottage Grove accounted for 70% of the population over age 65 within the PMA. Newport and St. Paul Park in the PMA have older populations. / Between 2012 and 2017, all senior age groups in the PMA will experience strong growth. The population ages 65 to 74 will grow at a fast pace as the first baby boomers began turning 65 in 2011. Despite the slower growth of older seniors, the PMA's 75+ population is still projected to grow by 18% over the next five years. Senior Household Incomes ► The target market for senior housing with support services is generally senior households age 75 and older with incomes of at least $30,000 (plus some lower- income senior homeowners). In 2012, an estimated 566 households age 75 and older had incomes of at least $30,000. When factoring in inflation, households would generally need incomes of at least $35,000 to qualify for market rate senior housing with services. Despite growth of the senior population, the number of income - qualified households in 2017 is projected to remain stable due to minimal income gains. It should be noted that since assisted living and memory care housing are predominately need driven, seniors with low incomes are still candidates for private pay housing if they have home equity or other savings that they can utilize to pay for the costs. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 3 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Senior Household Tenure Seniors who own their homes have an additional source of income through the sale of their home that can be utilized for alternative housing. Upon the sale of their home, the proceeds can be invested and the income used dollar for dollar as supplementary income for housing and services. As Table 4 illustrates, as of 2010, a very high percentage of seniors up to age 84 in the PMA are homeowners. The sharp drop in the homeownership rate among the age 85+ population highlights how rental housing becomes much more predominant as seniors' care needs rise and /or they no longer desire to maintain a single - family home. Home Value Trends / Seniors can use the proceeds from the sale of their home to off -set the cost of senior housing. Home values in the PMA are average when compared to the metro area. A senior selling their home for $190,000 (about the median resale price of a single - family home in Cottage Grove in 2012) could receive an investment return of approximately $440 monthly from the sale (sale price minus 7% sales agent fees, and a 3% annual return on their investment). If a senior uses the full home sale proceeds towards the cost of alternative housing, the home sale proceeds would cover the costs at an assisted living facility ($3,500 per month) for approximately four years. At a memory care facility ($5,000 per month), the same amount of home sale proceeds would last roughly three years. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 4 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Table 1 Senior Population Growth Trends and Projections Primary Market Area 2000 to 2017 Table 2 Senior Household Growth Trends and Projections Primary Market Area 2000 to 2017 Change, 2012 to 2017 Age 2000 2010 2012 2017 No. Pct. 55 to 59 1,826 2,683 2,834 3,062 228 8.0% 60 to 64 1,252 2,250 2,417 2,683 266 11.0% 65 to 69 966 1,432 1,570 1,940 370 23.6% 70 to 74 730 1,031 1,152 1,499 347 30.2% 75 to 79 448 762 811 966 155 19.1% 80 to 84 223 480 500 555 55 11.0% 85+ 158 336 377 466 88 23.5% Total 65+ 2,525 4,041 4,410 5,425 1,016 23.0% Total 75+ 829 1,578 1,688 1,986 298 17.7% Total Population 41,022 45,329 45,957 47,800 1,843 4.0% Sources: ESRI; 2000 Census; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Table 2 Senior Household Growth Trends and Projections Primary Market Area 2000 to 2017 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 5 February 12, 2013 Change, 2012 to 2017 Age 2000 2010 2012 2017 No. Pct. 55 to 64 1,764 2,809 2,948 3,237 289 9.8% 65 to 74 1,091 1,498 1,635 2,069 434 26.5% 75+ 570 1,088 1,148 1,351 203 17.7% Total 65+ 1,661 2,586 2,783 3,420 637 22.9% Total Households 15,772 15,905 16,815 910 5.7% Sources: ESRI; 2010 Census; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 5 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Table 3 Household Incomes by Age of Householder Primary Market Area 2012 and 2017 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 6 February 12, 2013 2012 Households by Age Income 55-64 65 -74 75+ <$15,000 152 188 172 $15,000 to $24,999 134 181 265 $25,000 to $34,999 185 214 292 $35,000 to $49,999 365 241 222 $50,000 to $74,999 747 375 125 $75,000 to $99,999 506 194 43 $100,000 to $149,999 534 185 23 $150,000+ 325 59 6 Total 2,948 1,635 1,148 Median HH Income $69,834 $49,531 $28,672 2017: Households by Age Income 55-64 65 -74 75+ <$15,000 143 231 224 $15,000 to $24,999 86 167 278 $25,000 to $34,999 129 204 283 $35,000 to $49,999 317 260 265 $50,000 to $74,999 733 461 168 $75,000 to $99,999 729 353 81 $100,000 to $149,999 679 296 41 $150,000+ 421 96 12 Total 3,237 2,069 1,351 Median HH Income $80,372 $56,907 $30,237 Sources: ESRI; 2010 Census; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 6 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Table 4 Tenure by Age of Householder Primary Market Area 2010 Table 5 Single - Family Home Values Cottage Grove 2010 to 2012 owners Renters Average Cumulative Households No. Pct. No. Pct. Days on Market Age 55 to 64 2,605 92.7% 204 7.3% Age 65 to 74 1,365 91.1% 133 8.9% Age 75 to 84 696 83.1% 142 16.9% Age 85+ 138 55.2% 112 44.8% Total 4,804 89.0% 591 11.0% Total Age 65+ 2,199 85.0% 387 15.0% Total Age 75+ 834 76.7% 254 23.3% Sources: ESRI; 2010 Census; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. 31,082 $167,000 Table 5 Single - Family Home Values Cottage Grove 2010 to 2012 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. page 7 February 12, 2013 No. of Median Average Cumulative Year Sales Sale Price Days on Market Cottag ' G,rove . . 2010 327 $190,000 117 2011 315 $177,000 128 2012 475 $189,950 93 Twin Cities Ileglon 2010 28,557 $185,000 127 2011 31,082 $167,000 142 2012 36,893 $184,000 114 Sources: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors; Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. page 7 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Senior Housing Supply Senior Housing Defined Senior housing encompasses a wide variety of product types. The properties that include the lowest level of services are adult properties, which offer virtually no support services or health care, but restrict tenancy to those age 55 and over. Adult properties can be rental or owner - occupied (attached or detached townhomes, condominiums and cooperatives). Congregate properties, better known as independent living, offer support services such as meals and housekeeping. These services are either included in the rent or offered a -la -carte so that residents can choose whether or not to pay for them. Independent living projects attract an older and frailer senior population than adult projects (generally seniors age 75 and over). The most service - intensive housing types are assisted living, memory care, and enhanced care suites as they offer the highest level of services short of a nursing home. Some of the typical services they provide are meals, housekeeping, linen changes, personal laundry, 24 -hour emergency response and a wide range of personal -care and therapeutic services. The meals and services are either built into the monthly fee, charged through a tiered service package or offered a -la- carte. This report provides initial demand calculations for independent, assisted living, and memory care housing. Competitive Senior Housing Properties Table 6 shows the inventory of senior housing properties that would provide competition to a new development on the Site in Cottage Grove. For each competitive property, Table 6 provides information on location, year built, whether or not it is located in the PMA, its distance from the Site, its estimated competitiveness and its total competitive units. The competitive percentage is estimated based on a property's distance from the Site, its location within or near the PMA, and its community orientation (i.e., its estimated primary draw area). The following are key highlights about the competitive supply. A total of six competitive properties were identified in and near the PMA. Only two of the competitive properties are located in the PMA— White Pine and Norris Square. These two properties combine for a total of 241 units of independent, assisted living, and memory care housing. White Pine and Norris Square are both less than two miles from Site and share the same draw area — hence they are considered 100% competitive and all their units are competitive. / The service level mix of the competitive units located in the PMA is 86 independent units, 84 assisted living units, and 62 memory care units. All of the competitive independent units are at Norris Square, as White Pine contains only assisted living and memory care housing. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page s February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN ► The competitive properties located outside the PMA boundary are all in Woodbury. Other surrounding properties are located across the Mississippi River in Inver Grove Heights and Hastings. Since access across the River is limited to a couple bridges, properties in Hastings and Inver Grove Heights would have limited competitiveness with a new development on the Site and are not included in Table 6. ► The properties in Woodbury are located over four miles from the Site and to account for slight draw area overlap, are estimated at 10% competitive. They combine for a total of 34 competitive units (nine independent units, 20 assisted living units, and six memory care units). ► The closest competitive property is White Pine, located 1.2 miles from the Site. White Pine consists of an assisted living building that opened in 2008 and a memory care building that opened in 2011. Norris Square is located 1.6 miles from the Site and has a total of 146 units. It opened in 2008 and has 86 independent units, 42 assisted living units, and 18 memory care units. / Woodbury Estates and Woodbury Villa are located on the same campus (Woodbury Senior Living) at Lake Road and Woodlane Drive. Woodbury Health Care Center is also located on the campus. Woodbury Estates and Woodbury Villa combine for 87 independent units, 139 assisted living units, and eight memory care units. At 10% competitiveness, they supply the PMA with 14 competitive assisted living units and one competitive memory care units. / Stonecrest in Woodbury is a 164 -unit property that opened in 2000. It offers multiple levels of care and accounting for draw area overlap, supplies the PMA with nine competitive independent units, six competitive assisted living units, and two competitive memory care units. 1 Prelude Homes opened in 2011. Accounting for draw area overlap, this property supplies the PMA with three competitive memory care units. / Overall, the properties identified in Table 6 supply the PMA with 95 competitive independent units, 104 competitive assisted living units, and 68 competitive memory care units. While the properties are all market rate, a small portion of the residents are lower - income seniors utilizing the Elderly Waiver program. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 9 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Table 6 Competitive Senior Housing Supply Primary Market Area January 2013 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 10 February 12, 2013 Miles Percent Year Number In the from Comp- Compet- Property Name Location Built of Units PMA Site etitive' itive Units Independent' Living Norris Square Cottage Grove 2008 86 Yes 1.6 100% 86 Stonecrest Woodbury 2000 87 No 4.8 10% 9 Subtotal 173 95 Assisted Living White Pine Cottage Grove 2008 42 Yes 1.2 100% 42 Norris Square Cottage Grove 2008 42 Yes 1.6 100% 42 Woodbury Estates Woodbury 1998 64 No 4.2 10% 6 Woodbury Villa Woodbury 1985 75 No 4.2 10% 8 Stonecrest Woodbury 2000 59 No 4.8 10% 6 Subtotal 282 104 Memory Care White Pine Cottage Grove 2011 44 Yes 1.2 100% 44 Norris Square Cottage Grove 2008 18 Yes 1.6 100% 18 Prelude Homes Woodbury 2011 30 No 4.0 10% 3 Woodbury Estates Woodbury 1998 8 No 4.2 10% 1 Stonecrest Woodbury 2000 18 No 4.8 10% 2 Subtotal 118 68 ' Percent Competitive is estimated by the researcher based on the competitive property's distance from the subect Site, location within /near the PMA, its community orientation, and specific characteristics Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 10 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Competitive Senior Housing Properties 7 P niish O Newp rt O �y st ant rk *SITE ',Inver - o rove Cottage Heights Grove I ,o v White Pine `r. Norris Square it J (29 Spring Lake li (55) _ 52 l Oates Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 11 February 12, 2013 .i•. Landfall "'� ', it �� i O LAkelan t t� ko(and Shares p St Paul �i - -- �3� ��_ 20 , - Lake st ' 70 Croix �- Woodbury Beach \`.,.� Stonecrest o . st Mary's Point p >" 'est St Paul /l Woodbury Estate's -. Afton o ,- o South St Paul � � Woodbury Villa IR Prelude of Woodbury ^' o � G N 7 P niish O Newp rt O �y st ant rk *SITE ',Inver - o rove Cottage Heights Grove I ,o v White Pine `r. Norris Square it J (29 Spring Lake li (55) _ 52 l Oates Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 11 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Planned and Proposed Senior Housing Developments Planning staff at the municipalities in the PMA were surveyed to identify planned and proposed senior housing developments that may increase the future competitive supply. There are no potential market rate senior housing developments with services under planning review in the PMA. Thus no additional units are subtracted from 2017 demand calculations presented later in this assessment. Senior Housing Demand Calculations Tables 7 through 9 provide initial demand calculations for the number of market rate independent living, assisted living, and memory care units that can be supported in the PMA in 2012 and 2017, along with an estimate on the number of units that can be supported on the Site in Cottage Grove. Independent Senior Living As shown in Table 7, unmet demand for independent living housing on a site in Cottage Grove is calculated for 78 units in 2017. The following points summarize the demand methodology. The target market for independent living housing is senior households age 75+ with incomes of $30,000 or more plus households with incomes between $20,000 and $30,000 who would qualify with the proceeds from a home sale. There would also be some limited demand from seniors under age 75. These seniors are the "age /income - qualified base." A capture rate —or "penetration rate" — is applied to the income - qualified base of younger and older seniors. The penetration rates are based on the current penetration rates of independent senior housing in the Twin Cities Metro Area. Applying the penetration rates to the age /income - qualified base results in demand for 131 independent units in 2012, growing to 144 units in 2017. Senior developments can typically expect approximately one - quarter of their residents to come from outside their primary market area. We project that a senior development on the Site can draw a slightly higher percentage from outside the PMA; primarily due to its close proximity to Woodbury which is outside the PMA. We estimate that seniors currently residing outside the PMA will generate 30% of the total demand for independent senior housing. This demand from outside the PMA increases total demand to 188 units in 2012 and 206 units in 2017. We subtract the number of existing competitive units (minus a 5% vacancy factor) from the total demand resulting in excess demand for 98 units in the PMA in 2012. There are no planned independent senior living units in the PMA identified that would increase the competitive supply. Subtracting existing units from 2017 total demand results in excess demand potential in the PMA for 116 units in 2017. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 12 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN No single site can capture all of the demand in a PMA. Based on the geographic size of the PMA and the Site's location within the PMA, we estimate that the Site can capture 55% of the excess demand potential. This results in excess demand on the Site for 55 independent living units in 2012 growing to 64 units in 2017. Table 7 Independent Senior Housing Demand Calculation Primary Market Area 2012 and 2017 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 13 February 12, 2013 2012 2017 A 65 to 74 Households in the PMA 1,635 2,069 B Percent income - qualified 82% 81% C Potential penetration rate of independent living housing 0.5% 0.5% D Income - qualified 65 -74 households in the PMA (A x B x C) 7 8 E 75+ Households in the PMA 1,148 1,351 F Percent income - qualified 68% 63% G Potential penetration rate of independent living housing 16% 16% H Income - qualified 75+ households in the PMA (E x F x G) 125 136 1 Total demand for independent housing from the PMA (D + H) 131 144 1 Estimated percent of demand from outside the PMA 30% 30% K Total demand for independent living units in the PMA (I / (1 -J)) 188 206 L Competitive independent living supply* 90 90 M Excess independent living demand (K - L) 98 116 N Estimated percent of demand capturable by subject Site 55% 55% O Independent living demand on the subject Site (M x N) 54 64 * Competitive units minus a 5% vacancy factor Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 13 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Assisted Livins As shown in Table 8, unmet assisted living demand on the Site in Cottage Grove has been calculated for 28 units in 2017. This demand is for market rate (or "private pay ") units and does not include additional demand from lower- income seniors who could utilize the Elderly Waiver program to pay for services. The following points summarize our demand methodology. The primary market for assisted living housing in the PMA is seniors ages 75 and over needing assistance with Activities of Daily Living (ADLs). Based on data from the Health and Aging Chartbook that was conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Center for Health Statistics, the percentage of seniors unable to perform, or having difficulty with, ADLs ranges from 25.5% of seniors ages 75 to 79, 33.6% of seniors ages 80 to 84 and 51.6% of seniors ages 85 and over. Applying these percentages to the senior population in the PMA results in the total age - qualified population needing assistance with ADLs. To afford market rents, these seniors will generally need incomes of at least $40,000 or have assets available through the proceeds received from the sale of their home. Overall, we calculate that 49% of the senior population in the PMA in 2012 was income - qualified for market rate assisted living housing. We estimate that 70% of the age /income - qualified seniors needing assistance will be able to remain in their homes by receiving home health care services or will live in other less service - intensive senior housing. This percentage also takes into account that many seniors are not living alone and will be able to remain in their existing homes with assistance from their spouse /partner. The remaining 30% will need /choose assisted living housing. We estimate that seniors who currently reside outside the PMA will generate 30% of the demand for assisted living senior housing— increasing total demand in the PMA to 119 units in 2012 and 139 units in 2017. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult children who live in the PMA. The next step in calculating demand is to subtract competitive supply from total PMA demand. A total of 104 competitive units were identified in Table 6. Subtracting these competitive units (minus 10% which are estimated to be occupied by lower- income residents utilizing the Elderly Waiver program to pay for services and a 5% vacancy factor) from total demand results in the excess demand for 30 assisted living units in the PMA in 2012. No pending developments were identified that would increase the competitive supply serving the PMA by 2017. Excess demand is calculated for 51 units in the PMA in 2017. Again, no single site can capture all of the demand in a PMA. We estimate that the Site in Cottage Grove can capture 55% of the excess demand potential in the PMA. This results in excess demand on the Site for 17 market rate assisted living units in 2012 growing to 28 market rate units in 2017. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 14 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Table 8 Market Rate Assisted Living Demand Calculation Primary Market Area 2012 and 2017 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 15 February 12, 2013 2012 2017 A 75 to 79 Population in the PMA 811 966 B Percent needing ADL assistance 25.5% 25.5% C Estimated population needing ADL assistance (A x B) 207 246 D 80 to 84 Population in the PMA 500 555 E Percent needing ADL assistance 33.6% 33.6% F Estimated population needing ADL assistance (D x E) 168 187 G 85+ Population in the PMA 377 466 H Percent needing ADL assistance 51.6% 51.6% 1 Estimated population needing ADL assistance (G x H) 195 240 J Total 75+ population needing ADL assistance (C +F +I) 569 673 K Percent of PMA population income - qualified 48.8% 48.4% L Total income - qualified population needing ADL assistance (1 x K) 278 325 M Potential penetration rate of assisted living housing 30% 30% N Total demand for assisted living units (L x M) 83 98 0 Estimated percent of demand from outside the PMA 30% 30% P Total demand for assisted living units in the PMA IN / (1 -0)) 119 139 Q Competitive assisted living supply* 89 89 R Excess assisted living demand (P - Q) 30 51 S Estimated percent of demand capturable by subject Site 55% 55% T Assisted living demand on the subject Site (R x S) 17 28 * Competitive units minus a 5% vacancy factor Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 15 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Memory Care Table 9 calculates unmet memory care demand on the Site in Cottage Grove for 17 units in 2017. Like assisted living, this demand is for market rate units and does not include additional demand from lower- income seniors who could utilize the Elderly Waiver program to pay for services. The following points summarize our demand methodology. Demand is calculated by multiplying the PMA age 65+ population in 2012 and 2017 by the incidence rate of Alzheimer's /dementia (based on data from the Alzheimer's Association: Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures — 2007). An estimated 462 seniors living in the PMA as of 2012 had a memory impairment. Due to the high cost of memory care housing, the income needed to afford market rate memory care is much higher than independent and assisted living housing. The income - qualified base for memory care housing is defined as 85% of households with incomes of at least $60,000 plus 40% of homeowners with incomes below $60,000. The majority of seniors with dementia are able to live independently with the assistance of a caregiver, while those in the latter stages of dementia require intensive medical care that is only available in skilled nursing facilities. Some also choose other types of housing like adult foster care. An estimated 30% of age /income - qualified people with memory impairment constitute the market for memory care housing. An estimated 30% of the demand for memory care housing would come from seniors residing outside of the PMA. This additional demand brings the total demand within the PMA to 72 units in 2012 growing to 89 units in 2017. The competitive supply is then subtracted from the total demand to reveal unmet demand. A total of 68 competitive units were identified serving the PMA. Subtracting these competitive units (minus 5% that are estimated to be occupied by lower- income residents utilizing the Elderly Waiver program and a 5% vacancy factor) results in the excess demand for 11 memory care units in 2012. No pending developments were identified that would increase the competitive supply by 2017. Subtracting the existing competitive units from the total demand results in excess demand for 28 units in 2017. No single site can capture all of the demand in a PIMA. We estimate that the Site in Cottage Grove can capture 55% of the excess demand potential in the PMA. This results in excess demand on the Site for six market rate memory care units in 2012 growing to 15 units in 2017. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 16 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Table 9 Market Rate Memory Care Housing Demand Calculation Primary Market Area 2012 and 2017 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 17 February 12, 2013 2012 2017 A 65 to 75 Population 2,721 3,439 B Dementia incidence rate 2.0% 2.0% C Estimated population with Dementia (A x B) 54 69 D 75 to 84 Population 1,311 1,521 E Dementia incidence rate 19.0% 19.0% F Estimated population with Dementia (D x E) 249 289 G 85+ Population 377 466 H Dementia incidence rate 42.0% 42.0% 1 Estimated population with Dementia (G x H) 158 196 J Total population with Dementia (C+ F + 1) 462 553 K Percent of population income - qualified 36% 37% L Total income - qualified population needing assistance (J x K) 168 207 M Potential penetration rate of specialized memory care housing 30% 30% N Total demand for memory care units (L x M) 50 62 O Estimated percent of demand from outside the PMA 30% 30% P Total demand for memory care units in the PMA (N / (1- 0)) 72 89 Q Competitive memory care supply 61 61 R Excess memory care demand (P - Q) 11 28 S Percent of demand capturable by subject Site 55% 55% T Memory care demand on the subject Site (R x S) 6 1s * Competitive units minus a 5% vacancy factor Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 17 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN Demand Summary The age 75 and over population nearly doubled in the PMA last decade and is projected to continue growing rapidly through 2017. As a result, demand for senior housing is also growing, although the pace of growth is tempered by projected flat incomes. The initial demand for market rate senior housing on the Site in Cottage Grove is summarized in Table 10. Total unmet demand in the PMA for the three service - levels is projected to increase from 139 units in 2012 to 195 units in 2017. The estimated portion of demand that can be captured by the Site is 55 %. In 2014, when the proposed development would potentially open, this capture rate equates to demand on the Site for 58 independent units, 21 assisted living units, and 10 memory care units, for a total of 89 units. If residency is allowed to some lower- income seniors utilizing the Elderly Wavier program, then a few more assisted living and memory care units could be supported on the Site. Table 10 Summary of Initial Demand Calculations for Market Rate Housing Primary Market Area 2012 and 2017 Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 18 February 12, 2013 Total Unmet Demand PMA Competitive PMA on Subject Demand Supply Demand Site 2012 Independent Living 188 90 98 54 Assisted Living 119 89 30 17 Memory Care 72 61 11 6 Total 379 240 139 76 2014 Independent Living 195 90 105 58 Assisted Living 127 89 38 21 Memory Care 79 61 18 10 Total 401 240 161 89 2017 Independent Living 206 90 116 64 Assisted Living 139 89 51 28 Memory Care 89 61 28 15 Total 434 240 195 107 Source: Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 18 February 12, 2013 Senior Housing Demand Assessment: Cottage Grove, MN As noted in the introduction of this report, the purpose of this initial assessment is to broadly assess the depth of demand for senior housing in the local area to determine if potential exists to support a new development. Thus, the findings are preliminary and should be viewed in that light. A full market feasibility study would more closely examine factors such as the desirability of the Site and the performance of competitive buildings, both of which may impact demand. Viewpoint Consulting Group, Inc. Page 19 February 12, 2013 John Burbank From: Jennifer Levitt Sent: Monday, May 13, 20131:43 PM To: John Burbank Subject: FW: Summerhill Crossing Senior Housing - sanitary sewer capacity analysis Attachments: Sewer calcs 051313.pdf, Parcel Sketch Map.pdf From: Schleeter, Brad [mailto:Brad.Schleeter @stantec.com] Sent: Monday, May 13, 2013 1:39 PM To: Jennifer Levitt Cc: Sanocki, Dave Subject: Summerhill Crossing Senior Housing - sanitary sewer capacity analysis Jennifer, I've attached information regarding the sewer capacity analysis for Summerhill Crossing Senior Housing based on the water meter reading information that you sent me. The first pdf is the sewer calculations and the second is a parcel sketch map showing the parcels involved in this analysis. Based on this information, I have the following comments and questions: 1. The average sewer flow calculations for the three existing properties only look at the domestic water usage quantities (irrigation water usage is excluded). 2. The average sewer flow generation for the three existing properties only reflects the average daily flow generation for the peak flow month (the highest total monthly consumption value is divided by the total number of days in the meter reading period). This average number does not reflect any daily peaks in sewer flow, rather it is a monthly average based on the best information available. We believe that this approach is acceptable as the peak flow factor used to estimate the design flow rate for this area accounts for daily peaks in sewer flow. 3. Our estimate of average sewer flow from the three existing properties is 1,398 gal /ac /day, which is slightly less but comparable to the assumed unit flow rate from the 2008 CSP for commercial /industrial land use of 1,500 gal /ac /day. 4. Our average sewer flow estimate for the Senior Housing facility uses the unit flow rate for High Density Residential land uses from the 2008 CSP (120 gal /unit/day), that assumes 2 people per unit. We realize that this assumption is conservative as many of the units will be single occupancy, however, we didn't want to deviate from the 2008 CSP assumptions. Does the applicant have sewer flow information from other existing facilities that could help in refining this unit flow rate assumption? 5. Another factor that could impact the flow from the three existing users is future expansion or ultimate build -out. Are there any plans for future expansion of the existing users that would generate additional flow? Are the existing users at their maximum occupancy or will there be addition occupants /tenants contributing flow in the future? Either of these scenarios could increase flows from the existing users. 6. Our calculations indicate that the estimated average flow from the three existing properties plus the Senior Housing facility (0.017 MGD) is close to the original average flow assumption from the 2008 CSP (0.015 MGD). However, given the existing downstream sewer capacity issues, it would be helpful to address the questions raised above to increase our level of comfort with the proposed Senior Housing facility. Could you review this information and let me know if you have any follow up questions on this analysis. Thank you, Brad Schleeter Project Manager Stantec 2335 Highway 36 West St. Paul MN 55113 Ph: (651) 604 -4801 Cell: (651) 775 -5160 brad.schleeter - stantec.com stantec.com The content of this email is the confidential property of Stantec and should not be copied, modified, retransmitted, or used for any purpose except with Stanteds written authorization. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete all copies and notify us immediately. Please consider the environment before printing this email. This email has been scanned by the Symantee Email Security.cloud service. For more information please visit htip: / /www.symanteccloud.com Water Consumption Records for Existing Summerhlll Commercial Bldg (6936 Pine Arbor Dr S) 5/13/2013 Reading Month Da of Readin StimReadin End Reading I Consumption Av118m Caasumptlon HOW gallons( IWOgagar) (gallons) I (MGDJ September 2011 28 469 470 9000 0.0003 October 2011 29 428 482 900 011003 November 2011 33 482 492 1000 0.033 December 2011 30 497 507 1WC0 0.033 January 2012 30 507 516 9000 0.033 February 2012 31 516 526 loom 0.0003 March 2012 31 526 535 9000 0.033 April 2002 29 535 545 10000 0.003 May 2012 32 545 554 9000 0.033 June 2012 29 554 564 mow 0pm3 July 2012 30 564 94 l0 0.003 August 2012 31 574 584 133 0.0003 September 2012 1 30 1 SAM 1 594 1300 OAm3 October 2012 33 594 605 1 flow O.o003 November 2012 30 605 616 110 2 0.0004 Oecemher 2012 29 616 626 10000 come January 2013 34 626 1 632 FIND OAw3 February 2013 29 632 1 640 13000 OA34 March 2013 28 648 1 658 10" 0.004 Water Consumption Records for Existing Health East Bldg (6939 Pine Arbor Dr S) reading Month nasof Reatling Start Reading I and Reading Consumption Average Consumption t10oDga11 ons( HOME.11onsl (gallons) IMGOI September 2011 28 387 395 8000 0.O03 October 2011 29 395 403 0000 0.033 November 2011 33 403 412 903 O.0w3 December 2011 30 412 420 Bm0 0.003 January 2012 30 420 429 9000 0.0303 February 2012 31 429 438 9000 0.m03 March 2012 31 438 448 10 0.0003 April 2012 29 448 458 loom 0.0003 May 2012 32 458 468 loom 0.0003 June 2012 29 468 4]] 9000 0.0003 July 2012 30 4]] 486 9000 D.0003 August 2012 31 486 53 1420 O.Ows September 2012 1 30 1 500 1 Slo lam O.Om3 October 2012 33 510 534 24000 0.000] November 2012 30 04 545 1102 0.004 December 2012 29 545 556 11000 0.034 January 2013 34 555 566 U.S. agent February 2013 28 565 584 ]How O.00N Mara, 2013 28 584 604 20000 0.0007 Water Consumption Records for Existing Holiday Station (6921 Pine Arbor Dr S) Reading ManIM1 I D,rs of Itudingl SFart Reading 1 End Reading Consarmlim Average Consumption (100ga11an5) I (Derogations) i t (MGD) September 2011 28 2090 2239 14120 0.0050 October 2011 29 2239 2350 111000 0.038 November 2011 33 2350 2504 154000 0.347 December 2011 30 2504 2204 league 0.0067 January 2012 30 2204 2922 223000 0.0024 February 2012 31 2927 3176 249WO 0.0080 March 2012 31 3176 3375 199MD 0.0064 April 2012 29 3375 3490 11520 0.0040 May 2012 32 3490 3641 151000 0.0042 June 2012 29 3641 3842 20100 0.039 July 2012 30 3042 NOT 16100 0.0054 August 2012 31 4003 4174 171W0 0.0055 September 1 2012 1 30 1 4124 1 4340 1 166000 1 0.055 October 2012 33 4340 4481 141W0 0.023 November 2012 30 4481. 4603 122000 0.241 December 1 2012 29 4603 4761 1 SSB000 0.054 January 2013 34 4261 5039 228000 0.082 February M13 28 339 5234 195m0 0.0020 March 2013 28 5234 5430 196000 0.0020 Area summary -see attached for more "nformaf on of P Mao Area of Existing mpereies= S.D Total Area of Ensting Properties and Proportion of ROW in Odglonal 10.3 Arm Are a (5.2]aC +1,38 ae)= Area of Proposed Summerhlll crossing Sr NODS ng= 2.89 Existing Unit Flow Pate= Total Developable Area in Summerhlll Crossing= 8;16 acres 5ummerM1lll Cmssln, ROW, 2.14 Proportion of ROW Area within original 10 %acre area for existing developed properties ((5.22 ac/8.16 at)': ac)= 138 Inces Exisdne Prmertles Sewer Analysis Total Existing Average Flow (from above)= 0.02 MGD Total Area of Ensting Properties and Proportion of ROW in Odglonal 10.3 Arm Are a (5.2]aC +1,38 ae)= 6.65 e5 Existing Unit Flow Pate= 1398 gapac / day Summmthill Cosine 51 Hdusine proposed Dpits= 66 CSP Dan Flow Rate= 120 gal /unit /day Estimated Average How =1 O.WB IMGD J_ { �{ / ƒ ,! \� ) ]#� § \(} k \( §M &§ §M k� Bz .!� 7 7� O� » / I \ ,,, i § !$; _ vi \ - �� i \)\ 7 ; # §2 ? Er )§ 1 i H zj \ § 7 7� O� » !/( .69, .. ( 7 7� O� » EXHIBIT D 01CONSULTING GROUP, INC. Transportation • Civil • Structural • Environmental - Planning • Traffic - Landscape Architecture • Parking SRF No. 0014337 SRF No. 0014339 TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM TO: Kim Lindquist, AICP, Community Development Director CITY of COTTAGE GROVE FROM: Dennis R. Eyler, P.E., P.T.O.E., Vice President — Traffic Engineering Jeff Bednar, Senior Traffic Engineering Specialist DATE: October 24, 2001 O SUBJECT: TRAFFIC TWACT S'T'UDY FOR ITIE PROPOSED COTTAGE GROVE NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER (RYGH PUD) AND MIXED DENSITY RESIDENTIAL SUBDIVISION (THowsON LAND DEVELOPMENT) NORTH OF 70 .. STREET AND WEST OF HINTON AVENUE Introduction As you requested, we have completed the traffic impact study and analysis for the subject development area (see Figure 1). This traffic impact study will consider the 8.5- acre,, multi -use (conven<enre /gas, retail commercial and senior houshng) Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) development and the 72 -acre, 300+ unit multi - family residential. development (Thompson Land Development) proposed for the study area in Cottage Grove, Minnesota. The major traffic related issues addressed in this traffic impact study include: • Full Access versus Right -in /right -out only or 3/ site access for (Street "D ") to 70th Street including access /intersection sight distance. • Conversion of a temporary full access to a right- Wright-out only access (Street "A ") versus complete closure of this (Street "A ") access. • Access location; number and design, specifically for the western portion of the site • Trip generation estimates and traffic assignments to include adjustments for on -site multi -use trips, pass -by trips and other captured trips. • Development- generated traffic operations impacts (capacity /levels of service, intersection geometry, lane use and traffic control strategies) at the study area key intersections. • Traffic impacts to the adjoining neighborhood east of Hinton Avenue. • Internal site circulation plus issues related to existing gravel - mining site. Based on this traffic impact study and analysis, the following findings, conclusions and recommendations are offered for your consideration. One Carlson Parkway North, Suite 150, Minneapolis, MN 55447 -4443 Telephone (763) 475 -0010 w Fax (763) 475 -2429 it http: / /www.srfconsulting.com An Equal Opportunity Employer Kim Lindquist Existing Conditions -2- October 24, 2001 Current traffic volumes within the study area can be characterized as moderate. All study area key intersections appear to be operating at acceptable levels of service (based on observations during a study area site visit). Proposed Development The land use assumed for the two proposed subject developments can be characterized as a mix of retail, office, service commercial, senior housing and low to medium density residential uses (see Figures 2 and 3). Based on the appropriate average trip generation rates from the 1997 Institute of Transportation Engineers "Trip Generation" report, it is estimated that this proposed land use would generate a total of 5,436 daily trips, 415 morning and 541 afternoon peak hour trips (see Table 1). The convenience /gas land use proposed in the Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh Development) may generate up to 60 percent pass -by trips. Pass -by trips are trips that are captured by a land use from the passing through traffic on adjacent roadways. Due to this level of pass -by trips only 40 percent of the proposed convenience /gas land use generated total trips (or only 734 of 1834 total daily trips) are new trio's on the adjacent roadway system. Table 1 Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) and Mixed Density Residential Subdivision (Thompson Land Development) Trip Generation Estimates LAND USE TYPE DAILY UNITS Total TxtPS A.M. PEAK HOUR_ P.M. PEAK HOUR . Trips In Trips Out Trips In Trips Out Proposed Rygh PUD Senior Housing Units 80 units 278 4 2 5 5 Day Care Center 10,000 S.F. 793 68 60 62 70 RetaiUO"ce Commercial 18,000 S.F. 773 12 7 33 35 Convenience /Gas with Car Wash 12 pumps 1,834 65 63 84 84 Subtotals 3,678 149 132 184 194 Thompson Land Development Residential Twin Home Units 72 units 422 6 27 261 13 Residential Town Home Units 44 units 258 41 16 16 8 Residential Lodges Units 184 units 1,078 14 67 67 33 Subtotals 1,758 24 110 109 54 Totals 5,436 173 242 293 248 Kim Lindquist -3 - October 24, 2001 Proposed Site Access The proposed development preliminary site plans indicate two access locations on 70 Street (CSAH 22) plus access to Hinton Avenue at 69 Street (an existing intersection serving the neighborhood to the east). Future site access to the west would be provided to a future extension of Harkness/Hardwood Avenue north of 70` Street. Classified as "A" Minor Arterials, both 70 Street (CSAH 22) and Hinton Avenue (Future CSAH 13) can provide access only at a minimum of 1 /4 mile spacing (per Washington County's Access Spacing Policy). However, while the intersection of Hinton Avenue and 69 Street is less than 1 /a mile from 70 Street, this site access location would be acceptable since it is at an existing intersection. The proposed concept plan for this Hinton Avenue and 69 Street site access shows a west intersection leg with a wide center median presumably for development monumentation and landscaping purposes. Washington County has indicated that they will require that the lanes on this new intersection leg align with the existing lanes on 69 Street east of Hinton Avenue. This lane alignment will preclude the wide center median proposed on the new intersection leg. The proposed east site access (Street "D ") on 70 Street is also less than t /a mile west of Hinton Avenue (approximately 660 feet). However, since roadway profile and site grading issues limit alternative locations, Washington Cpunty may allow this proposed site access with restrictions. Because of restricted sight distance to the west, the County would not allow a "full" access at this location. Only a Right- In/Right -Out (RI/RO) access or possibly a 3 /a intersection (allows the left -turn into the site but not the left -turn out of the site) would be allowed at this location. In order to construct an effective RI/RO intersection at this Street "D" site access location, a pork chop shaped raised island and appropriate signing restricting the left -turns will be required. A westbound right -turn lane to this access will also be required. To construct a 3 /a intersection at this location would require significant widening plus a raised median island on 70' Street from Hinton Avenue to a point approximately 900 feet west of the proposed site access. Without County funding participation the costs to construct this 3 /a intersection may outweigh the benefits. The proposed west site access (Street "A ") on 70 Street may be allowed as a temporary "full" access until Harkness/Hardwood Avenue is extended north of 70' Street. When Harkness Avenue is extended north of 70' Street site access could be provided to Harkness /Hardwood Avenue. After Harkness Avenue is extended the temporary Street "A" site access would be closed due to the proximity of this access to Harkness Avenue (approximately 500 feet). In terms of general site access planning, providing only a single site access to a future extension of Harkness Avenue, which would serve more than 225 dwelling units, raises concerns related to emergency response, internal site circulation and circuitous travel issues. Since the distance on 70 Street between Harkness and Hinton Avenues is about 1 /z mile, it is unlikely that the County would permit more than one access to 70 Street in this segment. Westward relocation of the east (Street "D ") site access and/or an internal connection of the west half of the proposed development to the east site access may be needed to mitigate these issues and concerns. Kim Lindquist -4- October 24, 2001 Traffic Forecasts The site - generated traffic plus assumed future background traffic was assigned to the study area roadway system using a computer traffic assignment model. This is a travel time and delay based computer model that assigns traffic between study area origins and destinations based on the shortest travel time routes. Traffic forecasts were developed for two site access alternatives: • An analysis scenario with two "full" site access locations on 70"' Street (CSAH 22). • A scenario with only one Right- In/Right -Out site access on 70 Street at 660 feet west of Hinton Avenue. The future background traffic was developed based on long -range (Year 2020) daily traffic forecasts provided by Washington County for 70` Street (CSAH 22) west of Hinton Avenue (11,000 ADT) and Hinton Avenue (future CSAH 13) north of 70 Street (15,500 ADT). The future traffic growth rate on Minton Avenue is significantly higher than might be considered typical due to the future realignment of Hinton Avenue /Tower Drive to make a more direct connection to Radio Drive and a more continuous north/south minor arterial connection to 1 -94. The directional trip distribution for the site - generated traffic was developed based on the regional distribution of households and employment, and the existing and forecast travel patterns within the study area (see Figure 4). This information in concert with a gravity model included in the computer traffic assignment model was used to develop the peak hour traffic forecasts for each site access scenario (see Appendix A and Figure 5 for Average Daily Traffic Forecasts). Traffic Operations Analysis A computer traffic. operations model was used to analyze the two site access scenarios. Adding the proposed subject development - generated traffic to the 2022 background traffic resulted in acceptable levels of service (LOS, see Appendix B) at all key intersections serving the study area and for both site access scenarios (see Table 2). Note that in these analyses Hinton Avenue (future CSAH 13) was assumed to be upgraded to a four lane divided roadway, plus turn lanes and traffic signal control would be added to all of the major study area key intersections. Future traffic signal control was assumed at the major study area key intersections including Hinton Avenue (future CSAH 13) and 69 Street based on the level of background traffic alone. While the proposed subject development will contribute to the need for future traffic signal control and geometric improvement of these intersections, it can be assumed that these future improvements will be required with or without the subject development- generated traffic. Under the "full" access scenario the southbound to eastbound left -turn at 70 Street and the Street "D" access will have very little capacity available to it due to the heavier traffic volume on 70 Street (very few gaps available in the heavier traffic flow on 70`' Street). This lack of capacity will cause significant delay for this left -turn movement. And as can be seen in the traffic assignment (see Appendix A) the computer model has assigned very few of these left - turns to this intersection due to this capacity and delay problem. It is easier for these eastbound movements to make the right -turn out of the site at the intersection of 69 Street and Hinton Avenue and then the southbound to eastbound left -turn at 70 Street and Hinton Avenue. Kim Lindquist -5- October 24, 2001 Table 2 Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) and Mixed Density Residential Subdivision (Thompson Land Development) Traffic Operations (LOS) Analysis Summary / Year 2022 Traffic Forecasts ACCESS SCENARIO/KEY INTERSECTION A.M. PEAK HOUR P.M. PEAK HOUR LOS Delay LOS Delay Two Full Access Locations on 70 "` Street 70 Street and Harkness Avenue (signalized) B 14.4 A -_ 9.2 70 ` Street and Street A/ west access (unsignalized) C 24.8 D 25.1 70" Street and Street D / east access (unsignalized) C 16.3 B 11.8 70 Street and Hinton Avenue (signalized) C 23.3 C 22.1 Hinton Avenue and 69 Street (signalized) A 5.2 A 4.8 Network -wide Performance Index/LOS 41.2/13 12.0 37.2/13 10.0 One Right- In/Right -Out Access on 70 Street 70 Street and Harkness Avenue (signalized) B 13.9 A 9.6 70 Street and Street D / RI/RO access (unsignalized) B 14.9 B 11.3 70 Street and Hinton Avenue (signalized) C 23.4 C 32.8 Hinton Avenue and 69 Street (signalized) A 5.2 A 4.8 Network -wide Performance Index/LOS 41.0/" 15.0 49.68 17.0 LOS = Level Of Service and Delay = Average intersection delay per vehicle in seconds. LOS and delay for unsignalized intersections is provided for the worst approach to that intersection. Identification and Evaluation of Site Access Alternatives The following long -range site access alternatives are identified and briefly evaluated. Further evaluation and consideration by the city, county and development team is recommended. Alternative A — One Right -In /Right -Out Access (Street "D" at the location proposed by the development team) on 70 Street with full access to Hinton Avenue at 69 Street and Harkness /Hardwood Avenue (as recommended by Washington County). This alternative does address the restricted site distance at the proposed Street "D" location by eliminating,the problem southbound to eastbound left -turn movement. And with the assumed future intersection traffic control and geometric improvements, the 70t Sheet intersections with Harkness and Hinton Avenues can accommodate the resultant additional site - generated traffic at these intersections. However, this alternative would result in about 225 dwelling units being essentially developed on a long cul -de -sac with only the single access to Harkness Avenue. This number of homes served by only one access does raise concerns for emergency response, the level of traffic on Street "A" near Harknees Avenue and circuity of travel. Kim Lindquist -6- October 24, 2001 There may be a long -range potential to provide a Y44 intersection (provides for the eastbound to northbound left -turn from 70 Street to the site) at this access location. This sub - alternative would require the County to reconstruct 70` Street (CSAH 22) to a divided section that would include the raised median island channelization that would be. necessary for this access provision. Alternative B — Same as Alternative A, but with an internal street connection between the east and west portions of the site that would provide access to the RI /R0 (Street "D ") access on 70 Street for the townhome portion of the site. This alternative would provide additional access to the western portion of the site and mitigate the concerns related to emergency response, the level of traffic on Street "A" near Harkness Avenue and circuity of travel. This alternative would however, require significant site grading in order to traverse the steep slope associated with the eastern limit of gravel mining activity on the site. The additional site - generated traffic using the Street "D" RI/R0 access on 70 Street under this alternative would not represent a significant traffic operations concern. Alternative C — Westward relocation of the Street 'D" Access on 70 Street to a location that would resolve the sight distance restriction and allow "full' access (approximately 880 feet west of Hinton Avenue — this distance will need to be verified). This alternative would provide a "full' site access on 70 Street. However, it may require substantial additional site grading and may impact the availability of 70` Street access to the Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) site. It should be expected that there would be limited capacity and significant delays for the southbound to eastbound left -turn at this relocated "full" site access. This site access alternative could also include the internal street connection in described in Alternative B above. Based on the low volume of left -turns forecast into and out of the site for this alternative it would appear to be difficult to justify the costs to implement. Alternative D — Eastward relocation of the Temporary Site Access east of Harkness Avenue (current proposed location is approximately 500 feet east of Harkness Avenue) to a location that may be acceptable to the County for a long -range RI /RO access (approximately 880 feet east of Harkness Avenue). This alternative would also provide additional access to the western portion of the site and mitigate the concerns related to emergency response, the level of traffic on Street "A" near Harkness Avenue and circuity of travel. This alternative would require substantial additional site grading in order to traverse the steep slope associated with the gravel mining activity on the site. However in this case the costs associated with this alternative could be justified by the benefits. Kim Lindquist -7- October 24, 2001 Traffic Impacts to the Adjoining Existing Neighborhood East of Hinton Avenue While the proposed subject developments will contribute to the need for future traffic signal control and geometric improvement at the intersection of Hinton Avenue and 69 Street, it can be assumed that these future improvements will be required with or without the subject development- generated traffic. This is due to the higher future background traffic volume on Hinton Avenue and the increased difficulty the existing neighborhood residents may have making the westbound to southbound left -turn out of the neighborhood from 69 "' Street. With future traffic control and geometric. improvements this intersection will operate at very acceptable levels of service. Concern has been raised by the neighborhood related to having the Street "D" access to 70 Street restricted to a RURO access resulting in higher use of the intersection of 69 Street and Hinton Avenue (particularly as it relates to the convenience /gas land use). As discussed earlier, (and as shown in Table 2 and Appendix A) there is not a significant difference between the "full and RURO Street "D" access alternatives in terms of traffic volume and/or operational performance at any of the study area key intersections and in particular the intersection of 69 Street and Hinton Avenue. This insignificant difference is due to the lower traffic volumes forecast at the Street "D" access location and the difficulty in making the left -turns into and specifically out of the site under the "full" access scenario. Based on the existing neighborhood,'s internal street system configuration, travel time estimates and the development- generated traffic origin/destination desires, it is unlikely that there would be a significant level of "through" traffic generated by the proposed developments that would use the neighborhood streets as "through" routes. Internal Site Circulation and Access A review of the concept site plans available for both development proposals indicates that the internal site circulation and access is generally well configured. However, an internal street connection between the east and west portions of the site would not only provide access to the Rl/RO (Street "D ") access on 70" Street for the townhome portion of the site and mitigate the concerns_ related to emergency response, the level of traffic on Street "A" near Harkness Avenue. and circuity of travel, but it would allow vehicular interaction within the site without having to use the adjacent arterial street system to travel within the neighborhood. In the site plan for the Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PIID) there are three driveways proposed in close proximity to each other in the center of a horizontal curve on the internal street serving the site. These conditions together may increase and complicate the driver's decision tasks and result in an increased potential for vehicular collision in this area of the site. Consideration should be given to reducing the number of driveways in this area. Kim Lindquist - 8 - October 24, 2001 Summary of Recommendations 1. Site Access Alternative A (One Right- In/Right -Out Access at Street "D" at the location proposed by the development team on 70 Street with full access to Hinton Avenue at 69` Street and Harkness /Hardwood Avenue) appears to offer the most effective and acceptable Street "D" site access configuration. The future reconfiguration of the Street " D" access to provide a 3 /4 access /intersection should be reserved and evaluated as part of any consideration of future reconstruction of 70' Street (CSAH 22) to a divided roadway section. 2. It is strongly recommended that more than one long -range access be provided to the western portion of the proposed site (residential townhomes area). Both Alternative B (an internal street connection between the east and west portions of the site that would provide access to the Street "D" RI/RO access on 70' Street) and Alternative D - Eastward relocation of the Temporary Site Access east of Harkness Avenue to a location that may be acceptable to the County for a long -range RURO access (approximately 880 feet east of Harkness Avenue) could provide this additional access. 3. Alternative D would provide a more effective secondary access alternative in terms of emergency response and circuitous travel issues relating to the western ( residential townhomes) portion of the site. Further discussion of this access alternative with Washington County is recommended since they will need to review, approve and permit this access alternative. 4. The number of driveways in close proximity to each other in the center of the horizontal curve on the internal street serving the Cottage Grove Neighborhood Center (Rygh PUD) site should be reduced from three to two in order to avoid an increased potential for vehicular conflict and the associated risk of collision in this area of the site. Should you have any questions or comments concerning these preliminary findings, please contact us. DRE /JB /smf psis -aAeml ns :mve ` xm. y��,�..,..,.,p H H W Z� W Z m ��T v PqoW °0 � az <ms xn m xi. sz�an>amu SNOA31NflS Fa L� awn SN3Pf m ¢�, 0 U C /) o on;. Zzo po Vl m / SN37NIN113 / SN3NNtl1, �ul `piN (J] m f•—j E �l g3H5 87LLL ° sp d W W c" 1 ., 13 z a sawed Sxr.rx�s,rnu.r 13 e G ° z` w x Est " F WH uw� W Fe� Ve. ti N N d m C _ . I �I I LZ. N; O: O; U ^ c W r wj a C! x= a V z Mi P4 0 Ri C7 H .a z 0 N 0 0 0 n 0 of 0,1 EE-+ H H W Z� W Z m ��T v PqoW °0 � az Fa oaa�z�a ¢�, 0 U C /) o on;. Zzo po Vl m H (J] m f•—j E �l � Q I— w a W W N m _ . I �I I LZ. N; O: O; U ^ c W r wj a C! x= a V z Mi P4 0 Ri C7 H .a z 0 N 0 0 0 n 0 of 0,1 n3� g ¢iF c- i3 O vi �i °o i nq I bLL 0 �; uPq I 1 av �. �o. N - - I. 3 0 a 0 .7 A a � v _ ul 01 e N c O O 0 - . ) n' 0 90 rot v bD U ZU NORIOOV I (IN003F SON�IHOIH (5'1 'I- IV Hu nos JnN)AV NOINIH n3� g ¢iF c- i3 O vi �i °o i nq I bLL 0 �; uPq I 1 av �. �o. N - - I. 3 0 a 0 .7 A a � v _ ul 01 011HOS-1 §� ^ ID 0 L) z ki u e � �� a Qi �� \ (D 0 LL - 0 C: co I Ao "I Nd w M a I EM fl. P 4 0, ww oi Ul OPL, r O O N � O m m 5 w m e `p 1 YLS LZ rc� t4Z b qZ N L a d m fY y (EL HVSO)aAy UOIUjH a - L9 L- T (EL HVSD)any uquiH BE Z94y v y BBV-d nno B6Z� N 3 iaa-0S > m � In b h 1 � m qq 9 wa G N LL y U � ro m N L 1 Q r ' N os L y O r c O m O e N Of J Ny4 N N i � u k Q ; m 1 LL � r 0� °.r f C m N O 4 v L o E m� zL U. c LZZ � t I c C ant's 4PX.H 5Z r 5L N p F L Q' N O 6 = � Y i C Li m g a Q N O O N C m � U N E `! i; L f f r O O N O O r S m m m o 8 nmm L '� L46. 6Z (£LHVSO) any uoiwH ? s6 (£L HVSO) any WJUIH - LLS- -) r n 6Lt-� omm � 5 a � m yo �n p LL e t b m I I 1 G N � 1 a P N U I S 1 n e e 6 'r d t N e U d U 'A5 9 m p' _ Li C a a r � N L a N L LL VZ u - any WWVCH S ` ry �bN 0 N < x m IL t IL IL N N 0 N L R } w en E A O L R V m LL V t 7 u u I Y I � V 1 1 R I L I F,. N Y c E CL 0 A c 0 N a E 0 L W 0 m m R O U 0 A Y L T 0 0 N f0 r O T m m m L4Z 9Z (8L HVSO) any COMH 881 (E1 HVSO) an W V WIH - Zvi Z6 k-) mrm 66Zy . 31aa-0S m N T N � G " j LL 1 I B } y 1 N N Q N v o I r � G ' � m N j N x Q S ti c a 1 1 9 \a aNS °n d S e u Q 6 � a N c L u Lzz anV SSWVeH p cc LE ANN 691 4 N Z N m U a s Q N N 0 N N m I 7 O L d fa _ 7 LL U) N V : N t Q. J d d L n 7 .1 d 7 J n n u a 3 � V A w A C . m O' I M 9 to C 'o Q c G O I t t O m 0 U v- O w LE T O O N O r u b m r m m m o B W N LSE nmm Ley i R L Z LL a (EL HVSO) antl UOF." T 961 (EL HVSD)antl uoLwH E� se mN 3 W4S O m m a N r <o � R m 4) r � 5� y LL O n N m 0 r i 0 l JJ O J U_ N N s Q s d O3 N � N � Q U_ C \6 � w 915 r i. Ib C 0 �I ¢ N 5 V N m O m N LV2 LL DZ Y" t Y m ' anV s 54VeH 8E (O W F i 0 N N 1 RI 1 N r � 1 ° a i N 1 N N m } W m 7 5 a v N V APPENDIX. "B" - LEVEL OF SERVICE (LOS) DESCRIPTIONS LEVEL OF SIGNALIZED INTERSECTION UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTION _ SERVICE AVERAGE CONTROL DELAY PER AVERAGE CONTROL DELAY PER DESCRIPTION OF TRAFFIC DESIGNATION VEHICLE (SECONDS) VEHICLE (SECONDS) CONDITIONS A Less than 10 Less than 10 Stable Flow - Low delays; at traffic signals most vehicles do not stop; acceptable LOS B 10 -20 10 -15 Stable Flow - Low delays; at traffic signals some vehicles must stop; acceptable LOS C 20 -35 15 -25 Stable Flow - Moderate delays; at traffic signals some cycle failures; many vehicles must stop; acceptable LOS D 35 -55 25 -35 Approaching Unstable Flow— Moderate delays; at traffic signals cycle failures become noticeable; many more vehicles must stop; limit of acceptable LOS E 55 -80 35 -50 Unstable Flow - Significant delays; at traffic signals cycle failures are frequent; most vehicles required to stop; unacceptable LOS F Over 80 Over 50 Forced Flow /Failure - Significant delays; at traffic signals many cycle failures occur; most or all vehicles must stop; unacceptable LOS