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MARKET STUDY
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel
US-10/US-61 CORRIDOR
COTTAGE GROVE, MINNESOTA
SUBMITTED TO:PR OPOSED
Ms. Gretchen Larson
City of Cottage Grove
12800 Ravine Parkway South
Cottage Grove, Minnesota 55016
+1 (651) 458-2830
PREPARED BY:
HVS Consulting & Valuation
Division of TS Worldwide, LLC
33972 North Oak Drive
Pequot Lakes, Minnesota 56472
+1 (303) 588-6558
November-2022
November 30, 2022
Ms. Gretchen Larson
City of Cottage Grove
12800 Ravine Parkway South
Cottage Grove, Minnesota 55016
Re: Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel
Cottage Grove, Minnesota
HVS Reference: 2022021420
Dear Ms. Larson:
Pursuant to your request, we herewith submit our market study pertaining to the
above-captioned property. We have inspected potential site locations and analyzed
the hotel market conditions in the Cottage Grove, Minnesota area, and the results of
our fieldwork and analysis are presented in this report. We have also made
recommendations for the best-suited hotel product for the market area.
We hereby certify that we have no undisclosed interest in the property, and our
employment and compensation are not contingent upon our findings. This study is
subject to the comments made throughout this report and to all assumptions and
limiting conditions set forth herein.
Sincerely,
TS Worldwide, LLC
Tanya J. Pierson, MAI, Senior Managing Director
TPierson@hvs.com, +1 (303) 588-6558
HVS
33972 North Oak Drive
Pequot Lakes, Minnesota 56472
+1 (303) 588-6558
+1 (516) 742-3059 FAX
www.hvs.com
Table of Contents
SECTION TITLE PAGE
1. Executive Summary 1
2. Description of the Sites and Neighborhood 14
3. Market Area Analysis 24
4. Supply and Demand Analysis 45
5. Description of the Proposed Improvements 79
6. Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate 82
7. Projection of Income and Expense 91
8. Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions 110
Addenda
Qualifications
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 1
1. Executive Summary
The objective of the market study is to examine the current and potential demand
for lodging accommodations, as well as the existing and proposed supply in Cottage
Grove and surrounding suburbs.
This market study report is being prepared for the City of Cottage Grove. The
findings of this market study are anticipated to be used to determine if the City of
Cottage Grove hotel market has sufficient depth and need to support a new hotel.
The City of Cottage Grove is looking into the development of a hotel and multiple
site locations are available for such development; however, a specific site had not
been chosen at the time of our report. We have analyzed the locations of the sites in
regard to their proximity to demand generators, retail establishments, and
entertainment venues. Based on interviews conducted with demand generators and
our evaluation of the market performance, it is our recommendation that the
proposed subject hotel operate as a midscale or upper-midscale limited-service
property, such as a Fairfield by Marriott, Hampton by Hilton, Holiday Inn Express,
or comparable brand. Given the existence of extended-stay demand in the market,
there is the potential for a dual branding of the subject hotel to include some
extended-stay rooms in the available inventory. Possible dual-branded hotel
combinations include Fairfield/TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Tru/Home2 Suites
by Hilton, and Avid/Candlewood Suites.
For the purpose of this analysis, we have assumed that the property would open on
May 1, 2025 and feature 90 rooms, a breakfast dining area, meeting space for at
least 50 people, an indoor pool and whirlpool, a fitness room, a lobby workstation,
a market pantry, and a guest laundry room. The hotel would also feature all
necessary back-of-the-house space.
Objective of the
Market Study
Intended Use and
Audience of the
Appraisal
Subject of the Market
Study
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 2
SITE LOCATIONS CONSIDERED
Location Strengths Weaknesses
80th Street Exit
(Gateway North)
Near several retail and restaurant outlets;
close to I-494
Older retail in area requiring
redevelopment
Jamaica Avenue Exit Proximate to business park, with
numerous fast food and shopping venues
Lack of full-service restaurants; limited
sites close to the highway
Keats Avenue Exit
(Cottage View)
Proximity to business park, Ravine
Regional Park, event centers
Lack of support businesses nearby
(retail, restaurants) as it is undeveloped
The effective date of the report is November 30, 2022. The subject sites were
inspected by Tanya J. Pierson, MAI on September 12, 2022. In addition to the
inspection, Tanya J. Pierson, MAI participated in the research for this assignment
and assisted in the report’s preparation.
Pertinent Dates
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 3
The hospitality industry has been, and continues to be, affected by a variety of
external factors that influence both the lodging and the investment markets. The
following paragraphs outline the global factors that are the most impactful to the
lodging industry as of the effective date of this report.
The COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020 and had a si gnificant impact
throughout the world and on the respective economies. The onset of the pandemic
resulted in decreased business activity, causing widespread economic hardships,
including increases in unemployment. The hospitality industry was severely
affected, as travel declined sharply and as restrictions on group sizes resulted in the
cancellations of meetings, conventions, and events. The depth and duration of this
impact was influenced by the course of the pandemic and the nature and extent of
restrictions on business and travel activity; the period of greatest impact was 2020.
With the availability of vaccines and lifting of restrictions, conditions generally
improved in 2021, although the Omicron variant slowed the recovery in the latter
part of the year. Currently, the prevailing market outlook is that the peak impact of
the pandemic on the travel industry is behind us. While group meetings and events
have resumed, business travel remains below pre-pandemic levels given that office
occupancy and work-related travel have been affected by more widespread remote
work options. Travel patterns have shifted to include more leisure demand,
anticipated to comprise a greater proportion of lodging demand in the future. While
ADR and RevPAR have passed 2019 levels in most markets, our research reflects a
general expectation that lagging occupancy levels will recover by 2024; the timing
and pace of recovery for individual markets will vary based on market-specific
characteristics and conditions.
Exacerbated by rising oil and gas prices in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,
the inflationary trends that first emerged during the pandemic have continued.
Driven by supply-chain disruptions and pent-up consumer demand during the
pandemic, prices for most goods and services increased substantially. The Federal
Reserve is combating inflation through successive interest rate hikes (five thus far
this year), with some initial success, as the pace of inflation and job growth have
decelerated. However, further increases are possible and expected through the first
part of 2023. The risk of a recession has emerged as a concern, as well, affecting the
stock market, debt availability, and consumer confidence. The ongoing international
conflicts have also contributed to economic uncertainty, continued supply
disruptions, and increased energy costs. As a result, the near-term outlook is
unclear, and investors are taking an increasingly cautious approach, which, when
combined with the recent increases in interest rates, has put downward pressure
on real estate values. As of the fourth quarter of 2022, inflation levels are anticipated
to remain elevated in the near term, albeit below peak levels. Over the longer term,
inflation is expected to moderate back to more normalized levels as the economy
moves through the current cycle.
Global Considerations
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 4
By its nature, the hospitality industry is a major employer and thus heavily reliant
on the cost and availability of labor. Following the onset of the pandemic, roughly
33.0% of jobs were lost across the hotel industry between February 2020 and
January 2021, according to Tourism Economics. While many of these jobs have
returned, the workforce has not kept pace with the increased employment
opportunities, and many hotels continue to report labor shortages. The industry has
responded to this issue through wage increases, additional benefits, flexible
schedules, and the implementation of cross-training and job sharing, as well as
increased use of technology. In response to the pandemic, many hotels revised,
downsized, or eliminated some services, particularly in the food and beverage
(F&B) and housekeeping departments. Given the ongoing labor shortages,
operators are retaining some aspects of these solutions, which should somewhat
offset rising labor costs. Nevertheless, notable increases in labor costs are
anticipated to continue in the near term.
In preparing this report, we have considered the impact of these factors on the
lodging and investment markets to the best of our ability, inclusive of the subject of
this report. However, our analysis only considers what is known at the time of the
effective date of the report, and there is a high degree of uncertainty currently
influencing the market and the economy.
Details pertaining to management terms were not yet determined at the time of this
report; however, we assume that the proposed hotel will be managed by a
professional hotel-operating company, with fees deducted at rates consistent with
current market standards. Our projections reflect a total management fee of 3.0%
of total revenues.
We recommend that the proposed subject property operate as a midscale or upper-
midscale limited-service hotel. For the purpose of this report, we have assumed that
the property would be affiliated with a nationally recognized hotel brand, such as a
Fairfield by Marriott, Hampton by Hilton, Holiday Inn Express, or another
comparable limited-service brand. However, a specific franchise affiliation was not
finalized at the time of this study. We have reviewed the royalty and marketing
assessments of the referenced brands, and utilized an average level for the purpose
of this analysis as shown in the following table.
Management and
Franchise Assumptions
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 5
FIGURE 1-1 FRANCHISE FEES
Brand
Fairfield 5.5%2.5%8.0%
Hampton Inn & Suites 6.0%4.0%10.0%
Holiday Inn Express 6.0%3.0%9.0%
TownePlace Suites 5.5%2.0%7.5%
Home2 Suites 5.0%3.5%8.5%
Tru by Hilton 5.0%4.0%9.0%
Candlewood Suites 5.0%2.5%7.5%
Avid 5.0%3.0%8.0%
Average 5.4%3.1%8.4%
Median 5.3%3.0%8.3%
Minimum 5.0%2.0%7.5%
Maximum 6.0%4.0%10.0%
Fees Selected 5.5%3.0%8.5%
Total FeeRoyalty Fee Marketing Fee
During the illustrated historical period, both occupancy and ADR generally followed
a strengthening trend through 2016. This improvement in market conditions was
driven largely by growth in the local economy and retail and commercial
development in Woodbury. Occupancy and ADR began to soften in 2017 as new
hotels were absorbed by the market. Supply increased by 88.0% between 2015 and
2018 with the opening of the Residence Inn by Marriott and La Quinta Inn & Suites
Woodbury in late 2016, the Hampton Inn & Suites Oakdale in late 2017, and the
Courtyard by Marriott in Woodbury in January 2018. While occupancy declined to
the high 60s in 2018, average rate remained fairly stable due to Super Bowl LII,
which was held in Minneapolis. Following the loss of this one-time demand source,
RevPAR fell by 10.0% in 2019. In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic began to
affect the local market, similar to the rest of the nation, resulting in stay-at-home
orders, group cancellations, and decreased business travel; thus, the 2020 data
illustrate a significant decline in occupancy and a roughly $21 loss in ADR. By year-
end 2021, occupancy and ADR had recovered a substantial portion of their 2020
losses, gaining traction in the latter half of the year after the wide distribution of
vaccines. The year-to-date data through August 2022 reflect continued recovery,
with both occupancy and ADR nearing the levels achieved in 2019. Given the return
of both commercial and leisure travel as well as the ongoing development in both
Woodbury and Cottage Grove, the outlook for the market is optimistic.
Summary of Hotel
Market Trends
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 6
The following table provides a historical perspective on the supply and demand
trends for a selected set of hotels, as provided by STR.
FIGURE 1-2 HISTORICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS
Year
Average Daily
Room Count
Available
Room Nights Change
Occupied
Room Nights Change Occupancy
Average
Rate Change RevPAR Change
2009 507 185,055 — 95,505 — 51.6 %$96.36 — $49.73 —
2010 507 185,055 0.0 %116,297 21.8 %62.8 96.51 0.2 %60.65 22.0 %
2011 507 185,055 0.0 124,310 6.9 67.2 101.15 4.8 67.95 12.0
2012 507 185,055 0.0 124,112 (0.2)67.1 106.10 4.9 71.16 4.7
2013 506 184,721 (0.2)129,720 4.5 70.2 112.46 6.0 78.98 11.0
2014 505 184,506 (0.1)131,739 1.6 71.4 118.09 5.0 84.32 6.8
2015 505 184,325 (0.1)136,575 3.7 74.1 120.29 1.9 89.13 5.7
2016 562 205,065 11.3 148,497 8.7 72.4 125.62 4.4 90.97 2.1
2017 746 272,185 32.7 196,385 32.2 72.2 121.18 (3.5)87.43 (3.9)
2018 949 346,385 27.3 237,588 21.0 68.6 123.02 1.5 84.38 (3.5)
2019 949 346,385 0.0 230,585 (2.9)66.6 113.89 (7.4)75.82 (10.1)
2020 949 346,385 0.0 126,181 (45.3)36.4 92.74 (18.6)33.78 (55.4)
2021 949 346,385 0.0 190,974 51.3 55.1 101.33 9.3 55.87 65.4
Year-to-Date Through August
2019 949 230,607 — 159,344 — 69.1 %$114.48 — $79.10 —
2020 949 230,607 0.0 %85,816 (46.1)%37.2 94.38 (17.6)%35.12 (55.6)%
2021 918 223,047 (3.3)126,768 47.7 56.8 98.67 4.5 56.08 59.7
2022 949 230,607 3.4 157,954 24.6 68.5 112.05 13.6 76.75 36.9
Average Annual Compounded Change:
2009 – 2019 6.5 %9.2 %1.7 %4.3 %
2009 – 2020 5.9 2.6 (0.3)(3.5)
Competitive
Hotels Included in Sample Class Status
Hampton by Hilton Inn Minneapolis/St Paul-Woodbury Upper Midscale Class Secondary 63 May 2021 Jan 1996
Holiday Inn Express & Suites St Paul Woodbury Upper Midscale Class Secondary 100 Aug 1997 Aug 1997
Country Inn & Suites Cottage Grove Upper Midscale Class Primary 76 Jul 2002 Jul 2002
Hilton Garden Inn St Paul Oakdale Upscale Class Secondary 116 Feb 2005 Feb 2005
Sheraton Hotel St Paul Woodbury Upper Upscale Class Secondary 150 Jul 2008 Jul 2008
Residence Inn St Paul Woodbury Upscale Class Secondary 116 Sep 2016 Sep 2016
La Quinta Inns & Suites St Paul - Woodbury Upper Midscale Class Secondary 108 Nov 2016 Nov 2016
Hampton by Hilton Inn & Suites St Paul Oakdale/Woodbury Upper Midscale Class Secondary 100 Nov 2017 Nov 2017
Courtyard St Paul Woodbury Upscale Class Secondary 120 Jan 2018 Jan 2018
Total 949
Source: STR
Number
of Rooms
Year
Opened
Year
Affiliated
The following tables reflect our estimates of operating data for hotels on an
individual basis. These trends are presented in detail in the Supply and Demand
Analysis chapter of this report.
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 7
FIGURE 1-3 PRIMARY COMPETITORS – OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Est. Segmentation Estimated 2019 Estimated 2021
Property Occ.RevPAR RevPAR
Occupancy
Penetration
Yield
Penetration
Country Inn & Suites By Carlson
Cottage Grove 76 40 %10 %50 %76 60 - 65 %$95 - $100 $55 - $60 76 65 - 70 %$95 - $100 $60 - $65 110 - 120 %110 - 120 %
Wakota Inn & Suites 31 10 0 90 31 45 - 50 75 - 80 35 - 40 31 45 - 50 70 - 75 35 - 40 85 - 90 60 - 65
Sub-Totals/Averages 107 33 %8 %60 %107 59.2 %$90.11 $53.37 107 61.4 %$91.39 $56 111 %101.7 %
Secondary Competitors 873 63 %18 %19 %655 66.9 %$115.55 $77.31 655 54.1 %$101.67 $55 98 %99.7 %
Totals/Averages 980 59 %17 %24 %762 65.8 %$112.33 $73.95 762 55.1 %$100.06 $55 100 %100.0 %
* Specific occupancy and average rate data were utilized in our analysis, but are presented in ranges in the above table for the purposes of confidentiality.
Weighted
Annual
Room
Count
Number
of Rooms Average Rate Occ.
Weighted
Annual
Room
Count Average RateCommercialGroupLeisure
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 8
FIGURE 1-4 SECONDARY COMPETITORS – OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Est. Segmentation Estimated 2019 Estimated 2021
Property
Number of
Rooms Occ.
Average
Rate RevPAR Occ.
Average
Rate RevPAR
Sheraton Saint Paul Woodbury 150 55 %30 %15 %75 %113 65 - 70 %$115 - $120 $75 - $80 113 50 - 55 %$95 - $100 $50 - $55
Courtyard by Marriott Saint Paul Woodbury 120 65 20 15 75 90 60 - 65 120 - 125 75 - 80 90 55 - 60 110 - 115 60 - 65
Residence Inn by Marriott Saint Paul
Woodbury 116 75 10 15 75 87 75 - 80 130 - 140 100 - 105 87 75 - 80 120 - 125 95 - 100
Hampton by Hilton Minneapolis Saint Paul
Woodbury 63 70 10 20 75 47 65 - 70 110 - 115 75 - 80 47 25 - 30 95 - 100 25 - 30
Hilton Garden Inn Saint Paul Oakdale 116 60 30 10 75 87 65 - 70 115 - 120 75 - 80 87 30 - 35 95 - 100 30 - 35
Hampton by Hilton Saint Paul Oakdale
Woodbury 100 60 10 30 75 75 60 - 65 105 - 110 65 - 70 75 50 - 55 95 - 100 50 - 55
La Quinta Inn & Suites Saint Paul Woodbury 108 60 10 30 75 81 65 - 70 95 - 100 65 - 70 81 55 - 60 85 - 90 50 - 55
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Saint Paul
Woodbury 100 65 15 20 75 75 60 - 65 105 - 110 65 - 70 75 55 - 60 90 - 95 50 - 55
Totals/Averages 873 63 %18 %19 %75 %655 66.9 %$115.55 $77.31 655 54.1 %$101.67 $55.00
* Specific occupancy and average rate data was utilized in our analysis, but is presented in ranges in the above table for the purposes of confidentiality.
Total
Competitive
Level
Weighted
Annual
Room
Count
Weighted
Annual
Room
CountLeisureCommercialGroup
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 9
Based on our analysis presented in the Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
chapter, we have chosen to use a stabilized occupancy level of 70% and a base-year
rate position of for the proposed subject hotel. The following table reflects a
summary of our proposed subject hotel occupancy and average rate (ADR)
projections.
FIGURE 1-5 FORECAST OF OCCUPANCY AND AVERAGE RATE
Year
2025/26 66 %$129.93 5.0 %$123.43
2026/27 69 133.83 0.0 133.83
2027/28 70 137.84 0.0 137.84
Occupancy
Average Rate
Before Discount Discount
Average Rate
After Discount
Our positioning of each revenue and expense level is supported by comparable
operations or trends specific to this market. Our forecast of income and expense is
presented in the following table.
Summary of Forecast
Occupancy and
Average Rate
Summary of Forecast
Income and Expense
Statement
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 10
FIGURE 1-6 DETAILED FORECAST OF INCOME AND EXPENSE
2025/26 Begins May 2026/27 Stabilized 2028/29 2029/30
Number of Rooms:90 90 90 90 90
Occupancy:66%69%70%70%70%
Average Rate:$123.43 $133.83 $137.84 $141.98 $146.24
RevPAR:$81.47 $92.34 $96.49 $99.38 $102.37
Days Open:365 365 365 365 365
Occupied Rooms:21,681 %Gross PAR POR 22,667 %Gross PAR POR 22,995 %Gross PAR POR 22,995 %Gross PAR POR 22,995 %Gross PAR POR
OPERATING REVENUE
Rooms $2,676 98.2 %$29,733 $123.43 $3,033 98.3 %$33,700 $133.81 $3,170 98.3 %$35,222 $137.86 $3,265 98.3 %$36,278 $141.99 $3,363 98.3 %$37,367 $146.25
Other Operated Departments 38 1.4 423 1.75 42 1.4 464 1.84 43 1.3 480 1.88 45 1.3 495 1.94 46 1.3 509 1.99
Miscellaneous Income 11 0.4 119 0.49 11 0.4 124 0.49 12 0.4 128 0.50 12 0.4 132 0.52 12 0.4 136 0.53
Total Operating Revenues 2,725 100.0 30,275 125.67 3,086 100.0 34,288 136.14 3,225 100.0 35,831 140.24 3,321 100.0 36,904 144.44 3,421 100.0 38,012 148.77
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES *
Rooms 715 26.7 7,947 32.99 750 24.7 8,329 33.07 777 24.5 8,629 33.77 800 24.5 8,887 34.78 824 24.5 9,154 35.83
Other Operated Departments 20 52.5 222 0.92 21 50.2 233 0.92 22 50.0 240 0.94 22 50.0 247 0.97 23 50.0 255 1.00
Total Expenses 735 27.0 8,169 33.91 771 25.0 8,562 34.00 798 24.8 8,869 34.71 822 24.8 9,135 35.75 847 24.8 9,409 36.83
DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 1,989 73.0 22,105 91.76 2,315 75.0 25,726 102.15 2,427 75.2 26,962 105.53 2,499 75.2 27,770 108.69 2,574 75.2 28,603 111.95
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES
Administrative & General 259 9.5 2,876 11.94 273 8.8 3,031 12.03 282 8.7 3,133 12.26 290 8.7 3,227 12.63 299 8.7 3,323 13.01
Info & Telecom Systems 41 1.5 460 1.91 44 1.4 485 1.93 45 1.4 501 1.96 46 1.4 516 2.02 48 1.4 532 2.08
Marketing 142 5.2 1,582 6.57 136 4.4 1,515 6.02 141 4.4 1,566 6.13 145 4.4 1,613 6.31 150 4.4 1,662 6.50
Franchise Fee 227 8.3 2,527 10.49 258 8.4 2,865 11.37 269 8.4 2,994 11.72 278 8.4 3,084 12.07 286 8.4 3,176 12.43
Prop. Operations & Maint.128 4.7 1,421 5.90 142 4.6 1,576 6.26 147 4.5 1,629 6.38 151 4.5 1,678 6.57 156 4.5 1,728 6.76
Utilities 129 4.8 1,438 5.97 136 4.4 1,515 6.02 141 4.4 1,566 6.13 145 4.4 1,613 6.31 150 4.4 1,662 6.50
Total Expenses 927 34.0 10,305 42.78 989 32.0 10,986 43.62 1,025 31.8 11,390 44.58 1,056 31.8 11,731 45.91 1,087 31.8 12,083 47.29
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 1,062 39.0 11,800 48.98 1,327 43.0 14,739 58.52 1,402 43.4 15,572 60.95 1,443 43.4 16,039 62.77 1,487 43.4 16,520 64.66
Management Fee 82 3.0 908 3.77 93 3.0 1,029 4.08 97 3.0 1,075 4.21 100 3.0 1,107 4.33 103 3.0 1,140 4.46
INCOME BEFORE NON-OPR. INC. & EXP.980 36.0 10,892 45.21 1,234 40.0 13,711 54.44 1,305 40.4 14,497 56.74 1,344 40.4 14,931 58.44 1,384 40.4 15,380 60.19
NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSE
Property Taxes 121 4.4 1,344 5.58 249 8.1 2,769 10.99 257 8.0 2,852 11.16 264 8.0 2,937 11.50 272 8.0 3,025 11.84
Insurance 43 1.6 472 1.96 44 1.4 487 1.93 45 1.4 501 1.96 46 1.4 516 2.02 48 1.4 532 2.08
Total Expenses 163 6.0 1,816 7.54 293 9.5 3,255 12.93 302 9.4 3,353 13.12 311 9.4 3,453 13.52 320 9.4 3,557 13.92
EBITDA 817 30.0 9,076 37.67 941 30.5 10,456 41.52 1,003 31.0 11,145 43.62 1,033 31.0 11,478 44.92 1,064 31.0 11,823 46.27
Reserve for Replacement 54 2.0 605 2.51 93 3.0 1,029 4.08 129 4.0 1,433 5.61 133 4.0 1,476 5.78 137 4.0 1,520 5.95
EBITDA LESS RESERVE $762 28.0 %$8,470 $35.16 $848 27.5 %$9,427 $37.43 $874 27.0 %$9,711 $38.01 $900 27.0 %$10,002 $39.15 $927 27.0 %$10,302 $40.32
*Departmental expenses are expressed as a percentage of departmental revenues.
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 11
FIGURE 1-7 TEN-YEAR FORECAST OF INCOME AND EXPENSE
2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35
Number of Rooms:90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Occupied Rooms:21,681 22,667 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995
Occupancy:66%69%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%
Average Rate:$123.43 % of $133.83 % of $137.84 % of $141.98 % of $146.24 % of $150.62 % of $155.14 % of $159.80 % of $164.59 % of $169.53
RevPAR:$81.47 Gross $92.34 Gross $96.49 Gross $99.38 Gross $102.37 Gross $105.44 Gross $108.60 Gross $111.86 Gross $115.21 Gross $118.67
OPERATING REVENUE
Rooms $2,676 98.2 %$3,033 98.3 %$3,170 98.3 %$3,265 98.3 %$3,363 98.3 %$3,464 98.3 %$3,568 98.3 %$3,675 98.3 %$3,785 98.3 %$3,898 98.3 %
Other Operated Departments 38 1.4 42 1.4 43 1.3 45 1.3 46 1.3 47 1.3 49 1.3 50 1.3 52 1.3 53 1.3
Miscellaneous Income 11 0.4 11 0.4 12 0.4 12 0.4 12 0.4 13 0.4 13 0.4 13 0.4 14 0.4 14 0.4
Total Operating Revenues 2,725 100.0 3,086 100.0 3,225 100.0 3,321 100.0 3,421 100.0 3,524 100.0 3,630 100.0 3,738 100.0 3,850 100.0 3,965 100.0
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES *
Rooms 715 26.7 750 24.7 777 24.5 800 24.5 824 24.5 849 24.5 874 24.5 900 24.5 927 24.5 955 24.5
Other Operated Departments 20 52.5 21 50.2 22 50.0 22 50.0 23 50.0 24 50.0 24 50.0 25 50.0 26 50.0 27 50.0
Total Expenses 735 27.0 771 25.0 798 24.8 822 24.8 847 24.8 872 24.8 898 24.8 925 24.8 953 24.8 982 24.8
DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 1,989 73.0 2,315 75.0 2,427 75.2 2,499 75.2 2,574 75.2 2,652 75.2 2,731 75.2 2,813 75.2 2,897 75.2 2,984 75.2
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES
Administrative & General 259 9.5 273 8.8 282 8.7 290 8.7 299 8.7 308 8.7 317 8.7 327 8.7 337 8.7 347 8.7
Info & Telecom Systems 41 1.5 44 1.4 45 1.4 46 1.4 48 1.4 49 1.4 51 1.4 52 1.4 54 1.4 55 1.4
Marketing 142 5.2 136 4.4 141 4.4 145 4.4 150 4.4 154 4.4 159 4.4 163 4.4 168 4.4 173 4.4
Franchise Fee 227 8.3 258 8.4 269 8.4 278 8.4 286 8.4 294 8.4 303 8.4 312 8.4 322 8.4 331 8.4
Prop. Operations & Maint.128 4.7 142 4.6 147 4.5 151 4.5 156 4.5 160 4.5 165 4.5 170 4.5 175 4.5 180 4.5
Utilities 129 4.8 136 4.4 141 4.4 145 4.4 150 4.4 154 4.4 159 4.4 163 4.4 168 4.4 173 4.4
Total Expenses 927 34.0 989 32.0 1,025 31.8 1,056 31.8 1,087 31.8 1,120 31.8 1,154 31.8 1,188 31.8 1,224 31.8 1,261 31.8
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 1,062 39.0 1,327 43.0 1,402 43.4 1,443 43.4 1,487 43.4 1,532 43.4 1,578 43.4 1,625 43.4 1,673 43.4 1,723 43.4
Management Fee 82 3.0 93 3.0 97 3.0 100 3.0 103 3.0 106 3.0 109 3.0 112 3.0 116 3.0 119 3.0
INCOME BEFORE NON-OPR. INC. & EXP.980 36.0 1,234 40.0 1,305 40.4 1,344 40.4 1,384 40.4 1,426 40.4 1,469 40.4 1,513 40.4 1,558 40.4 1,604 40.4
NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSE
Property Taxes 121 4.4 249 8.1 257 8.0 264 8.0 272 8.0 280 8.0 289 8.0 298 8.0 306 8.0 316 8.0
Insurance 43 1.6 44 1.4 45 1.4 46 1.4 48 1.4 49 1.4 51 1.4 52 1.4 54 1.4 55 1.4
Total Expenses 163 6.0 293 9.5 302 9.4 311 9.4 320 9.4 330 9.4 340 9.4 350 9.4 360 9.4 371 9.4
EBITDA 817 30.0 941 30.5 1,003 31.0 1,033 31.0 1,064 31.0 1,096 31.0 1,129 31.0 1,163 31.0 1,198 31.0 1,233 31.0
Reserve for Replacement 54 2.0 93 3.0 129 4.0 133 4.0 137 4.0 141 4.0 145 4.0 150 4.0 154 4.0 159 4.0
EBITDA LESS RESERVE $762 28.0 %$848 27.5 %$874 27.0 %$900 27.0 %$927 27.0 %$955 27.0 %$984 27.0 %$1,013 27.0 %$1,044 27.0 %$1,074 27.0 %
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% of
Gross
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 12
As illustrated, the hotel is expected to stabilize at a profitable level. Please refer to
the Forecast of Income and Expense chapter of our report for a detailed explanation
of the methodology used in deriving this forecast.
The methodology used to develop this study is based on the market research and
valuation techniques set forth in the textbooks authored by Hospitality Valuation
Services for the American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers and the Appraisal
Institute, entitled The Valuation of Hotels and Motels,1 Hotels, Motels and Restaurants:
Valuations and Market Studies,2 The Computerized Income Approach to Hotel/Motel
Market Studies and Valuations,3 Hotels and Motels: A Guide to Market Analysis,
Investment Analysis, and Valuations,4 and Hotels and Motels – Valuations and Market
Studies.5
1. All information was collected and analyzed by the staff of TS Worldwide,
LLC. Information was supplied by the client and/or the property’s
development team.
2. The subject sites have been evaluated from the viewpoint of physical utility
for the future operation of a hotel, as well as access, visibility, and other
relevant factors.
3. The surrounding economic environment, on both an area and neighborhood
level, has been reviewed to identify specific hostelry-related economic and
demographic trends that may have an impact on future demand for hotels.
4. Dividing the market for hotel accommodations into individual segments
defines specific market characteristics for the types of travelers expected to
utilize the area's hotels. The factors investigated include purpose of visit,
average length of stay, facilities and amenities required, seasonality, daily
demand fluctuations, and price sensitivity.
5. An analysis of existing and proposed competition provides an indication of
the current accommodated demand, along with market penetration and the
1 Stephen Rushmore, The Valuation of Hotels and Motels. (Chicago: American Institute of
Real Estate Appraisers, 1978).
2 Stephen Rushmore, Hotels, Motels and Restaurants: Valuations and Market Studies.
(Chicago: American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, 1983).
3 Stephen Rushmore, The Computerized Income Approach to Hotel/Motel Market Studies and
Valuations. (Chicago: American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers, 1990).
4 Stephen Rushmore, Hotels and Motels: A Guide to Market Analysis, Investment Analysis,
and Valuations (Chicago: Appraisal Institute, 1992).
5 Stephen Rushmore and Erich Baum, Hotels and Motels – Valuations and Market Studies.
(Chicago: Appraisal Institute, 2001).
Scope of Work
November-2022 Executive Summary
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 13
degree of competitiveness. Unless noted otherwise, we have inspected the
competitive lodging facilities summarized in this report.
6. Documentation for an occupancy and ADR projection is derived utilizing the
build-up approach based on an analysis of lodging activity.
7. A detailed projection of income and expense made in accordance with the
Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI) sets forth the
anticipated economic benefits of the proposed subject property.
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 14
2. Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
The suitability of the land for the operation of a lodging facility is an important
consideration affecting the economic viability of a property and its ultimate
marketability. Factors such as size, topography, access, visibility, and the availability
of utilities have a direct impact on the desirability of a particular site.
No specific site has been chosen for the proposed subject hotel; therefore, we have
considered three general areas within Cottage Grove for the location of the
proposed hotel. The first location is near the 80th Street interchange of U.S. Highway
10/61, which is proximate to Hy-Vee Grocery and the Wakota Inn & Suites. The
second location is near the Jamaica Avenue interchange of U.S. Highway 10/61, near
Cub Foods and Target. The third location is in the northeast quadrant of the
interchange of Keats Avenue and U.S. Highway 10/61. While other potential sites
exist within Cottage Grove city limits, the access, visibility, and proximity to
complimentary businesses of these three areas are beneficial for a limited-service
lodging facility.
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 15
LOCATION MAP
Based on current developments at each site, we would recommend a site at the 80th
Street Exit given the prevalence of full-service and fast-food restaurants that many
of the demand generators requested. While the Jamaica Exit area enjoys strong
visibility and accessibility, it lacks full-service dine-in restaurants that families and
business travelers alike prefer. The location at Keats Avenue is currently
undeveloped and does not offer any ancillary options for hotel guests. If this area
were to be developed with restaurants and retail in conjunction with or prior to the
hotel development, this location would be favorable given its proximity to the event
venues, the industrial park, and Ravine Regional Park.
While a specific site has not been determined, we assume the shape and topography
will permit efficient use of the site for the building and other improvements, as well
as ingress and egress. It is expected that the future site will be developed fully with
Topography and
Site Utility
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 16
building and site improvements, thus contributing to the overall profitability of the
hotel.
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH – 80TH STREET EXIT (GATEWAY NORTH)
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 17
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH – JAMAICA AVENUE EXIT
AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH – KEATS AVENUE EXIT (COTTAGE VIEW)
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 18
It is important to analyze the site with respect to regional and local transportation
routes and demand generators, including ease of access. The subject site is readily
accessible to a variety of local and county roads, as well as state and interstate
highways.
MAP OF ACCESS ROUTES
Primary regional access through the area is provided by north/south Interstate 35,
which extends to such cities as Des Moines, Iowa, to the south and Duluth to the
north. Interstate 35 divides into two thoroughfares (I-35 West and I-35 East) that
segment the flow of traffic to Minneapolis and St. Paul, respectively. East/west
Interstate 94 is another major highway, which provides access to Fargo, North
Dakota, to the west and Eau Claire, Wisconsin, to the east. Local and regional routes
include branches of Interstate 94, such as Interstates 394, 494, and 694.
Access and Visibility
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 19
The proposed subject hotel will be located in Cottage Grove and will be served by
the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, which is located approximately
twelve miles to the northwest of Cottage Grove.
The neighborhood surrounding a lodging facility often has an impact on a hotel's
status, image, class, style of operation, and sometimes its ability to attract and
properly serve a particular market segment. This section of the report investigates
the subject neighborhood and evaluates any pertinent location factors that could
affect its future occupancy, average rate, and overall profitability.
Cottage Grove is a southeastern suburban edge community within the Minneapolis-
St. Paul metropolitan area, located along the U.S. Highway 10/61 corridor, just south
of Interstate 494 and northwest of the confluence of the Mississippi and St. Croix
rivers.
Because a specific site has not been finalized, the zoning could not be confirmed.
However, the general area along two of the main exits in Cottage Grove is zoned
Mixed Use. Our projections assume that the specific site would be approved for hotel
use. We assume that all necessary permits and approvals will be secured (including
the appropriate liquor license if applicable) and that the subject property will be
constructed in accordance with local zoning ordinances, building codes, and all
other applicable regulations.
Airport Access
City of Cottage Grove
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 20
ZONING MAP
The subject site will reportedly be served by all necessary utilities.
Geological and soil reports were not provided to us or made available for our review
during the preparation of this report. We are not qualified to evaluate soil conditions
other than by a visual inspection of the surface; no extraordinary conditions were
apparent at any of the locations.
We were not informed of any site-specific nuisances or hazards in the three
locations, and there were no visible signs of toxic ground contaminants at the time
of our inspection. Because we are not experts in this field, we do not warrant the
absence of hazardous waste and urge the reader to obtain an independent analysis
of these factors.
Utilities
Soil and
Subsoil Conditions
Nuisances
and Hazards
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 21
The City of Cottage Grove, as a primary focus within their 2040 Comprehensive Plan,
has been very proactive in attracting industrial development, with ongoing
residential projects to support employment growth in the market. The following
charts illustrate the existing land use allocations in 2020 and what is planned for
2040.
LAND USE – 2020
Land Use – Current and
Future Expectations
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 22
LAND USE – 2040
A significant portion of the existing agriculture land is expected to be developed into
residential and industrial uses. The following graphic illustrates the primary areas
within Cottage Grove that are the focus of development.
November-2022 Description of the Sites and Neighborhood
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 23
LAND USE CHANGE AREAS
, and
We have analyzed the issues of size, topography, access, visibility, and the
availability of utilities. The subject site should be well suited for future hotel use,
with acceptable access, visibility, and topography for an effective operation.
Conclusion
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 24
3. Market Area Analysis
The economic vitality of the market area and neighborhood surrounding the subject
site is an important consideration in forecasting lodging demand and future income
potential. Economic and demographic trends that reflect the amount of visitation
provide a basis from which to project lodging demand. The purpose of the market
area analysis is to review available economic and demographic data to determine
whether the local market will undergo economic growth, stabilize, or decline. In
addition to predicting the direction of the economy, the rate of change must be
quantified. These trends are then correlated based on their propensity to reflect
variations in lodging demand, with the objective of forecasting the amount of
growth or decline in visitation by individual market segment (e.g., commercial,
meeting and group, and leisure).
The market area for a lodging facility is the geographical region where the sources
of demand and the competitive supply are located. The subject site is located in the
city of Cottage Grove, the county of Washington, and the state of Minnesota. The
Minneapolis–St. Paul metropolitan area is considered a regional capital, linking the
upper Midwestern United States to other national and international centers, and is
well known for its robust economy, a highly educated workforce, and an
outstanding quality of life. Over 15 Fortune 500 industrial and service companies
are headquartered here, including Ecolab, Target Corporation, 3M, Honeywell,
General Mills, and Land O’Lakes. In addition, Minneapolis –St. Paul maintains one of
the largest concentrations of high-technology businesses in the nation. The city of
Cottage Grove is a southeastern suburb of the Minneapolis–St. Paul metro area.
The subject property’s market area can be defined by its Combined Statistical Area
(CSA): Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI. The CSA represents adjacent metropolitan and
micropolitan statistical areas that have a moderate degree of employment
interchange. Micropolitan statistical areas represent urban areas in the United
States based around a core city or town with a population of 10,000 to 49,999; the
MSA requires the presence of a core city of at least 50,000 people and a total
population of at least 100,000 (75,000 in New England). The following exhibit
illustrates the market area.
Market Area Definition
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 25
MAP OF MARKET AREA
A primary source of economic and demographic statistics used in this analysis is the
Complete Economic and Demographic Data Source published by Woods & Poole
Economics, Inc.—a well-regarded forecasting service based in Washington, D.C.
Using a database containing more than 900 variables for each county in the nation,
Woods & Poole employs a sophisticated regional model to forecast economic and
demographic trends. Historical statistics are based on census data and information
published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Projections are formulated by
Woods & Poole, and all dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation, thus
reflecting real change.
These data are summarized in the following table.
Economic and
Demographic Review
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 26
FIGURE 3-1 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DATA SUMMARY
Average Annual
Compounded Change
2010 2019 2021 2026 2010-19 2019-21 2021-26
Resident Population (Thousands)
Washington County 238.9 262.4 267.6 282.1 1.0 %1.0 %1.1 %
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 3,340.0 3,640.0 3,691.2 3,838.9 1.0 0.7 0.8
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA 3,712.8 4,027.9 4,082.8 4,241.5 0.9 0.7 0.8
State of Minnesota 5,310.8 5,639.6 5,698.6 5,871.1 0.7 0.5 0.6
United States 309,321.6 328,241.4 332,219.5 343,776.8 0.7 0.6 0.7
Per-Capita Personal Income*
Washington County $49,783 $62,380 $64,999 $69,890 2.5 2.1 1.5
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 48,288 58,493 60,456 64,850 2.2 1.7 1.4
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA 47,141 57,104 58,967 63,251 2.2 1.6 1.4
State of Minnesota 44,518 53,558 55,248 59,464 2.1 1.6 1.5
United States 42,366 51,424 53,262 57,739 2.2 1.8 1.6
W&P Wealth Index
Washington County 119.4 121.8 122.4 121.5 0.2 0.2 (0.1)
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 113.9 113.7 113.5 112.5 (0.0)(0.1)(0.2)
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA 111.3 111.0 110.7 109.7 (0.0)(0.1)(0.2)
State of Minnesota 104.6 103.6 103.3 102.6 (0.1)(0.2)(0.1)
United States 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (0.0)0.0 0.0
Food and Beverage Sales (Millions)*
Washington County $300 $479 $509 $596 5.3 3.1 3.2
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 5,599 7,591 7,944 8,863 3.4 2.3 2.2
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA 6,073 8,186 8,569 9,575 3.4 2.3 2.2
State of Minnesota 7,876 10,381 10,865 12,166 3.1 2.3 2.3
United States 475,553 683,513 718,507 814,042 4.1 2.5 2.5
Total Retail Sales (Millions)*
Washington County $3,040 $3,995 $4,248 $4,761 3.1 3.1 2.3
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 52,756 70,111 74,064 81,671 3.2 2.8 2.0
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA 58,612 77,053 81,377 89,670 3.1 2.8 2.0
State of Minnesota 80,256 101,028 106,472 116,662 2.6 2.7 1.8
United States 4,387,108 5,538,706 5,846,867 6,434,974 2.6 2.7 1.9
* Inflation Adjusted
Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 27
The U.S. population grew at an average annual compounded rate of 0.7% from 2010
through 2019. The county’s population has increased at a quicker pace than the
nation’s population; the average annual growth rate of 1.0% between 2010 and
2019 reflects a gradually expanding area. Following this populati on trend, per-
capita personal income increased, at 2.5% on average annually for the county
between 2010 and 2019. Local wealth indexes have remained stable in recent years,
registering a high 121.8 level for the county in 2019.
Food and beverage sales totaled $479 million in the county in 2019, versus $300
million in 2010. This reflects a 5.3% average annual change. The pace of growth is
anticipated to be 3.2% through 2026. The retail sales sector demonstrated an
annual increase of 3.1% in the decade spanning from 2010 to 2019. An increase of
2.3% average annual change is expected in county retail sales through 2026.
The characteristics of an area's workforce provide an indication of the type and
amount of transient visitation likely to be generated by local businesses. Sectors
such as finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE); wholesale trade; and services
produce a considerable number of visitors who are not particularly rate sensitive.
The government sector often generates transient room nights, but per-diem
reimbursement allowances often limit the accommodations selection to budget and
mid-priced lodging facilities. Contributions from manufacturing, construction,
transportation, communications, and public utilities (TCPU) employers can also be
important, depending on the company type.
The following table sets forth the county workforce distribution by business sector
in 2019, 2020, and 2019, as well as a forecast for 2026.
Workforce
Characteristics
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 28
FIGURE 3-2 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT (000S)
Average Annual
Compounded Change
Percent Percent Percent Percent
Industry 2019 of Total 2020 of Total 2021 of Total 2026 of Total
Farm 0.6 0.5 %0.6 0.5 %0.6 0.5 %0.6 0.4 %(1.1)%(0.9)%(1.0)%
Forestry, Fishing, Related Activities And Other 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 (2.9)7.8 2.2
Mining 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 (13.8)19.1 1.3
Utilities 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 3.1 2.4 2.6
Construction 6.2 4.9 6.0 5.0 6.2 4.7 6.2 4.4 (1.6)1.7 (0.0)
Manufacturing 10.7 8.5 10.4 8.5 10.7 8.2 10.6 7.5 (3.2)3.7 (0.3)
Total Trade 21.2 16.8 20.8 17.1 21.8 16.7 23.3 16.5 (2.0)4.9 1.3
Wholesale Trade 3.8 3.0 3.8 3.2 4.0 3.1 4.6 3.3 0.3 5.3 2.7
Retail Trade 17.4 13.8 16.9 14.0 17.7 13.6 18.6 13.3 (2.5)4.8 1.0
Transportation And Warehousing 3.9 3.1 4.0 3.3 4.2 3.2 4.7 3.4 0.8 4.9 2.7
Information 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.2 (4.2)4.9 0.2
Finance And Insurance 7.4 5.9 7.6 6.3 7.8 6.0 8.6 6.1 2.8 2.6 2.0
Real Estate And Rental And Lease 6.7 5.3 6.6 5.4 7.0 5.3 7.8 5.5 (2.4)6.1 2.3
Total Services 54.6 43.3 50.7 41.9 57.1 43.8 63.4 45.1 (7.1)12.5 2.1
Professional And Technical Services 8.3 6.6 8.4 6.9 8.8 6.7 10.0 7.1 1.2 4.5 2.6
Management Of Companies And Enterprises 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.6 2.3 1.6 (1.2)4.8 1.7
Administrative And Waste Services 4.5 3.6 4.2 3.4 4.7 3.6 5.0 3.6 (7.3)11.5 1.5
Educational Services 2.3 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.4 1.8 2.7 1.9 (6.2)11.5 1.9
Health Care And Social Assistance 14.4 11.4 14.3 11.8 15.2 11.7 17.5 12.5 (0.5)6.3 2.9
Arts, Entertainment, And Recreation 4.5 3.6 3.4 2.8 4.7 3.6 5.3 3.8 (25.2)40.4 2.2
Accommodation And Food Services 10.2 8.1 8.5 7.0 10.5 8.1 11.4 8.1 (17.1)24.7 1.5
Other Services, Except Public Administration 8.3 6.6 7.8 6.4 8.6 6.6 9.3 6.6 (6.3)10.2 1.5
Total Government 12.2 9.6 11.9 9.9 12.3 9.4 12.5 8.9 (1.7)2.7 0.4
Federal Civilian Government 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 5.7 (4.9)0.2
Federal Military 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0
State And Local Government 10.9 8.6 10.6 8.8 11.0 8.4 11.3 8.0 (2.1)3.3 0.5
TOTAL 126.1 100.0 %121.2 100.0 %130.3 100.0 %140.6 100.0 %(4.0)%7.5 %1.5 %
MSA 2,565.6 — 2,477.9 — 2,632.1 — 2,790.9 — (3.4)%6.2 %1.2 %
U.S.203,809.5 — 191,619.5 — 209,319.1 — 222,948.2 — (6.0)9.2 1.3
Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.
2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2026
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 29
Forecasts developed by Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. anticipate that total
employment in the county will change by 1.5% on average annually through 2026.
The trend is above the forecast rate of change for the U.S. as a whole during the same
period.
The following table illustrates historical and projected employment, households,
population, and average household income data, as provided by REIS for the overall
Minneapolis market.
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 30
FIGURE 3-3 HISTORICAL & PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT, HOUSEHOLDS, POPULATION, AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME STATISTICS
Year
2009 1,739,630 — 559,689 — 286,592 — 1,302,290 — 3,342,510 — $115,087 —
2010 1,762,200 1.3 %571,584 2.1 %290,051 1.2 %1,308,190 0.5 %3,371,240 0.9 %122,791 6.7 %
2011 1,806,000 2.5 584,375 2.2 297,204 2.5 1,325,250 1.3 3,404,940 1.0 127,177 3.6
2012 1,834,330 1.6 594,806 1.8 300,638 1.2 1,340,140 1.1 3,437,940 1.0 135,768 6.8
2013 1,874,670 2.2 605,752 1.8 302,528 0.6 1,358,560 1.4 3,474,260 1.1 133,936 (1.3)
2014 1,906,070 1.7 613,276 1.2 309,268 2.2 1,372,580 1.0 3,504,970 0.9 142,269 6.2
2015 1,942,170 1.9 623,602 1.7 313,394 1.3 1,384,130 0.8 3,535,000 0.9 146,405 2.9
2016 1,974,800 1.7 634,168 1.7 313,722 0.1 1,395,770 0.8 3,572,110 1.0 150,305 2.7
2017 2,003,600 1.5 641,640 1.2 314,231 0.2 1,402,540 0.5 3,608,320 1.0 156,416 4.1
2018 2,027,130 1.2 650,150 1.3 317,030 0.9 1,414,660 0.9 3,640,640 0.9 163,071 4.3
2019 2,041,670 0.7 653,578 0.5 319,328 0.7 1,427,590 0.9 3,669,840 0.8 166,203 1.9
2020 1,892,470 (7.3)618,700 (5.3)303,119 (5.1)1,434,670 0.5 3,694,800 0.7 171,027 2.9
2021 1,950,530 3.1 629,616 1.8 312,358 3.0 1,455,600 1.5 3,722,940 0.8 178,884 4.6
Forecasts
2022 2,013,250 3.2 %648,333 3.0 %324,377 3.8 %1,474,460 1.3 %3,753,520 0.8 %186,145 4.1 %
2023 2,039,070 1.3 654,386 0.9 326,019 0.5 1,491,730 1.2 3,782,410 0.8 193,646 4.0
2024 2,058,460 1.0 660,825 1.0 327,076 0.3 1,507,860 1.1 3,809,410 0.7 201,312 4.0
2025 2,068,110 0.5 664,805 0.6 326,613 (0.1)1,523,320 1.0 3,835,430 0.7 208,563 3.6
2026 2,076,990 0.4 669,612 0.7 325,458 (0.4)1,537,640 0.9 3,861,130 0.7 215,964 3.5
Average Annual Compound Change
2009 - 2021 1.0 %1.0 %0.7 %0.9 %0.9 %3.7 %
Forecast 2022 - 2026 0.8 %0.8 %0.1 %1.1 %0.7 %3.8 %
Household
Avg. Income % Chg
Source: REIS Report, 2nd Quarter, 2022
Households % Chg Population
Industrial
Employment % Chg % Chg% Chg
Office
Employment
Total
Employment % Chg
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 31
For the Minneapolis market, of the roughly 2,000,000 persons employed, 32% are
categorized as office employees, while 16% are categorized as industrial employees.
Total employment is expected to expand by 3.2% in 2022, while office employment
is forecast to expand by 3.0% in 2022.
The number of households is forecast to expand by 1.1% on average annually
between 2022 and 2026. Population is forecast to expand during this same period,
at an average annual compounded rate of 0.7%. Household average income is
forecast to grow by 3.8% on average annually from 2022 through 2026.
The following table illustrates historical and projected levels of population and
number of households for the City of Cottage Grove, according to Minnesota
Department of Employment and Economic Development and the Metropolitan
Council.
FIGURE 3-4 COTTAGE GROVE POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS
As illustrated in the chart above, the population of Cottage Grove has increased
significantly in the last thirty years, and is expected to continue to realize strong
growth in the coming decades. Cottage Grove’s population exceeded projections for
2020, according to the Metropolitan Council.
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 32
The following table reflects radial demographic trends for our market area
measured by three points of distance.
FIGURE 3-5 DEMOGRAPHICS BY RADIUS (JAMAICA AVENUE EXIT USED)
Population
2027 Projection 7,753 41,051 59,539
2022 Estimate 7,545 39,267 56,892
2010 Census 7,242 35,405 49,717
2000 Census 7,098 31,880 44,778
Percent Change: 2022 to 2027 2.8%4.5%4.7%
Percent Change: 2010 to 2022 4.2%10.9%14.4%
Percent Change: 2000 to 2010 2.0%11.1%11.0%
Households
2027 Projection 2,746 14,404 21,211
2022 Estimate 2,650 13,712 20,159
2010 Census 2,460 12,091 17,269
2000 Census 2,316 10,442 15,030
Percent Change: 2022 to 2027 3.6%5.1%5.2%
Percent Change: 2010 to 2022 7.7%13.4%16.7%
Percent Change: 2000 to 2010 6.2%15.8%14.9%
Income
2022 Est. Average Household Income $118,688 $133,035 $135,850
2022 Est. Median Household Income 105,852 111,569 111,405
2022 Est. Civ. Employed Pop 16+ by Occupation
Architecture/Engineering 49 401 614
Arts/Design/Entertainment/Sports/Media 51 261 402
Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance 116 715 1,038
Business/Financial Operations 262 1,314 1,864
Community/Social Services 97 486 638
Computer/Mathematical 94 733 1,125
Construction/Extraction 300 1,020 1,408
Education/Training/Library 356 1,393 1,938
Farming/Fishing/Forestry 4 62 88
Food Preparation/Serving Related 226 1,094 1,545
Healthcare Practitioner/Technician 293 1,494 2,137
Healthcare Support 161 797 1,111
Installation/Maintenance/Repair 247 978 1,199
Legal 51 229 294
Life/Physical/Social Science 25 182 284
Management 438 2,278 3,487
Office/Administrative Support 564 2,773 3,780
Production 298 1,554 2,049
Protective Services 69 401 588
Sales/Related 374 2,057 2,985
Personal Care/Service 159 683 959
Transportation/Material Moving 221 1,546 2,156
0.00 - 1.00 miles 0.00 - 3.00 miles 0.00 - 5.00 miles
Source: Environics Analytics
Radial Demographic
Snapshot
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 33
This source reports a population of 56,892 and 20,159 households within a five-
mile radius of the Jamaica Avenue Exit. The average household income within this
radius is reported at $135,850, while the median is $111,405.
The following table presents historical unemployment rates for the proposed
subject hotel’s market area.
FIGURE 3-6 UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS
Year
2012 5.3 %5.5 %5.6 %8.1 %
2013 4.6 4.8 5.0 7.4
2014 3.7 4.0 4.2 6.2
2015 3.2 3.4 3.7 5.3
2016 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.9
2017 3.1 3.1 3.4 4.4
2018 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.9
2019 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.7
2020 5.8 6.5 6.3 8.1
2021 3.0 3.4 3.4 5.4
Recent Month - July
2021 2.8 %3.2 %3.2 %5.4 %
2022 1.8 2.0 2.1 3.5
U.S.City MSA State
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Prior to the pandemic, U.S. unemployment levels were firmly below the 4.6% level
recorded in 2006 and 2007, the peak years of the economic cycle prior to the Great
Recession. The unemployment rate for February 2020 was 3.5%. The
unemployment rate had remained in the 3.5% to 3.7% range since April 2019,
reflecting a trend of stability and strength of the U.S. economy. However, in April
2020, unemployment rose to 14.7%, and employment dropped by 20.7 million
because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steady declines in unemployment have been
registered since April 2020; most recently, the national unemployment rate was
3.7% in October 2022. A 292,000-, 315,000-, and 261,000-person rise in
employment was registered in August, September, and October 2022, respectively.
In October, the most significant gains were reported in the health care, professional
and technical services, and manufacturing sectors.
Unemployment
Statistics
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 34
Locally, the unemployment rate was 3.0% in 2021; for this same area in 2022, the
most recent month’s unemployment rate was registered at 1.8%, versus 2.8% for
the same month in 2021. Unemployment fell from 2013 through 2015 and remained
somewhat flat in 2016. In 2017 and 2018, unemployment continued to decline given
the strong economy and increased development in the Twin Cities region. In 2019,
the region illustrated a minimal increase in unemployment due to a loss in
employment opportunities created by such major events as the Super Bowl, which
was hosted in Minneapolis in February 2018. However, unemployment data for
2020 illustrate a sharp increase given the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and
related global economic crisis, which included massive furloughs/layoffs.
Unemployment declined in 2021 as the economy began to rebound, and the most
recent comparative period shows where the local market stands in 2022 relative to
the same month of 2021, reflecting improvement given the strengthening economic
conditions. Market participants are optimistic for a long-term market recovery
given the depth of local employers and construction in the industrial sector.
Providing additional context for understanding the nature of the regional economy,
the following table presents a list of the major employers (as available) in the
Cottage Grove Business Park.
FIGURE 3-7 MAJOR EMPLOYERS REPORTED IN BUSINESS PARK
Number of
Rank Firm*Employees
1 Renewal by Andersen 1,600
2 3M 751
3 Up North Plastics 500
4 Van Meter 189
5 ADMC 163
6 North Star Sheets 85
7 GTI/Leafline 52
8 Airgas 20
9 Aveka 17
* Data on some companies not available
Source: City of Cottage Grove, 2022
Major Business and
Industry
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 35
FIGURE 3-8 COTTAGE GROVE EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
The population of Cottage Grove more than doubled between 1970 and 2000 and
increased by another 25.0% between 2000 and 2020. While initially a bedroom
community of the Twin Cities, Cottage Grove has grown into a popular business
center for warehouse and industrial development. One of the larger employers is
3M, whose manufacturing facility has been in operation since 1947. Recent
upgrades at 3M include over $165 million in a state-of-the-art water-treatment
processing system. Expansions within the business park include the recent 37,000-
square-foot expansion of North Star Sheets, as well as the ongoing 42,000-square-
foot expansion of GTI/Leafline and 50,000-square-foot expansion of Van Meter. In
addition, the largest employer, Renewal by Andersen, is currently undergoing a
332,000-square-foot expansion, and Syndica Companies is constructing new two
buildings within the park. Furthermore, NorthPoint Development broke ground on
Phase I of the Cottage Grove Logistical Center, which is a $310-million project that
will total 3.4 million square feet of industrial space when fully developed. Ryan
Companies has also announced plans for future industrial development off of Keats
Avenue on the east site of the park. To accommodate the growing workforce,
residential development remains strong, as Cottage Grove reportedly ranked third
in the metro area for housing starts in 2021. In addition to attractive residential
neighborhoods and affordable housing options, the city also comprises nearly 1,300
acres of park land and 45 miles of trails.
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 36
BUSINESS PARK
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 37
While industrial developments represent a significant volume of construction, prior
the COVID-19 pandemic there was substantial investment in commercial and public
and institutional projects.
FIGURE 3-9 CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN COTTAGE GROVE
Although many employers in the market temporarily reduced staffing and/or
suspended operations following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March
2020, an economic recovery began in June 2020 when regulations began to be lifted;
moreover, tourism in the metro area rebounded rapidly during the summer of 2021.
The return of business travel and growth in industrial space should bolster the
economic recovery going forward.
The City of Cottage Grove does not offer a significant inventory of office space, and
the greater Washington County area has one of the lowest inventories of office space
in the metro area, as shown in the following table.
Office Space Statistics
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 38
FIGURE 3-10 OFFICE SPACE STATISTICS – MARKET OVERVIEW
Submarket
1 Dakota County 126 4,161,000 3,288,000 21.0 %$21.24
2 Midway/Greater St.Paul 64 4,046,000 3,097,000 23.5 22.22
3 Minneapolis CBD 165 30,081,000 23,513,000 21.8 28.32
4 Northeast 92 3,032,000 2,149,000 29.1 19.42
5 Southwest/Northeast Scott County 239 22,207,000 18,301,000 17.6 26.66
6 St. Paul CBD 28 4,767,000 3,613,000 24.2 20.42
7 West/Northwest 182 12,103,000 9,969,000 17.6 27.06
8 Anoka County 34 611,000 439,000 28.2 18.74
9 Washington County 54 1,540,000 1,064,000 30.9 $19.72
Totals and Averages 984 82,548,000 65,433,000 20.7 %$26.02
Source: REIS Report, 2nd Quarter, 2022
Inventory Occupied Office
Space
Vacancy
Rate
Average Asking
Lease RateBuildingsSquare Feet
The greater Minneapolis market comprises a total of 82.5 million square feet of
office space. For the 2nd Quarter of 2022, the market reported a vacancy rate of
20.7% and an average asking rent of $26.02. The subject property is located in the
Washington County submarket, which houses 1,540,000 square feet of office space.
The submarket's vacancy rate of 30.9% is significantly above the overall market
average. The average asking lease rate of $19.72 is below the average for the
broader market.
The following table illustrates a trend of office space statistics for the overall
Minneapolis market and the Washington County submarket.
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 39
FIGURE 3-11 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED OFFICE SPACE STATISTICS – GREATER MARKET VS. SUBMARKET
Year
2009 78,297,000 — 63,006,000 — 19.5 %$21.81 — 1,512,000 — 1,181,000 — 21.9 %$17.85 —
2010 78,324,000 0.0 %62,819,000 (0.3)%19.8 21.61 (0.9)%1,512,000 0.0 %1,089,000 (7.8)%28.0 17.50 (2.0)%
2011 77,762,000 (0.7)63,057,000 0.4 18.9 21.80 0.9 1,512,000 0.0 1,126,000 3.4 25.5 17.22 (1.6)
2012 77,863,000 0.1 63,658,000 1.0 18.2 22.12 1.5 1,512,000 0.0 1,143,000 1.5 24.4 17.87 3.8
2013 78,743,000 1.1 64,903,000 2.0 17.6 22.38 1.2 1,512,000 0.0 1,129,000 (1.2)25.3 18.24 2.1
2014 78,631,000 (0.1)65,130,000 0.3 17.2 22.63 1.1 1,522,000 0.7 1,085,000 (3.9)28.7 18.21 (0.2)
2015 78,980,000 0.4 65,664,000 0.8 16.9 22.52 (0.5)1,522,000 0.0 1,068,000 (1.6)29.8 17.97 (1.3)
2016 79,486,000 0.6 66,588,000 1.4 16.2 23.07 2.4 1,540,000 1.2 1,096,000 2.6 28.8 18.20 1.3
2017 79,101,000 (0.5)65,563,000 (1.5)17.1 23.23 0.7 1,540,000 0.0 1,146,000 4.6 25.6 18.23 0.2
2018 79,958,000 1.1 65,547,000 (0.0)18.0 23.78 2.4 1,540,000 0.0 1,160,000 1.2 24.7 18.53 1.6
2019 80,634,000 0.8 66,077,000 0.8 18.1 24.69 3.8 1,540,000 0.0 1,212,000 4.5 21.3 18.90 2.0
2020 81,847,000 1.5 66,339,000 0.4 18.9 25.54 3.4 1,540,000 0.0 1,209,000 (0.2)21.5 19.39 2.6
2021 82,548,000 0.9 66,086,000 (0.4)19.9 25.81 1.1 1,540,000 0.0 1,054,000 (12.8)31.6 19.24 (0.8)
Forecasts
2022 83,487,000 1.1 %66,091,000 0.0 %20.8 %26.05 0.9 %1,540,000 0.0 %1,085,000 2.9 %29.5 %19.58 1.8 %
2023 84,048,000 0.7 66,340,000 0.4 21.1 26.44 1.5 1,540,000 0.0 1,106,000 1.9 28.2 19.84 1.3
2024 84,349,000 0.4 66,520,000 0.3 21.1 26.87 1.6 1,540,000 0.0 1,132,000 2.4 26.5 20.00 0.8
2025 84,697,000 0.4 66,802,000 0.4 21.1 27.36 1.8 1,540,000 0.0 1,147,000 1.3 25.5 20.20 1.0
2026 85,309,000 0.7 67,267,000 0.7 21.2 27.91 2.0 1,540,000 0.0 1,167,000 1.7 24.2 20.43 1.1
Average Annual Compound Change
2009 - 2021 0.4 %0.4 %1.4 %0.2 %(0.9)%0.6 %
Forecast 2022 - 2026 0.5 %0.4 %1.7 %0.0 %1.8 %1.1 %
Source: REIS Report, 2nd Quarter, 2022
% Chg
Vacancy
Rate% Chg
Available
Office Space % Chg
Occupied
Office Space
Asking Lease
Rate % Chg
Vacancy
Rate% Chg
Minneapolis Market Washington County Submarket
Available Office
Space % Chg
Occupied Office
Space
Asking Lease
Rate
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 40
Meeting and event facilities are important generators of demand for hotel rooms in
the Cottage Grove area, and the city is home to three venues that are popular for
weddings, social events, and corporate meetings. The Historic Furber Farm is
located in on the eastern edge of Cottage Grove and features a restored 8,000-
square-foot dairy barn that can accommodate up to 500 guests. Hope Glen Farm is
a seasonal operation located near Ravine Regional Park and offers two venues for
events, including an historic barn and a pavilion. In addition, River Oaks Golf Course
can accommodate groups of up to 225 people inside and up to 240 outside and is
popular venue for weddings, golf tournaments, banquets, and corporate events.
Airport passenger counts are important indicators of lodging demand. Depending
on the type of service provided by a particular airfield, a sizable percentage of
arriving passengers may require hotel accommodations. Trends showing changes
in passenger counts also reflect local business activity and the overall economic
health of the area.
The Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP) is located seven miles
southeast of Downtown Minneapolis and about seven miles southwest of
Downtown St. Paul. The airport is serviced by major commercial airlines, as well as
numerous charter and cargo carriers. The airport has undergone expansions since
the mid-2010s to support continued passenger growth. Changes include the
February 2016 opening of the ten-lane North Security Checkpoint and the July 2018
opening of the 291-room InterContinental Hotel (connected to Lindbergh
Terminal). Approximately $27.5 million was spent in late 2016 on the addition of
four new gates at Terminal 2 to accommodate a projected increase in flights. The
newly expanded gate area also includes a nursing mothers' room; a service-animal
relief area; new restrooms, restaurants, and retail shops; and a new “green” roof.
Furthermore, nine new restaurants and stores opened in Terminal 1 in early 2017.
Beginning in August 2020, the new 5,000-space parking ramp opened in phases,
providing access to all rental-car facilities and off-airport parking shuttles.
The following table illustrates recent operating statistics for the Minneapolis St.
Paul International Airport, which is the primary airport facility serving the
proposed subject hotel’s submarket.
Meeting and Event
Facilities
Airport Traffic
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 41
FIGURE 3-12 AIRPORT STATISTICS - MINNEAPOLIS ST. PAUL INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT
Year
2012 33,170,960 — —
2013 33,897,335 2.2 %2.2 %
2014 35,147,083 3.7 2.9
2015 36,582,851 4.1 3.3
2016 37,505,521 2.5 3.1
2017 38,034,341 1.4 2.8
2018 38,037,381 0.0 2.3
2019 39,555,035 4.0 2.5
2020 14,851,289 (62.5)(9.6)
2021 25,202,120 69.7 (3.0)
Year-to-date, Aug
2021 15,688,149 ——
2022 20,935,996 33.5 %—
*Annual average compounded percentage change from the previous year
**Annual average compounded percentage change from first year of data
Source: Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport
Passenger
Change*Traffic
Percent Percent
Change**
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 42
FIGURE 3-13 LOCAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC VS. NATIONAL TREND
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Change in Passenger ActivitySource: HVS, Local Airport Authority
Local Passenger Volume National Passenger Volume
This facility recorded 25,202,120 passengers in 2021. The change in passenger
traffic between 2020 and 2021 was 69.7%. The average annual change during the
period shown was -3.0%. Following years of record growth in passenger traffic,
2020 data illustrate a significant decline given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
and the travel restrictions that were implemented; however, the 2021 data show a
rebound in passenger traffic, a trend that has continued thus far in 2022, per the
latest statistics. Airlines added eleven new domestic and international routes to
MSP for late spring and summer of 2022, including new service to Montreal and the
return of daily service to London Heathrow.
The subject market benefits from a variety of tourism and leisure attractions in the
area. The Twin Cities are well known for extensive theater and live performance-art
offerings, excellent shopping options, and eclectic dining venues. Leisure demand
generators include the Mall of America, the Guthrie Theater, Orpheum Theater,
Minneapolis Institute of Arts, Science Museum of Minnesota, as well as the various
sports venues including US Bank Stadium, Target Field, Target Center, and Xcel
Energy Center. We note that many of the tourist attractions and entertainment
venues temporarily closed or enacted visitor restrictions because of the COVID-19
pandemic, although most reopened in 2021 once the governmental restrictions
were lifted.
Tourist Attractions
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 43
This section discussed a wide variety of economic indicators for the pertinent
market area. The Cottage Grove market is relatively healthy, despite the effects of
the COVID-19 pandemic. The metropolitan area was adversely affected by the
downturn, but a recovery is evidently underway. The concentration of corporate
headquarters has served the Minneapolis MSA well, insulating the metro area from
the adverse effects of one industry's decline. The continued improvement of the
unemployment rate and ongoing expansions in the area should continue to fuel
gains in housing and consumer-driven industries. Furthermore, a highly educated
workforce should continue to attract and retain business investment in the future.
In relation to national conditions, the Minneapolis MSA and the city of Cottage Grove
rank well, featuring comparatively lower unemployment rates and greater stability
among key employment sectors. Thus, the near-term market outlook is overall
positive.
Our analysis of the outlook for this specific market also considers the broader
context of the national economy. The U.S. economy expanded at an overall rate of
2.3% in 2019, a decline from the 2.9% level achieved in 2018. For the seven quarters
leading up to 2020, GDP quarterly growth ranged between 1.3% and 2.9%,
reflecting moderate economic expansion. The slowdown and impact of COVID-19
became more evident in the first quarter of 2020, when GDP declined by 5.0%. As
shutdowns halted major components of the U.S. economy from mid-March through
May, and partial, halting re-openings continued to dampen business activity, the U.S.
economy contracted by an annualized rate of 31.2% in the second quarter, the
largest such decline in U.S. history. The decline affected virtually every corner of the
economy, with major decreases in personal consumption, exports, private inventory
investment, residential and nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local
government spending.
Conclusion
November-2022 Market Area Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 44
FIGURE 3-14 UNITED STATES GDP GROWTH RATE
2.3 2.2 2.9 3.9 3.8 2.7 1.9 0.9 2.4 3.2 2.8 1.9
-5.1
-31.2
33.8
4.5 6.3 6.7 2.3 6.9
-1.6 -0.6
2.6
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GDP (Trillions)Annualized % ChangeSources: tradingeconomics.com, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Annualized % Change GDP (Trillions)
While shocking, the GDP decline during the second quarter of 2020 was offset by a
significant rebound in economic activity in the third quarter of 2020, greatly
moderating the overall impact for the year. The U.S. economy grew by 33.8% on an
annualized basis in the third quarter, followed by more modest gains in the five
quarters that followed through the end of 2021 (GDP surpassed the pre-pandemic
peak by the first quarter of 2021). In the first two quarters of 2022, GDP contracted
1.6% and 0.6%, respectively, on an annualized basis, driven in part by the trade
deficit and a decline in inventory investment and government spending. Third-
quarter GDP then increased by 2.6%, as employment continued to expand and as
consumer spending, although slowing, remained strong. However, high inflation
persists, and the recent and expected increases in the federal funds rate are slowing
sectors of the economy. Hotel investors remain optimistic about the long-term
outlook for the industry, based primarily upon the strong results achieved in the
first three quarters of the year, citing factors such as the rebound in travel, rising
hotel performance levels, and opportunities to generate significant returns.
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 45
4. Supply and Demand Analysis
In the lodging industry, price varies directly, but not proportionately, with demand
and inversely, but not proportionately, with supply. Supply is measured by the
number of guestrooms available, and demand is measured by the number of rooms
occupied; the net effect of supply and demand toward equilibrium results in a
prevailing price, or average daily rate (ADR). The purpose of this section is to
investigate current supply and demand trends, as indicated by the current
competitive market, and to set forth a basis for the projection of future supply and
demand growth.
Within a 15-mile radius of the city of Cottage Grove, nearly 100 lodging facilities
totaling more than 11,000 guestrooms are in operation. Within this greater market,
the direct submarket that is expected to include the proposed subject hotel
comprises the cities of Woodbury and Cottage Grove. The proposed subject hotel is
expected to compete with two hotels within Cottage Grove, and an additional seven
hotels in Woodbury have been considered as future secondary competitors given
their product offering, price point, and location.
A hotel’s local lodging market is most directly affected by the supply and demand
trends within the immediate area. However, individual markets are also influenced
by conditions in the national lodging market. We have reviewed national lodging
trends to provide a context for the forecast of the supply and demand for the
proposed subject hotel’s competitive set.
STR is an independent research firm that compiles data on the lodging industry, and
this information is routinely used by typical hotel buyers. The following STR
diagram presents annual hotel occupancy, ADR, and rooms revenue per available
room (RevPAR) data since 1989. RevPAR is calculated by multiplying occupancy by
ADR and provides an indication of how well rooms revenue is being maximized.
Definition of Subject
Hotel Market
National Trends
Overview
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 46
FIGURE 4-1 NATIONAL OCCUPANCY, ADR, AND REVPAR TRENDS
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Source: STR
RevPAR Average Rate Occupancy
The preceding chart illustrates the impact of the recessions of the early 1990s,
2000s, the financial crisis of 2008/09, and the recent pandemic on the U.S. lodging
industry. In each case, the downturn caused lodging demand to drop, resulting in an
occupancy decline. The aggregate ADR also fell, as hoteliers used price as a
marketing tool to attract demand and support occupancy levels. As occupancy
recovered, ADR growth resumed, although the ADR recovery lagged somewhat
behind occupancy levels, as price discounts contributed to the initial recovery of
demand. Following the financial crisis of the Great Recession, occupancy fell by over
eight points, and ADR declined by 5.9%, resulting in an 18.3% decrease in RevPAR.
The market recovered steadily thereafter, with occupancy surpassing the 65.0%
mark in 2015, and ADR also consistently growing, albeit at a decelerating pace.
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 47
FIGURE 4-2 NATIONAL OCCUPANCY AND ADR TRENDS: 2019, 2020, 2021
United States 66.0 %44.0 %(33.3)%57.7 %31.1 %$131.23 $103.25 (21.3)%$124.68 20.7 %$86.64 $45.48 (47.5)%$71.88 58.2 %5.2 %37.8 %
Region
New England 64.7 %38.8 %(40.1)%55.7 %44.4 %$161.08 $123.17 (23.5)%$156.04 25.8 %$104.25 $47.77 (54.2)%$86.93 81.6 %5.6 %52.5 %
Middle Atlantic 69.0 41.3 (40.1)55.4 34.1 166.27 115.26 (30.7)143.60 24.1 114.81 47.65 (58.5)79.52 66.4 4.8 40.6
South Atlantic 67.5 45.7 (32.2)59.9 31.2 128.41 107.99 (15.9)130.29 20.7 86.68 49.40 (43.0)78.08 58.3 6.2 39.3
E. North Central 61.1 39.1 (36.0)52.4 34.2 112.64 86.72 (23.0)105.15 20.6 68.82 33.93 (50.7)55.11 61.9 4.5 40.2
E. South Central 62.4 45.7 (26.8)59.5 30.6 103.58 85.74 (17.2)104.49 21.8 64.61 39.18 (39.4)62.21 59.0 3.1 34.6
W. North Central 58.3 39.1 (32.9)51.1 31.1 99.28 83.65 (15.7)97.01 15.7 57.88 32.72 (43.5)49.58 51.7 2.4 34.3
W. South Central 62.6 44.9 (28.2)58.2 29.7 101.84 82.88 (18.6)95.84 15.8 63.77 37.25 (41.6)55.73 50.1 3.4 34.0
Mountain 66.9 46.7 (30.1)59.6 28.2 121.89 105.70 (13.3)124.82 18.5 81.54 49.39 (39.4)74.44 51.9 6.3 36.3
Pacific 73.6 47.1 (36.0)60.3 27.6 171.40 129.57 (24.4)157.57 22.1 126.16 61.01 (51.6)94.97 55.8 7.2 36.8
Class
Luxury 70.9 %36.8 %(48.1)%52.3 %42.0 %$304.11 $285.78 (6.0)%$342.63 19.7 %$215.73 $105.29 (51.2)%$179.24 70.0 %18.3 %68.0 %
Upper-Upscale 72.6 34.8 (52.1)49.8 43.4 188.24 159.14 (15.5)179.35 12.6 136.67 55.30 (59.5)89.39 61.5 13.3 62.5
Upscale 71.5 42.8 (40.1)59.3 38.8 143.60 117.80 (18.0)133.72 13.4 102.68 50.45 (50.9)79.35 57.4 7.1 48.6
Upper-Midscale 67.5 45.3 (32.9)61.1 35.1 115.91 98.80 (14.8)114.82 16.1 78.20 44.72 (42.8)70.20 56.8 4.2 40.7
Midscale 59.5 44.4 (25.4)57.0 28.8 95.82 84.47 (11.8)99.25 17.9 57.03 37.52 (34.2)56.59 51.8 2.5 32.0
Economy 59.4 49.2 (17.1)58.8 20.0 75.50 65.45 (13.3)77.94 18.1 44.83 32.30 (28.2)45.83 41.8 0.0 20.0
Location
Urban 73.2 %37.9 %(48.2)%51.8 %35.9 %$183.20 $127.80 (30.2)%$153.22 20.2 %$134.12 $48.47 (63.9)%$79.30 63.3 %9.9 %49.4 %
Suburban 66.7 46.4 (30.4)60.0 29.3 111.26 88.81 (20.2)104.76 17.9 74.24 41.24 (44.4)62.88 52.5 3.5 33.9
Airport 73.7 44.5 (39.6)60.5 35.8 119.22 93.71 (21.4)104.53 11.4 87.85 41.72 (52.5)63.20 51.3 2.8 39.5
Interstate 57.9 44.8 (22.7)57.8 29.5 87.86 79.05 (10.0)92.05 16.6 50.85 35.39 (30.4)53.22 50.9 2.0 32.1
Resort 70.0 42.9 (38.6)57.9 35.4 182.74 170.36 (6.8)208.73 22.4 127.85 73.13 (42.8)120.93 65.7 14.3 54.7
Small Town 57.8 44.4 (23.1)57.0 28.9 107.26 96.95 (9.6)116.63 20.0 61.98 43.07 (30.5)66.43 54.8 2.0 31.6
Chain Scale
Luxury 73.8 %32.0 %(56.7)%47.8 %49.7 %$343.02 $329.54 (3.9)%$383.64 16.1 %$253.17 $105.40 (58.4)%$183.44 73.8 %23.2 %84.3 %
Upper-Upscale 73.9 33.4 (54.8)48.7 45.6 189.25 158.86 (16.1)175.87 10.8 139.80 53.10 (62.0)85.69 61.3 14.7 67.0
Upscale 72.6 43.0 (40.7)59.7 38.9 142.38 115.11 (19.2)128.58 11.7 103.32 49.52 (52.1)76.75 55.1 6.8 48.4
Upper-Midscale 67.5 45.4 (32.7)61.6 35.9 112.80 96.04 (14.9)111.18 15.8 76.14 43.61 (42.7)68.53 57.3 4.2 41.6
Midscale 58.1 44.2 (23.8)56.6 28.1 86.61 77.29 (10.8)89.42 15.7 50.30 34.19 (32.0)50.61 48.2 1.5 30.1
Economy 58.7 50.9 (13.2)59.7 17.6 63.70 58.21 (8.6)66.80 14.8 37.36 29.64 (20.7)39.89 35.0 (1.3)16.0
Independents 63.5 44.8 (29.5)57.2 28.2 133.08 110.74 (16.8)137.78 24.8 84.44 49.56 (41.3)78.87 60.0 4.6 34.1
2020 % Change 2020 % Change 2021
RevPAR
% Change
Rms.
Avail.
Rms.
Sold
Percent Change
% Change
Occupancy Average Rate
2021 % Change2020% Change2019 201920192021
Source: STR - December 2020 and December 2021 Lodging Reviews
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 48
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 had a severe impact on the
lodging industry, causing occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR to decline by unprecedented
levels. The impact on the national lodging industry peaked mid-April; for the week
ending April 11, 2020, STR reported that national RevPAR was 83.6% lower than
the level recorded for the same week in 2019. By the conclusion of 2020, occupancy
had declined 22 points, with ADR decreasing by roughly $28.00, resulting in a
RevPAR loss of 48.0% (rounded). The sharp downturn in travel caused by COVID-
19 continued into early 2021, as the months of January and February 2020 had not
been notably affected by the pandemic.
Hotels that traditionally derive a significant component of their demand from the
larger group and convention subsegment were the hardest hit by the pandemic,
followed by properties in markets with a high proportion of business and
international travel. For this reason, the major metropolitan areas reported deep
RevPAR declines through the first half of 2021. Hotels in locations that depend
primarily on automobile traffic have fared better (including drive-to leisure
destinations), and the extended-stay category has also outperformed the national
average, fueling the illustrated 2021 recovery. Gaining traction in the summer of
2021, group demand began to show signs of recovery, albeit at a slower pace.
Accordingly, by the end of 2021, nationwide occupancy had rebounded to nearly
58.0%, with ADR reaching roughly $125, representing a RevPAR gain of 58.0%
(rounded).
Many corporations and institutions have begun to return to offices, at least in some
capacity. Group travel is recovering at an accelerating pace, as participants feel
increasingly comfortable gathering in larger numbers. Leisure demand, which led
the recovery in many markets, remains strong, with ADR levels in most destinations
surpassing historical levels. With a significant portion of the recovery now behind
us, and further interest rate increases likely on the horizon, hotel owners, operators,
and investors generally expect less-significant gains in 2023 than those achieved in
2021 and 2022. Job growth and employment levels remain strong, and the return of
group travel in the summer and fall of 2022 has boded well for the industry.
However, the inflation rate remains elevated, and the related increases in the
federal funds rate may impact the degree of continued growth through 2023.
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 49
FIGURE 4-3 RECENT NATIONAL OCCUPANCY AND ADR TRENDS
United States 51.1 %59.9 %17.1 %$106.75 $142.82 33.8 %$54.56 $85.50 56.7 %3.4 %21.1 %
Region
New England 54.6 %65.0 %18.9 %$154.86 $189.67 22.5 %$84.63 $123.29 45.7 %2.1 %21.4 %
Middle Atlantic 54.2 63.0 16.3 135.99 176.27 29.6 73.69 111.05 50.7 6.5 23.8
South Atlantic 59.9 65.7 9.6 129.18 152.14 17.8 77.38 99.89 29.1 2.7 12.5
E. North Central 52.4 58.9 12.2 103.72 124.17 19.7 54.40 73.07 34.3 2.1 14.5
E. South Central 59.8 62.6 4.8 102.30 119.43 16.7 61.13 74.77 22.3 1.5 6.4
W. North Central 51.4 57.0 10.9 96.79 110.03 13.7 49.73 62.69 26.0 0.3 11.2
W. South Central 58.1 61.2 5.4 92.87 111.46 20.0 53.93 68.20 26.5 1.1 6.6
Mountain 59.3 65.1 9.9 122.90 146.83 19.5 72.87 95.65 31.3 0.9 10.9
Pacific 59.8 68.6 14.7 154.15 193.58 25.6 92.22 132.82 44.0 3.3 18.5
Class
Luxury 50.6 %63.3 %25.1 %$318.17 $362.83 14.0 %$160.97 $229.66 42.7 %6.2 %32.8 %
Upper-Upscale 48.2 63.6 31.9 170.62 207.34 21.5 82.22 131.79 60.3 6.7 40.8
Upscale 58.7 67.5 14.9 129.79 157.07 21.0 76.22 105.96 39.0 3.7 19.1
Upper-Midscale 61.3 66.4 8.2 113.02 130.61 15.6 69.33 86.73 25.1 2.5 10.9
Midscale 57.5 60.0 4.4 98.74 111.44 12.9 56.73 66.84 17.8 0.0 4.4
Economy 59.6 59.7 0.2 75.86 84.96 12.0 45.22 50.74 12.2 (1.0)(0.8)
Location
Urban 50.0 %63.4 %26.8 %$144.12 $194.54 35.0 %$72.11 $123.42 71.2 %7.8 %36.7 %
Suburban 59.9 64.9 8.3 102.67 123.63 20.4 61.53 80.27 30.4 1.2 9.6
Airport 59.5 69.0 16.1 102.19 127.62 24.9 60.77 88.09 45.0 1.4 17.7
Interstate 58.3 60.0 2.9 91.61 102.00 11.3 53.45 61.21 14.5 0.5 3.4
Resort 57.2 66.5 16.3 207.54 236.89 14.1 118.71 157.65 32.8 4.0 21.0
Small Town 57.8 59.6 3.1 117.91 130.78 10.9 68.12 77.89 14.3 0.4 3.5
Chain Scale
Luxury 44.7 %63.1 %40.9 %$370.80 $421.47 13.7 %$165.90 $265.78 60.2 %7.1 %51.0 %
Upper-Upscale 46.5 63.8 37.1 170.83 210.06 23.0 79.43 133.94 68.6 7.5 47.4
Upscale 59.0 68.1 15.4 125.81 153.58 22.1 74.19 104.55 40.9 4.2 20.2
Upper-Midscale 61.7 66.8 8.2 109.96 126.99 15.5 67.90 84.82 24.9 3.1 11.5
Midscale 57.3 59.0 3.0 89.18 99.79 11.9 51.12 58.92 15.3 (0.2)2.8
Economy 60.6 60.1 (0.7)66.57 73.16 9.9 40.34 44.00 9.1 (2.4)(3.1)
Independents 57.2 61.5 7.4 136.40 160.44 17.6 78.09 98.68 36.4 1.4 8.9
Rms.
Avail.
Rms.
Sold202120212022
Source: STR - September 2022 Lodging Review
2021 20222022
%
Change
%
Change% Change
Occupancy - YTD September Average Rate - YTD September RevPAR - YTD September Percent Change
To further understand the nature, timing, and degree of the impact of the pandemic
and subsequent recovery, we have reviewed the following weekly data for the U.S.
lodging industry, as published by STR.
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 50
FIGURE 4-4 NATIONAL OCCUPANCY TRENDS – WEEKLY DATA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021 2022
FIGURE 4-5 NATIONAL ADR TRENDS – WEEKLY DATA
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021 2022
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 51
FIGURE 4-6 NATIONAL REVPAR TRENDS – WEEKLY DATA
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021 2022
The subject property is located in the greater Minneapolis-St. Paul market. The
following table presents the historical occupancy, average rate, and RevPAR data for
this metropolitan area for 2001 through September 2022. The data reflect the
historical performance of the market, including the impact of and recovery from the
2001 and 2008/09 downturns.
Minneapolis-St. Paul,
MN Lodging Market
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 52
FIGURE 4-7 MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL LODGING MARKET DATA – 2001 TO
YTD SEPTEMBER 2022
Year
2001 62.6 %— $85.65 — $53.62 —
2002 60.5 (3.4)%83.26 (2.8)%50.37 (6.1)%
2003 60.5 0.0 81.07 (2.6)49.05 (2.6)
2004 63.7 5.3 81.92 1.0 52.18 6.4
2005 66.7 4.7 86.83 6.0 57.92 11.0
2006 65.6 (1.6)93.87 8.1 61.58 6.3
2007 65.9 0.5 98.40 4.8 64.85 5.3
2008 61.9 (6.1)102.39 4.1 63.38 (2.3)
2009 56.1 (9.4)91.47 (10.7)51.31 (19.0)
2010 61.0 8.7 90.88 (0.6)55.44 8.0
2011 63.9 4.8 95.40 5.0 60.96 10.0
2012 64.1 0.3 98.29 3.0 63.00 3.4
2013 66.8 4.2 101.21 3.0 67.61 7.3
2014 67.4 0.9 107.56 6.3 72.50 7.2
2015 68.4 1.5 112.17 4.3 76.72 5.8
2016 68.0 (0.6)118.35 5.5 80.48 4.9
2017 67.0 (1.5)115.89 (2.1)77.65 (3.5)
2018 67.5 0.7 122.74 5.9 82.85 6.7
2019 66.6 (1.3)121.46 (1.0)80.89 (2.4)
2020 33.5 (49.7)86.40 (28.9)28.94 (64.2)
2021 44.5 32.8 100.52 16.3 44.73 54.5
Year to date through September
2021 44.1 %$97.70 $43.09
2022 56.8 28.8 %123.70 26.6 %70.26 63.1 %
Average Annual Compound Growth
2001 to 2021 (1.7)%0.8 %(0.9)%
Source: STR Global, STR Monthly Hotel Review
Percent
Change Average Rate
Percent
Change RevPAR
Percent
ChangeOccupancy
Local employers, including Fortune 500 companies, as well the Minneapolis
Convention Center and the Mall of America, represent the primary sources of
demand for the greater Minneapolis/St. Paul market. Hotels in this market enjoyed
stable occupancy levels in the mid-60s prior to 2020. Because of this stability, ADR
increased significantly following the Great Recession, largely due to corporate
demand from Target, Medtronic, US Bank, Cargill, 3M, Wells Fargo, and Best Buy.
Although the Minneapolis-St. Paul market was affected by the Great Recession, the
impact was relatively short-lived, with occupancy declining in 2008 and 2009 and
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 53
ADR falling in 2009 and 2010. Overall, RevPAR declined by nearly $14 from 2007
through 2009. Occupancy registered a historical peak in 2015 driven by the strong
levels of demand associated with the Ryder Cup. Record ADR levels caused a surge
in new hotel development, particularly in Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Bloomington.
Absorption of new supply and induced demand from the Super Bowl in early 2018
led to a reversal of these trends and a record RevPAR level of nearly $83 by year-
end 2018. Despite demand from the NCAA Final Four in 2019, occupancy and ADR
levels declined because of the correction from the Super Bowl spike and the
absorption of new supply, resulting in a $2 decline in RevPAR.
To assess the impact of COVID-19 on this market, we have reviewed the following
data, as published by STR, which track market performance on a weekly basis. The
weekly data illustrate the timing and degree of impact that the market is
experiencing.
FIGURE 4-8 MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL OCCUPANCY TRENDS – WEEKLY DATA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021 2022
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 54
FIGURE 4-9 MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL ADR TRENDS – WEEKLY DATA
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021 2022
FIGURE 4-10 MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL REVPAR TRENDS – WEEKLY DATA
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021 2022
The effects of COVID-19 on the Minneapolis lodging market have been severe. The
pandemic particularly affected Downtown Minneapolis because of its reliance on
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 55
the meeting/group segment, and with international travel substantially reduced,
hotels near the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport and the Mall of America
have been notably affected. Just as the Minnesota government's stay-at-home
orders began to ease, Minneapolis drew national attention for the death of George
Floyd during an arrest in May 2020; his death led to violence throughout the metro
area and sparked social injustice protests worldwide. As a result, Minneapolis-St.
Paul hotel market faced a slower recovery from the $52 loss in RevPAR recorded in
2020, with only a $16 gain in 2021. Many major employers delayed returning to
offices, and Target vacated nearly one million square feet of office space. While
many citywide events are planned for 2022, the full market recovery will require
the earnest return of corporate travel. Minneapolis -St. Paul has been noted as one
of the lowest-performing U.S. major markets this year, but the June opening of the
Four Seasons in Downtown Minneapolis is expected to contribute to strong ADR
growth. While the pandemic and negative publicity are anticipated to continue to
affect business in the near term, the long-term outlook is optimistic given the return
of international tourism, commercial demand, and citywide events.
STR is an independent research firm that compiles and publishes data on the lodging
industry, routinely used by typical hotel buyers. HVS has ordered and analyzed an
STR Trend Report of historical supply and demand data for a group of hotels
considered applicable to this analysis for the proposed subject hotel. This
information is presented in the following table, along with the market-wide
occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR.
In response to the travel restrictions and the decline in demand associated with the
COVID-19 pandemic, numerous hotels in markets across the nation temporarily
suspended operations. During these suspensions, hotels were typically closed to the
public, with the majority of staff furloughed; however, key management and
maintenance staff were retained to preserve the property and prepare for
reopening. The Hampton Inn & Suites by Hilton Woodbury suspended operations
between September 2020 and May 2021 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our
analysis considers the full supply of competitive rooms, including any hotels that
may have temporarily suspended operations. It is important to note that we have
adjusted STR data to reflect the total available rooms in the market and true
occupancy, regardless of suspended operations at competitive hotels.
Historical Supply
and Demand Data
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 56
FIGURE 4-11 HISTORICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS
Year
Average Daily
Room Count
Available
Room Nights Change
Occupied
Room Nights Change Occupancy
Average
Rate Change RevPAR Change
2009 507 185,055 — 95,505 — 51.6 %$96.36 — $49.73 —
2010 507 185,055 0.0 %116,297 21.8 %62.8 96.51 0.2 %60.65 22.0 %
2011 507 185,055 0.0 124,310 6.9 67.2 101.15 4.8 67.95 12.0
2012 507 185,055 0.0 124,112 (0.2)67.1 106.10 4.9 71.16 4.7
2013 506 184,721 (0.2)129,720 4.5 70.2 112.46 6.0 78.98 11.0
2014 505 184,506 (0.1)131,739 1.6 71.4 118.09 5.0 84.32 6.8
2015 505 184,325 (0.1)136,575 3.7 74.1 120.29 1.9 89.13 5.7
2016 562 205,065 11.3 148,497 8.7 72.4 125.62 4.4 90.97 2.1
2017 746 272,185 32.7 196,385 32.2 72.2 121.18 (3.5)87.43 (3.9)
2018 949 346,385 27.3 237,588 21.0 68.6 123.02 1.5 84.38 (3.5)
2019 949 346,385 0.0 230,585 (2.9)66.6 113.89 (7.4)75.82 (10.1)
2020 949 346,385 0.0 126,181 (45.3)36.4 92.74 (18.6)33.78 (55.4)
2021 949 346,385 0.0 190,974 51.3 55.1 101.33 9.3 55.87 65.4
Year-to-Date Through August
2019 949 230,607 — 159,344 — 69.1 %$114.48 — $79.10 —
2020 949 230,607 0.0 %85,816 (46.1)%37.2 94.38 (17.6)%35.12 (55.6)%
2021 918 223,047 (3.3)126,768 47.7 56.8 98.67 4.5 56.08 59.7
2022 949 230,607 3.4 157,954 24.6 68.5 112.05 13.6 76.75 36.9
Average Annual Compounded Change:
2009 – 2019 6.5 %9.2 %1.7 %4.3 %
2009 – 2020 5.9 2.6 (0.3)(3.5)
Competitive
Hotels Included in Sample Class Status
Hampton by Hilton Inn Minneapolis/St Paul-Woodbury Upper Midscale Class Secondary 63 May 2021 Jan 1996
Holiday Inn Express & Suites St Paul Woodbury Upper Midscale Class Secondary 100 Aug 1997 Aug 1997
Country Inn & Suites Cottage Grove Upper Midscale Class Primary 76 Jul 2002 Jul 2002
Hilton Garden Inn St Paul Oakdale Upscale Class Secondary 116 Feb 2005 Feb 2005
Sheraton Hotel St Paul Woodbury Upper Upscale Class Secondary 150 Jul 2008 Jul 2008
Residence Inn St Paul Woodbury Upscale Class Secondary 116 Sep 2016 Sep 2016
La Quinta Inns & Suites St Paul - Woodbury Upper Midscale Class Secondary 108 Nov 2016 Nov 2016
Hampton by Hilton Inn & Suites St Paul Oakdale/Woodbury Upper Midscale Class Secondary 100 Nov 2017 Nov 2017
Courtyard St Paul Woodbury Upscale Class Secondary 120 Jan 2018 Jan 2018
Total 949
Source: STR
Number
of Rooms
Year
Opened
Year
Affiliated
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 57
FIGURE 4-12 HISTORICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS (STR)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Occupancy (%)Room NightsAvailable Room Nights Occupied Room Nights Occupancy
It is important to note some limitations of the STR data. Hotels are occasionally
added to or removed from the sample; furthermore, not every property reports data
in a consistent and timely manner. These factors can influence the overall quality of
the information by skewing the results, and these inconsistencies may also cause
the STR data to differ from the results of our competitive survey. Nonetheless, STR
data provide the best indication of aggregate growth or decline in existing supply
and demand; thus, these trends have been considered in our analysis. Opening
dates, as available, are presented for each reporting hotel in the previous table.
The STR data for the competitive set reflect a market -wide occupancy level of 2021
in 55.1%, which compares to 36.4% for 2020. The STR data for the competitive set
reflect a market-wide ADR level of $101.33 in 2021, which compares to $92.74 for
2020. These occupancy and ADR trends resulted in a RevPAR level of $55.87 in
2021.
During the illustrated historical period, both occupancy and ADR generally followed
a strengthening trend through 2016. This improvement in market conditions was
driven largely by growth in the local economy and retail and commercial
development in Woodbury. Occupancy and ADR began to soften in 2017 as new
hotels were absorbed by the market. Supply increased by 88.0% between 2015 and
2018 with the opening of the Residence Inn by Marriott and La Quinta Inn & Suites
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 58
Woodbury in late 2016, the Hampton Inn & Suites Oakdale in late 2017, and the
Courtyard by Marriott in Woodbury in January 2018. While occupancy declined to
the high 60s in 2018, average rate remained fairly stable due to Super Bowl LII,
which was held in Minneapolis. Following the loss of this one-time demand source,
RevPAR fell by 10.0% in 2019. In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic began to
affect the local market, similar to the rest of the nation, resulting in stay-at-home
orders, group cancellations, and decreased business travel; thus, the 2020 data
illustrate a significant decline in occupancy and a roughly $21 loss in ADR. By year-
end 2021, occupancy and ADR had recovered a substantial portion of their 2020
losses, gaining traction in the latter half of the year after the wide distribution of
vaccines. The year-to-date data through August 2022 reflect continued recovery,
with both occupancy and ADR nearing the levels achieved in 2019. Given the return
of both commercial and leisure travel as well as the ongoing development in both
Woodbury and Cottage Grove, the outlook for the market is optimistic.
Seasonality trends are presented in the following tables.
FIGURE 4-13 SEASONALITY
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
High Season - June, July, August, September, October
Occupancy 83.4 %81.4 %84.4 %81.0 %78.7 %42.1 %66.6 %—
Average Rate $125.31 $130.89 $125.57 $123.42 $118.58 $91.05 $110.39 —
RevPAR 104.52 106.51 105.95 99.99 93.27 38.36 73.56 —
Shoulder Season - February, March, April, May
Occupancy 72.3 %74.6 %72.2 %66.4 %63.6 %30.6 %50.4 %62.9 %
Average Rate $117.96 $124.24 $119.53 $128.90 $110.92 $94.37 $88.91 $104.32
RevPAR 85.23 92.65 86.25 85.55 70.53 28.88 44.85 65.63
Low Season - January, November, December
Occupancy 61.0 %57.7 %53.5 %50.8 %50.4 %34.5 %42.1 %—
Average Rate $112.46 $116.99 $113.30 $111.93 $106.60 $94.29 $96.90 —
RevPAR 68.61 67.46 60.63 56.89 53.70 32.58 40.82 —
Source: STR
The illustrated occupancy and ADR patterns reflect important seasonal
characteristics. We have reviewed these trends in developing our forthcoming
forecast of market-wide demand and average rate. The competitive market has
historically been characterized by a moderate degree of seasonality. COVID-19
prompted some abnormalities to this regular trend in 2020 and early 2021;
however, the regular seasonality patterns returned to the market soon thereafter.
The strongest occupancy levels are often recorded in the summer months when
Seasonality
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 59
demand from leisure travelers typically supplements the commercial segment that
is the principal source of demand in this submarket. ADR levels have historically
reflected a similar pattern.
A review of the trends in occupancy and ADR by day of the week provides some
insight into the impact that the current economic conditions have had on the
competitive lodging market. The data, as provided by STR, are illustrated in the
following tables.
Patterns of Demand
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 60
FIGURE 4-14 OCCUPANCY BY DAY OF WEEK (TRAILING 12 MONTHS)
Month Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Total Month
Sep - 21 51.0 %57.2 %59.9 %60.0 %61.4 %81.5 %87.3 %65.1 %
Oct - 21 41.3 55.7 59.2 58.8 58.2 74.6 80.7 61.6
Nov - 21 34.5 46.6 49.8 50.5 49.1 53.5 55.8 48.5
Dec - 21 36.6 45.5 47.2 46.1 42.2 53.3 55.2 46.6
January 22 34.1 42.4 46.5 44.2 41.0 48.3 55.1 44.4
Feb - 22 36.6 49.2 52.9 49.2 45.2 54.8 66.5 50.6
Mar - 22 42.9 53.9 60.2 59.0 56.2 64.8 67.6 57.9
Apr - 22 47.8 63.5 70.6 67.4 62.8 68.5 74.6 65.5
May - 22 59.6 71.3 80.6 81.8 73.4 85.4 88.5 76.6
Jun - 22 66.5 81.8 87.0 84.0 82.4 93.0 94.4 84.1
Jul - 22 71.0 77.7 86.6 87.8 87.0 88.1 91.0 84.1
Aug - 22 66.1 81.5 87.7 85.3 82.6 89.1 91.1 83.5
Average 49.2 %60.5 %66.0 %64.7 %61.7 %71.2 %75.6 %64.1 %
Source: STR
FIGURE 4-15 ADR BY DAY OF WEEK (TRAILING 12 MONTHS)
Month Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Total Month
Sep - 21 $108.27 $105.83 $108.25 $109.05 $108.00 $116.46 $121.84 $111.85
Oct - 21 102.35 105.45 107.08 106.49 105.57 113.93 116.24 109.39
Nov - 21 99.76 101.95 102.76 104.91 103.74 104.42 106.07 103.53
Dec - 21 94.66 98.71 98.79 99.21 99.13 99.82 99.87 98.84
January 22 93.85 96.68 100.00 97.35 94.96 96.36 100.57 97.39
Feb - 22 93.43 97.32 98.24 98.74 94.69 98.75 103.05 98.21
Mar - 22 95.54 100.44 101.08 100.82 98.08 107.28 110.61 102.29
Apr - 22 94.28 99.01 104.47 104.70 99.01 106.51 109.40 103.40
May - 22 103.67 104.34 106.38 106.14 105.48 120.25 124.33 110.26
Jun - 22 110.22 115.66 119.86 115.99 116.16 132.66 136.27 121.40
Jul - 22 112.78 118.26 119.68 121.22 118.86 130.36 132.45 122.70
Aug - 22 110.51 116.58 119.54 119.47 117.23 134.61 138.48 122.59
Average $103.37 $106.51 $108.80 $108.84 $106.94 $116.03 $118.80 $110.47
Source: STR
FIGURE 4-16 OCCUPANCY AND ADR BY DAY OF WEEK (TRAILING 12 MONTHS)
$95.00
$100.00
$105.00
$110.00
$115.00
$120.00
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday SaturdayOccupancy (%)Occupancy ADR
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 62
FIGURE 4-17 OCCUPANCY, ADR, AND REVPAR BY DAY OF WEEK (MULTIPLE YEARS)
Occupancy (%)
Sep 19 - Aug 20 33.7 %45.7 %51.6 %48.7 %41.3 %46.2 %50.4 %45.3 %
Sep 20 - Aug 21 40.0 46.8 49.6 49.4 48.8 57.2 61.5 50.5
Sep 21 - Aug 22 49.2 60.5 66.0 64.7 61.7 71.2 75.6 64.1
Change (Occupancy Points)
FY 19 - FY 20 6.3 1.1 (2.1)0.7 7.6 11.0 11.1 5.1
FY 20 - FY 21 9.1 13.7 16.4 15.3 12.9 14.0 14.1 13.7
ADR ($)
Sep 19 - Aug 20 $98.73 $105.43 $108.11 $106.70 $100.88 $97.54 $99.32 $102.64
Sep 20 - Aug 21 92.19 93.47 94.52 94.57 95.38 100.06 101.79 96.40
Sep 21 - Aug 22 103.37 106.51 108.80 108.84 106.94 116.03 118.80 110.47
Change (Dollars)
FY 19 - FY 20 ($6.53)($11.96)($13.59)($12.12)($5.51)$2.52 $2.46 ($6.24)
FY 20 - FY 21 11.18 13.05 14.28 14.27 11.56 15.98 17.01 14.07
Change (Percent)
FY 19 - FY 20 (6.6)%(11.3)%(12.6)%(11.4)%(5.5)%2.6 %2.5 %(6.1)%
FY 20 - FY 21 12.1 14.0 15.1 15.1 12.1 16.0 16.7 14.6
RevPAR ($)
Sep 19 - Aug 20 $33.26 $48.20 $55.83 $51.94 $41.62 $45.08 $50.06 $46.54
Sep 20 - Aug 21 36.91 43.72 46.86 46.74 46.55 57.26 62.58 48.65
Sep 21 - Aug 22 50.84 64.46 71.79 70.43 65.97 82.65 89.85 70.85
Change (Dollars)
FY 19 - FY 20 $3.64 ($4.48)($8.97)($5.21)$4.93 $12.18 $12.52 $2.12
FY 20 - FY 21 13.93 20.74 24.93 23.70 19.41 25.39 27.27 22.20
Change (Percent)
FY 19 - FY 20 11.0 %(9.3)%(16.1)%(10.0)%11.8 %27.0 %25.0 %4.5 %
FY 20 - FY 21 37.8 47.4 53.2 50.7 41.7 44.3 43.6 45.6
Sunday Monday Tuesday Total YearWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday
Source: STR
Sunday Monday Tuesday Thursday
Sunday Monday Tuesday Thursday
Wednesday
Total YearSaturday
Friday
Wednesday Friday
Total YearSaturday
In most markets, business travel, including individual commercial travelers and
corporate groups, is the predominant source of demand on Monday through
Thursday nights. Leisure travelers and non-business-related groups generate a
majority of demand on Friday and Saturday nights. Occupancy levels are typically
weak on Sunday nights when all segments of demand are at their lowest. As business
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 63
travel intensifies, Tuesday and Wednesday reflect strong nights of occupancy.
Leisure travel strengthens on Friday and Saturday nights and often surpasses the
levels experienced midweek.
Based on an evaluation of the occupancy, rate structure, market orientation, chain
affiliation, location, facilities, amenities, reputation, and quality of each area hotel,
as well as the comments of management representatives, we have identified several
properties that are expected to be primarily competitive with the Proposed Cottage
Grove Hotel. If applicable, additional lodging facilities may be judged only
secondarily competitive; although the facilities, rate structures, or market
orientations of these hotels prevent their inclusion among the primary competitive
supply, they are expected to compete with the proposed subject hotel to some
extent.
The following table summarizes the important operating characteristics of the
future primary competitors and the aggregate secondary competitors (as
applicable). This information was compiled from personal interviews, inspections,
online resources, and our in-house database of operating and hotel facility data. In
cases where exact operating data for an individual property (or properties) were
not available, we have used these resources, as well as the STR data, to estimate
positioning within the market.
SUPPLY
Primary Competition
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 64
FIGURE 4-18 PRIMARY COMPETITORS – OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Est. Segmentation Estimated 2019 Estimated 2021
Property Occ.RevPAR RevPAR
Occupancy
Penetration
Yield
Penetration
Country Inn & Suites By Carlson
Cottage Grove 76 40 %10 %50 %76 60 - 65 %$95 - $100 $55 - $60 76 65 - 70 %$95 - $100 $60 - $65 110 - 120 %110 - 120 %
Wakota Inn & Suites 31 10 0 90 31 45 - 50 75 - 80 35 - 40 31 45 - 50 70 - 75 35 - 40 85 - 90 60 - 65
Sub-Totals/Averages 107 33 %8 %60 %107 59.2 %$90.11 $53.37 107 61.4 %$91.39 $56 111 %101.7 %
Secondary Competitors 873 63 %18 %19 %655 66.9 %$115.55 $77.31 655 54.1 %$101.67 $55 98 %99.7 %
Totals/Averages 980 59 %17 %24 %762 65.8 %$112.33 $73.95 762 55.1 %$100.06 $55 100 %100.0 %
* Specific occupancy and average rate data were utilized in our analysis, but are presented in ranges in the above table for the purposes of confidentiality.
Weighted
Annual
Room
Count
Number
of Rooms Average Rate Occ.
Weighted
Annual
Room
Count Average RateCommercialGroupLeisure
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 65
The following map illustrates the three possible locations of the proposed subject
property and its future competitors.
MAP OF COMPETITION
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 66
Our survey of the primarily competitive hotels in the local market shows a range of
lodging types and facilities. Each primary competitor was inspected and evaluated.
Descriptions of our findings are presented below.
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 67
PRIMARY COMPETITOR #1 - COUNTRY INN & SUITES BY CARLSON COTTAGE
GROVE
FIGURE 4-19 ESTIMATED HISTORICAL OPERATING STATISTICS
Year
Est. 2019 76 60 - 65 %$95 - $100 $55 - $60 90 - 95 %75 - 80 %
Est. 2021 76 65 - 70 95 - 100 60 - 65 110 - 120 110 - 120
Wtd. Annual
Room Count Occupancy RevPAR
Occupancy
Penetration
Yield
Penetration
Average
Rate
This upper-midscale hotel benefits from its national brand affiliation, good
condition, complimentary breakfast offering, and visible location along U.S.
Highway 10/61. Overall, the property appeared to be in good condition.
Country Inn & Suites By
Carlson Cottage Grove
8350 East Point
Douglas Road
Cottage Grove, MN
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 68
PRIMARY COMPETITOR #2 - WAKOTA INN & SUITES
FIGURE 4-20 ESTIMATED HISTORICAL OPERATING STATISTICS
Year
Est. 2019 31 45 - 50 %$75 - $80 $35 - $40 70 - 75 %45 - 50 %
Est. 2021 31 45 - 50 70 - 75 35 - 40 85 - 90 60 - 65
Wtd. Annual
Room Count Occupancy RevPAR
Occupancy
Penetration
Average
Rate
Yield
Penetration
This economy, limited-service hotel is proximate to many restaurants at the 80th
Avenue Exit of U.S. Highway 10/61, but is disadvantaged by its dated condition and
lack of amenities. Overall, the property appeared to be in fair condition.
Wakota Inn & Suites
7125 South 80th Street
Cottage Grove, MN
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 69
We have also reviewed other area lodging facilities to determine whether any may
compete with the proposed subject hotel on a secondary basis. The room count of
each anticipated secondary competitor has been weighted based on its assumed
degree of competitiveness in the future with the proposed subject hotel. By
assigning degrees of competitiveness, we can assess how the proposed subject hotel
and its future competitors may react to various changes in the market, including
new supply, changes to demand generators, and renovations or franchise changes
of existing supply. The following table sets forth the pertinent operating
characteristics of the secondary competitors.
Secondary
Competitors
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 70
FIGURE 4-21 SECONDARY COMPETITORS – OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Est. Segmentation Estimated 2019 Estimated 2021
Property
Number of
Rooms Occ.
Average
Rate RevPAR Occ.
Average
Rate RevPAR
Sheraton Saint Paul Woodbury 150 55 %30 %15 %75 %113 65 - 70 %$115 - $120 $75 - $80 113 50 - 55 %$95 - $100 $50 - $55
Courtyard by Marriott Saint Paul Woodbury 120 65 20 15 75 90 60 - 65 120 - 125 75 - 80 90 55 - 60 110 - 115 60 - 65
Residence Inn by Marriott Saint Paul
Woodbury 116 75 10 15 75 87 75 - 80 130 - 140 100 - 105 87 75 - 80 120 - 125 95 - 100
Hampton by Hilton Minneapolis Saint Paul
Woodbury 63 70 10 20 75 47 65 - 70 110 - 115 75 - 80 47 25 - 30 95 - 100 25 - 30
Hilton Garden Inn Saint Paul Oakdale 116 60 30 10 75 87 65 - 70 115 - 120 75 - 80 87 30 - 35 95 - 100 30 - 35
Hampton by Hilton Saint Paul Oakdale
Woodbury 100 60 10 30 75 75 60 - 65 105 - 110 65 - 70 75 50 - 55 95 - 100 50 - 55
La Quinta Inn & Suites Saint Paul Woodbury 108 60 10 30 75 81 65 - 70 95 - 100 65 - 70 81 55 - 60 85 - 90 50 - 55
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Saint Paul
Woodbury 100 65 15 20 75 75 60 - 65 105 - 110 65 - 70 75 55 - 60 90 - 95 50 - 55
Totals/Averages 873 63 %18 %19 %75 %655 66.9 %$115.55 $77.31 655 54.1 %$101.67 $55.00
* Specific occupancy and average rate data was utilized in our analysis, but is presented in ranges in the above table for the purposes of confidentiality.
Total
Competitive
Level
Weighted
Annual
Room
Count
Weighted
Annual
Room
CountLeisureCommercialGroup
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 71
Many of the area demand generators indicated that their guests stay at hotels in the
neighboring city of Woodbury due to the lack of preferred hotel accommodations in
Cottage Grove, preference for brand affiliation, lack of availability, and proximity to
more restaurant/retail options. Therefore, we have identified eight hotels in the city
of Woodbury that are expected to compete with the proposed subject hotel on a
secondary level.
It is important to consider any new hotels that may have an impact on the proposed
subject hotel’s operating performance. We have identified the following new supply
that is expected to have some degree of competitive interaction with the proposed
subject hotel based on location, anticipated market orientation and price point,
and/or operating profile.
FIGURE 4-22 NEW SUPPLY
Total
Proposed Property
Number
of
Competitive
Level
Estimated Opening
Date Development Stage
Proposed Subject Property 90 100 %90 May 1, 2025 Early Development
Confluence Hotel 77 75 58 May 1, 2023 Under Construction
Totals/Averages 167 148
Weighted
Room Count
The 77-room, full-service Confluence Hotel and Event Center is expected to open in
the second quarter of 2023 in Hastings, which is approximately ten miles southeast
of Cottage Grove. Given its expected location and product offering, this hotel has
been considered a future secondary competitor in our analysis. Based on
conversations with area planning officials, no additional hotels are under
construction or planned for development in the competitive market.
In response to the travel restrictions and the decline in demand associated with the
COVID-19 pandemic, numerous hotels in markets across the nation temporarily
suspended operations. During these suspensions, hotels were typically closed to the
public, with the majority of staff furloughed; however, key management and
maintenance staff were retained to preserve the property and prepare for
reopening. The Hampton Inn & Suites by Hilton Woodbury suspended operations
between September 2020 and May 2021 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our
analysis considers the full supply of competitive rooms, including any hotels that
may have temporarily suspended operations. It is important to note that we have
adjusted STR data to reflect the total available rooms in the market and true
occupancy, regardless of suspended operations at competitive hotels.
Supply Changes
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 72
While we have taken reasonable steps to investigate proposed hotel projects and
their status, due to the nature of real estate development, it is impossible to
determine with certainty every hotel that will be opened in the future or what thei r
marketing strategies and effect on the market will be. Depending on the outcome of
current and future projects, the future operating potential of the proposed subject
hotel may be affected. Future improvement in market conditions will raise the risk
of increased competition. Our forthcoming forecast of stabilized occupancy and ADR
is intended to reflect such risk.
We have identified various properties that are expected to be competitive to some
degree with the proposed subject hotel. We have also investigated potential
increases in competitive supply in this Cottage Grove submarket. The Proposed
Cottage Grove Hotel should enter a dynamic market of varying product types and
price points. Next, we will present our forecast for demand change, using the
historical supply data presented as a starting point.
The following table presents the most recent trends for the subject hotel market as
tracked by HVS. These data pertain to the competitors discussed previously in this
section; performance results are estimated, rounded for the competition, and
weighted if there are secondary competitors present. In this respect, the
information in the table differs from the previously presented STR data and is
consistent with the supply-and-demand analysis developed for this report.
FIGURE 4-23 HISTORICAL MARKET TRENDS
Year
Est. 2019 183,028 — 278,039 — 65.8 %$112.33 — $73.95 —
Est. 2020 104,688 (42.8)%278,039 0.0 %37.7 90.80 (19.2)%34.19 (53.8)%
Est. 2021 153,253 46.4 278,039 0.0 55.1 100.06 10.2 55.15 61.3
Avg. Annual Compounded
Chg., Est. 2019-Est. 2021:(8.5)%(0.0)%(5.6)%(13.6)%
%
Change
Market
Occupancy Market ADR
%
Change
Room Nights
Available
%
Change
%
Change
Market
RevPAR
Accommodated
Room Nights
For the purpose of demand analysis, the overall market is divided into individual
segments based on the nature of travel. Based on our fieldwork, area analysis, and
knowledge of the local lodging market, we estimate the 2019 distribution of
accommodated-room-night demand as follows.
Supply Conclusion
DEMAND
Demand Analysis
Using Market
Segmentation
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 73
FIGURE 4-24 BASE-YEAR ACCOMMODATED-ROOM-NIGHT DEMAND
2019 Marketwide
Market Segment
Commercial 108,875 59 %76,626 50 %
Group 30,382 17 30,651 20
Leisure 43,771 24 45,976 30
Total 183,028 100 %153,253 100 %
2021 Marketwide
Accommodated
Demand
Percentage
of Total
Accommodated
Demand
Percentage
of Total
FIGURE 4-25 MARKET-WIDE ACCOMMODATED-ROOM-NIGHT DEMAND
50%
20%
30%Commercial
Group
Leisure
In 2021, the market’s demand mix comprised commercial demand, with this
segment representing roughly 50% of the accommodated room nights in this
Cottage Grove submarket. The group segment comprised 20% of the total, with the
final portion leisure in nature, reflecting 30%.
Using the distribution of accommodated hotel demand as a starting point, we will
analyze the characteristics of each market segment in an effort to determine future
trends in room-night demand.
Commercial demand consists mainly of individual businesspeople passing through
the subject market or visiting area businesses, in addition to high-volume corporate
accounts generated by local firms. Brand loyalty (particularly frequent-traveler
programs), as well as location and convenience with respect to businesses and
amenities, influence lodging choices in this segment. Companies typically designate
hotels as “preferred” accommodations in return for more favorable rates, which are
Commercial Segment
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 74
discounted in proportion to the number of room nights produced by a commercial
client. Commercial demand is strongest Monday through Thursday nights, declines
significantly on Friday and Saturday, and increases somewhat on Sunday night. It is
relatively constant throughout the year, with marginal declines in late December
and during other holiday periods.
Primary commercial demand generators for this market typically include major
corporate offices in the area, such as 3M, Renewal by Andersen, Van Meter,
Marathon Petroleum, and Smead Manufacturing. Commercially driven demand
declined notably in 2020 and early 2021 given the COVID-19 pandemic. As
employees continue to return to offices and development continues in the market,
we expect commercial demand to surpass 2019 levels.
In the limited-service sector, group demand is most commonly generated by groups
that require ten or more room nights, but which need little to no meeting space
within the hotel. Examples of these groups include family reunions, sports teams,
and bus tours. In some markets, limited-service hotels may also accommodate
demand from groups or individuals attending events at the local convention center
or at one of the larger convention hotels in the area.
Social groups and coordinated bookings for youth sports teams have historically
generated group demand for local hotels; furthermore, corporate groups have
represented additional sources of demand. However, this type of demand was
limited in 2020 and early 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to area
recreational officials, sports groups returned to the market in 2021 and 2022, while
wedding business has increased significantly in 2022. Due to the lack of hotel rooms
in the market, many groups reportedly stay in nearby Woodbury. Demand within
this segment is forecast to continue to grow with the expansion of group facilities
and sports venues in the area.
Leisure demand consists of individuals and families spending time in an area or
passing through en route to other destinations. Travel purposes include sightseeing,
recreation, or visiting friends and relatives. Leisure demand also includes room
nights booked through Internet sites such as Expedia, Hotels.com, and Priceline;
however, leisure may not be the purpose of the stay. This demand may also include
business travelers and group and convention attendees who use these channels to
take advantage of any discounts that may be available on these sites. Leisure
demand is strongest on Friday and Saturday nights and all week during holiday
periods and the summer months. These peak periods represent the inverse of
commercial visitation trends, underscoring the stabilizing effect of capturing
weekend and summer tourist travel. Future leisure demand is related to the overall
economic health of the region and the nation. Trends showing changes in state and
Group Segment
Leisure Segment
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 75
regional unemployment and disposable personal income correlate strongly with
leisure travel levels.
Leisure demand for this highway-adjacent market is typically generated by
motorists on U.S. Highway 61/10 seeking a convenient stopover en route to other
destinations, as well as by those visiting friends and family in the area. We have
considered the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on leisure demand in our
forecasts. Leisure demand is a strong source of demand in this market and has been
recovering since the spring of 2021, noticeably more quickly than the other
segments.
The purpose of segmenting the lodging market is to define each major type of
demand, identify customer characteristics, and estimate future growth trends.
Starting with an analysis of the local area, three segments were defined as
representing the proposed subject hotel’s lodging market. Various types of
economic and demographic data were then evaluated to determine their propensity
to reflect changes in hotel demand. Based on this procedure, we forecast the
following average annual compounded market-segment growth rates.
FIGURE 4-26 AVERAGE ANNUAL COMPOUNDED MARKET-SEGMENT GROWTH RATES
Annual Growth Rate
Market Segment
Commercial 25.0 %5.0 %3.0 %5.0 %3.0 %0.0 %0.0 %
Group 15.0 7.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 0.0 0.0
Leisure 10.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0
Base Demand Growth 18.5 %5.4 %4.4 %5.1 %3.2 %0.0 %0.0 %
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
A table presented earlier in this section illustrated the accommodated-room-night
demand in the proposed subject hotel’s competitive market. Because this estimate
is based on historical occupancy levels, it includes only those hotel rooms that were
used by guests. Latent demand reflects potential room-night demand that has not
been realized by the existing competitive supply, further classified as either
unaccommodated demand or induced demand.
Unaccommodated demand refers to individuals who are unable to secure
accommodations in the market because all the local hotels are filled. These travelers
must defer their trips, settle for less desirable accommodations, or stay in
properties located outside the market area. Because this demand did not yield
occupied room nights, it is not included in the estimate of historical accommodated-
Base Demand Growth
Rates
Latent Demand
Unaccommodated
Demand
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 76
room-night demand. If additional lodging facilities are expected to enter the market,
it is reasonable to assume that these guests will be able to secure hotel rooms in the
future, and it is therefore necessary to quantify this demand.
Unaccommodated demand is further indicated if the market is at all seasonal, with
distinct high and low seasons; such seasonality indicates that although year-end
occupancy may not average in excess of 70.0%, the market may sell out certain
nights during the year. To evaluate the incidence of unaccommodated demand in
the market, we have reviewed the average occupancy by the night of the week for
the past twelve months for the competitive set, as reflected in the STR data. This is
set forth in the following table.
FIGURE 4-27 OCCUPANCY BY NIGHT OF THE WEEK
Month Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Total Month
Sep - 21 51.0 %57.2 %59.9 %60.0 %61.4 %81.5 %87.3 %65.1 %
Oct - 21 41.3 55.7 59.2 58.8 58.2 74.6 80.7 61.6
Nov - 21 34.5 46.6 49.8 50.5 49.1 53.5 55.8 48.5
Dec - 21 36.6 45.5 47.2 46.1 42.2 53.3 55.2 46.6
January 22 34.1 42.4 46.5 44.2 41.0 48.3 55.1 44.4
Feb - 22 36.6 49.2 52.9 49.2 45.2 54.8 66.5 50.6
Mar - 22 42.9 53.9 60.2 59.0 56.2 64.8 67.6 57.9
Apr - 22 47.8 63.5 70.6 67.4 62.8 68.5 74.6 65.5
May - 22 59.6 71.3 80.6 81.8 73.4 85.4 88.5 76.6
Jun - 22 66.5 81.8 87.0 84.0 82.4 93.0 94.4 84.1
Jul - 22 71.0 77.7 86.6 87.8 87.0 88.1 91.0 84.1
Aug - 22 66.1 81.5 87.7 85.3 82.6 89.1 91.1 83.5
Average 49.2 %60.5 %66.0 %64.7 %61.7 %71.2 %75.6 %64.1 %
Source: STR
The following table presents our estimate of unaccommodated demand in the
subject market.
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 77
FIGURE 4-28 UNACCOMMODATED DEMAND ESTIMATE
Market Segment
Commercial 108,875 0.0 %0
Group 30,382 4.6 1,391
Leisure 43,771 3.1 1,336
Total 183,028 1.5 %2,728
Unaccommodated
Demand
Unaccommodated
Room Night Demand
Accommodated Room
Night Demand
Accordingly, we have forecast unaccommodated demand equivalent to 1.5% of the
base-year demand, resulting from our analysis of monthly and weekly peak demand
and sell-out trends.
Induced demand represents the additional room nights that are expected to be
attracted to the market following the introduction of a new demand generator.
Situations that can result in induced demand include the opening of a new
manufacturing plant, the expansion of a convention center, or the addition of a new
hotel with a distinct chain affiliation or unique facilities. Although increases in
demand are expected in the local market, we have accounted for this growth in the
determination of market-segment growth rates rather than induced demand.
Based upon a review of the market dynamics in the proposed subject hotel’s
competitive environment, we have forecast growth rates for each market segment.
Using the calculated potential demand for the market, we have determined market-
wide accommodated demand based on the inherent limitations of demand
fluctuations and other factors in the market area.
The following table details our projection of lodging demand growth for the subject
market, including the total number of occupied room nights and any residual
unaccommodated demand in the market.
Induced Demand
Accommodated
Demand and Market-
wide Occupancy
November-2022 Supply and Demand Analysis
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 78
FIGURE 4-29 FORECAST OF MARKET OCCUPANCY
108,875 76,626 95,783 100,572 103,589 108,769 112,032 112,032 112,032
Growth Rate (29.6)%25.0 %5.0 %3.0 %5.0 %3.0 %0.0 %0.0 %
30,382 30,651 35,248 37,715 41,487 44,391 46,611 46,611 46,611
1,404 1,614 1,727 1,900 2,033 2,135 2,135 2,135
30,382 32,054 36,862 39,443 43,387 46,424 48,745 48,745 48,745
5.5 %15.0 %7.0 %10.0 %7.0 %5.0 %0.0 %0.0 %
43,771 45,976 50,573 53,102 54,695 56,883 58,021 58,021 58,021
1,404 1,544 1,621 1,670 1,737 1,771 1,771 1,771
43,771 47,379 52,117 54,723 56,365 58,619 59,792 59,792 59,792
8.2 %10.0 %5.0 %3.0 %4.0 %2.0 %0.0 %0.0 %
Base Demand 183,028 153,253 181,604 191,389 199,771 210,043 216,663 216,663 216,663
Unaccommodated Demand 2,807 3,158 3,348 3,570 3,769 3,906 3,906 3,906
Total Demand 183,028 156,060 184,762 194,738 203,341 213,812 220,569 220,569 220,569
less: Residual Demand 2,807 3,158 2,470 2,646 755 542 542 542
Total Accommodated Demand 183,028 153,253 181,604 192,268 200,695 213,057 220,027 220,027 220,027
Overall Demand Growth —46.4 %18.5 %5.9 %4.4 %6.2 %3.3 %0.0 %0.0 %
Market Mix
59.5 %50.0 %51.8 %51.6 %50.9 %50.9 %50.8 %50.8 %50.8 %
16.6 20.0 20.0 20.3 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.1 22.1
23.9 30.0 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.1
762 762 762 762 762 762 762 762 762
Proposed Subject Property 1 60 90 90 90
Confluence Hotel 2 39 58 58 58 58 58
Available Room Nights per Year 278,039 278,039 278,039 292,188 299,118 321,168 331,968 331,968 331,968
Nights per Year 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Total Supply 762 762 762 801 820 880 910 910 910
Rooms Supply Growth 0.0 %0.0 %0.0 %5.1 %2.4 %7.4 %3.4 %0.0 %0.0 %
Marketwide Occupancy 65.8 %55.1 %65.3 %65.8 %67.1 %66.3 %66.3 %66.3 %66.3 %
1 Opening in May 2025 of the 100% competitive, 90-room Proposed Subject Property
2 Opening in May 2023 of the 75% competitive, 77-room Confluence Hotel
Leisure
Existing Hotel Supply
Proposed Hotels
Totals
Commercial
Group
Total Demand
Growth Rate
Leisure
Base Demand
Unaccommodated Demand
Total Demand
Growth Rate
Unaccommodated Demand
2027 2028
Total Demand
Group
Base Demand
Commercial
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20262019
The defined competitive market of hotels experienced a sharp occupancy decline in
2020 and early 2021 because of the severe downturn in travel associated with the
COVID-19 pandemic. The recent recovery is expected to continue given the ongoing
return of many employees to offices, stronger levels of industrial development in
both Cottage Grove and Woodbury, and the return of larger group gatherings.
November-2022 Description of the Proposed Improvements
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 79
5. Description of the Proposed Improvements
The quality of a lodging facility's physical improvements has a direct influence on
marketability, attainable occupancy, and average room rate. The design and
functionality of the structure can also affect operating efficiency and overall
profitability. This section investigates the subject property's proposed physical
improvements and personal property in an effort to determine how they are
expected to contribute to attainable cash flows.
The City of Cottage Grove is looking into the development of a hotel and multiple
site locations are available for such development; however, a specific site had not
been chosen at the time of our report. We have analyzed the locations of the sites in
regard to their proximity to demand generators, retail establishments, and
entertainment venues. Based on interviews conducted with demand generators and
our evaluation of the market performance, it is our recommendation that the
proposed subject hotel operate as a midscale or upper-midscale limited-service
property, such as a Fairfield by Marriott, Hampton by Hilton, Holiday Inn Express,
or comparable brand. Given the existence of extended-stay demand in the market,
there is the potential for a dual branding of the subject hotel to include some
extended-stay rooms in the available inventory. Possible dual-branded hotel
combinations include Fairfield/TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Tru/Home2 Suites
by Hilton, and Avid/Candlewood Suites.
It is important to note that select-service and full-service hotels may be preferred
by some traveling corporate executives in the area, however, these type of hotels
would need to garner significantly higher average rates than what is currently being
achieved in order to justify the higher construction cost. Based on our demand
generator surveys conducted in the area, there was not a substantial number of
consumers willing to pay higher rates.
Based on our review the existing supply and demand in the Cottage Grove and
Woodbury markets, as well as considering the seasonality of the area, we would
recommend a room count of between 80 and 100 rooms. For the purpose of our
projections, we have positioned the proposed subject property as a 90 -unit
nationally-affiliated, upper midscale limited-service hotel. The following table
summarizes the facilities that we recommend be available at the proposed subject
hotel.
Project Overview
Summary of the
Recommended
Facilities
November-2022 Description of the Proposed Improvements
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 80
FIGURE 5-1 PROPOSED FACILITIES RECOMMENDATION
Guestroom Configuration
Queen/Queen 50%
King 50%
Total 80 to 100
Food & Beverage Facilities
Complimentary Breakfast Area
Indoor Meeting & Banquet Facilities
Meeting Room 50
Amenities & Services
Indoor Swimming Pool Lobby Workstation
Indoor Whirlpool Market Pantry
Fitness Room Guest Laundry Area
Capacity
Number of Units
Once guests enter the site, ample parking should be available on a surface lot or
subterranean parking lot underneath the hotel, depending on the constraints of the
site. Site improvements are expected to include freestanding signage at the main
entrance to the development, which should direct motorists to the hotel's main
entrance (additional signage is also anticipated to be placed on the exterior of the
building). We assume that all signage will adequately identify the property and meet
brand standards. Landscaping should allow for a positive guest impression and
competitive exterior appearance. Sidewalks should be present along the front
entrance and around the perimeter of the hotel. The hotel structure will likely
comprise one single building. The building components are expected to be normal
for a hotel of this type and should meet the standards for this market and selected
brand. We assume that all structural components will meet local building codes and
that no significant defaults will occur during construction that would impact the
future operating potential of the hotel or delay its assumed opening date.
The hotel’s complimentary breakfast dining area is anticipated to be located off the
lobby. Its size and layout should be appropriate for the hotel. The furnishings of the
space are expected to be of a similar style and finish as lobby and guestroom
furnishings. Based on market demand, and in consideration of brand standards, it is
our recommendation that the proposed hotel offer at least one meeting room with
a capacity for 50 people. This amount of meeting space should be appropriate for a
hotel of this type and would be assumed to meet brand standards. The hotel should
offer an indoor pool and whirlpool and a fitness room as recreational facilities. Other
Site Improvements and
Hotel Structure
Facilities
November-2022 Description of the Proposed Improvements
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 81
amenities are likely to include a lobby workstation or small business center, a
market pantry, and a guest laundry area. Overall, the supporting facilities should be
appropriate for a hotel of this type, and we assume that they will meet brand
standards.
A midscale and upper midscale hotel should feature standard and suite-style room
configurations, with guestrooms present on all levels of the property's proposed
single building. The standard guestrooms should offer typical amenities for this
product type, while the suites would be expected to feature a larger living area. If
the hotel is dual-branded, the extended-stay suites would offer fully equipped
kitchens and separated living and sleeping areas. The guestroom bathrooms would
be of a standard size, with a shower-in-tub or shower stall, commode, and single
sink with vanity area. Overall, the guestrooms should offer a competitive product
for this Cottage Grove neighborhood.
The hotel is expected to be served by the necessary back-of-the-house space,
including an in-house laundry facility, administrative offices, and a prep kitchen to
service the needs of the breakfast dining area. These spaces should be adequate for
a hotel of this type and should allow for the efficient operation of the property under
competent management.
We assume that the property will be built according to all pertinent codes and brand
standards. Moreover, we assume its construction will not create any environmental
hazards (such as mold) and that the property will fully comply with the Americans
with Disabilities Act.
Our analysis assumes that the hotel will require ongoing upgrades and periodic
renovations after its opening in order to maintain its competitive level in this
market and to remain compliant with brand standards. These costs should be
adequately funded by the forecasted reserve for replacement, as long as hotel staff
employs a successful, ongoing preventive-maintenance program.
Overall, the proposed subject property should offer a well-designed, functional
layout of support areas and guestrooms. All typical and market-appropriate
features and amenities are expected to be included in the hotel's design. We assume
that the building will be fully open and operational on the stipulated opening date
and will meet all local building codes and brand standards. Furthermore, we assume
that the hotel staff will be adequately trained to allow for a successful opening and
that pre-marketing efforts will have introduced the product to major local accounts
at least six months in advance of the opening date.
Guestrooms
Back-of-the-House,
ADA, and
Environmental
Capital Expenditures
Conclusion
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 82
6. Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Along with average rate results, the occupancy levels achieved by a hotel are the
foundation of the property's financial performance. Most of a lodging facility's other
revenue sources (such as food and beverage, other operated departments, and
miscellaneous income) are driven by the number of guests, and many expense levels
vary with occupancy. To a certain degree, occupancy attainment can be manipulated
by management. For example, hotel operators may choose to lower rates in an effort
to maximize occupancy. Our forecasts reflect an operating strategy that we believe
would be implemented by a typical, professional hotel management team to achieve
an optimal mix of occupancy and average rate.
The proposed subject hotel's forecasted market share and occupancy levels are
based upon its anticipated competitive position within the market, as quantified by
its penetration rate. The penetration rate is the ratio of a hotel's market share to its
fair share.
In the following table, the penetration rates attained by the primary competitors
and the aggregate secondary competitors are set forth for each segment for the base
year. As discussed previously in the Supply and Demand Analysis chapter of this
report, we are utilizing the market’s performance prior to the onset of the COVID-
19 pandemic as a benchmark for projecting a return to normalized performance.
FIGURE 6-1 HISTORICAL PENETRATION RATES OverallCommercialGroupLeisureProperty
Country Inn & Suites By Carlson Cottage Grove 119 %116 %300 %170 %
Wakota Inn & Suites 22 0 405 127
Secondary Competition 101 103 62 91OverallCommercialGroupLeisure
The Country Inn & Suites By Carlson Cottage Grove achieved the highest penetration
rate within the commercial and group segments, while the Wakota Inn & Suites led
the market with the highest leisure penetration rate.
Penetration Rate
Analysis
Base-Year Penetration
Rates by Market
Segment
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 83
Because the supply and demand balance for the competitive market is dynamic,
there is a circular relationship between the penetration factors of each hotel in the
market. The performance of individual new hotels has a direct effect upon the
aggregate performance of the market and, consequently, upon the calculated
penetration factor for each hotel in each market segment. The same is true when the
performance of existing hotels changes, either positively (following a
refurbishment, for example) or negatively (when a poorly maintained or marketed
hotel loses market share).
A hotel’s penetration factor is calculated as its achieved market share of demand
divided by its fair share of demand. Thus, if one hotel’s penetration performance
increases, thereby increasing its achieved market share, this leaves less demand
available in the market for the other hotels to capture, and the penetration
performance of one or more of those other hotels consequently declines (other
things remaining equal). This type of market share adjustment takes place every
time there is a change in supply or a change in the relative penetration performance
of one or more hotels in the competitive market. Our projections of penetration,
demand capture, and occupancy performance for the proposed subject hotel
account for these types of adjustments to market share within the defined
competitive market.
The proposed subject hotel's occupancy forecast is set forth as follows, with the
adjusted projected penetration rates used as a basis for calculating the amount of
captured market demand.
Forecast of Subject
Property’s Occupancy
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 84
FIGURE 6-2 FORECAST OF SUBJECT PROPERTY'S OCCUPANCY
Market Segment
Commercial
Demand 108,769 111,766 111,766 111,766
Market Share 7.2 %11.2 %11.2 %11.2 %
Capture 7,840 12,572 12,572 12,572
Penetration 105 %114 %114 %114 %
Group
Demand 46,017 48,620 48,620 48,620
Market Share 4.9 %8.0 %8.6 %8.6 %
Capture 2,243 3,901 4,169 4,169
Penetration 71 %81 %87 %87 %
Leisure
Demand 58,272 59,642 59,642 59,642
Market Share 7.2 %10.4 %10.4 %10.4 %
Capture 4,200 6,186 6,186 6,186
Penetration 105 %105 %105 %105 %
Total Room Nights Captured 14,283 22,659 22,927 22,927
Available Room Nights 22,050 32,850 32,850 32,850
Subject Occupancy 65 %69 %70 %70 %
Market-wide Available Room Nights 321,168 331,968 331,968 331,968
Fair Share 7 %10 %10 %10 %
Market-wide Occupied Room Nights 213,057 220,027 220,027 220,027
Market Share 7 %10 %10 %10 %
Market-wide Occupancy 66 %66 %66 %66 %
Total Penetration 98 %104 %105 %105 %
2025 2026 2027 2028
Within the commercial segment, the proposed subject hotel’s occupancy
penetration is positioned above the market-average level supported by the assumed
national franchise affiliation, age of the property, and proximity to the industrial
park. The proposed subject hotel's occupancy penetration in the meeting and group
segment is positioned appropriately within the range of existing competitors given
the proposed hotel's limited amount of anticipated meeting space. Within the
leisure segment, the proposed subject hotel's occupancy penetration is positioned
above the market-average level, largely attributed to the national affiliation,
proposed complimentary amenities, and proximity to U.S. Highway 10/61.
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 85
These positioned segment penetration rates result in the following market
segmentation forecast.
FIGURE 6-3 MARKET SEGMENTATION FORECAST – SUBJECT PROPERTY
Commercial 55 %55 %55 %55 %
Group 16 17 18 18
Leisure 29 27 27 27
Total 100 %100 %100 %100 %
2025 2026 2027 2028
FIGURE 6-4 STABILIZED MARKET SEGMENTATION – SUBJECT PROPERTY
55%
18%
27%
Commercial Group Leisure
Based on our analysis of the proposed subject hotel and market area, we have
selected a stabilized occupancy level of 70%. The stabilized occupancy is intended
to reflect the anticipated results of the property over its remaining economic life
given all changes in the life cycle of the hotel. Thus, the stabilized occupancy
excludes from consideration any abnormal relationship between supply and
demand, as well as any nonrecurring conditions that may result in unusually hi gh
or low occupancies. Although the proposed subject hotel may operate at
occupancies above this stabilized level, we believe it equally possible for new
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 86
competition and temporary economic downturns to force the occupancy below this
selected point of stability.
One of the most important considerations in estimating the feasibility of a lodging
facility is a supportable forecast of its attainable average rate (ADR), which is more
formally defined as the average rate per occupied room; ADR can be calculated by
dividing the total rooms revenue achieved during a specified period by the number
of rooms sold during the same period. The projected ADR and the anticipated
occupancy percentage are used to forecast rooms revenue, which in turn provides
the basis for estimating most other income and expense categories.
Although the ADR analysis presented here follows the occupancy projection, these
two statistics are highly correlated; in reality, one cannot project occupancy without
making specific assumptions regarding ADR. This relationship is best illustrated by
revenue per available room (RevPAR), which reflects a property's ability to
maximize rooms revenue. The following table summarizes the historical ADR and
RevPAR levels of the proposed subject hotel’s future primary competitors.
FIGURE 6-5 BASE-YEAR ADR AND REVPAR OF THE COMPETITORS
Property
Country Inn & Suites By Carlson Cottage
Grove $95 - $100 97.9 %65 - 70 %110 - 120 %$60 - $65 110 - 120 %
Wakota Inn & Suites 70 - 75 70.0 45 - 50 85 - 90 35 - 40 60 - 65
Average - Primary Competitors $91.39 91.3 %61.4 %111.3 %$56.08 101.7 %
Average - Secondary Competitors 101.67 101.6 54.1 98.1 55.00 99.7
Overall Average $100.06 100.0 %55.1 %100.0 %$55.15 100.0 %
.
Subject As If Stabilized (In 2021 Dollars)$105.00 104.9 %58.0 %105.3 %$60.94 110.5 %
Estimated 2021
Average Room
Rate
Average Room
Rate
Penetration
Rooms Revenue
Per Available
Room (RevPAR)
RevPAR
PenetrationOccupancy
Occupancy
Penetration
We have selected the rate position of $105.00, in base-year dollars (2021), for the
proposed subject hotel. We have positioned the proposed subject hotel's stabil ized
ADR in the 2021 base year in consideration of its new facility, strong brand
affiliation, and proximity to area demand generators. Average rates for this
competitive market are anticipated to continue the strengthening trend that began
in 2021, with a strong growth rate forecast for 2022 given the swift recovery from
Average Rate Analysis
Competitive Position
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 87
the particularly low ADRs in the first half of 2021, as indicated by the month -over-
month comparisons in the first half of 2022. ADR growth is then anticipated to
moderate downward in the following years. The projected recovery related to the
market's ADR growth in our forecast is based upon Cottage Grove's popularity as a
industrial business and sports team destination.
The following table presents the ADR forecast for the market and the proposed
subject hotel on a calendar-year basis, as well as the resulting ADR penetration level.
The proposed subject hotel’s projected ADR (as if stabilized) is then fiscalized to
correspond with the hotel’s anticipated date of opening for each forecast year.
FIGURE 6-6 ADR FORECAST – MARKET AND PROPOSED SUBJECT PROPERTY
Calendar Year 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Market ADR $112.33 $100.06 $110.07 $115.57 $119.04 $122.61 $126.28 $130.07 $133.98 $137.99
Projected Market ADR Growth Rate — 10.0%5.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
Proposed Subject Property ADR (As-If Stabilized)$105.00 $115.50 $121.28 $124.91 $128.66 $132.52 $136.50 $140.59 $144.81
ADR Growth Rate 10.0%5.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
Proposed Subject Stabilized ADR Penetration 105%105%105%105%105%105%105%105%105%
Fiscal Year 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30
Proposed Subject Property Average Rate $129.93 $133.83 $137.84 $141.98 $146.24
Opening Discount 5.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Average Rate After Discount $123.43 $133.83 $137.84 $141.98 $146.24
Real Average Rate Growth — 8.4%3.0%3.0%3.0%
Market ADR $123.82 $127.53 $131.36 $135.30 $139.36
Proposed Subject ADR Penetration (After Discount)100%105%105%105%105%
ADR Expressed in Base-Year Dollars Deflated @ Inflation Rate $104.50 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00 $110.00
Historical
The proposed subject hotel’s ADR penetration level is forecast to reach 105% by the
stabilized period, consistent with our stabilized ADR positioning. Based on our
review of the proposed improvements and the anticipated profile of the hotel
product and its operation, it is our opinion that the ADR penetration level should be
achievable with appropriate management and marketing. The proposed hotel’s
positioned stabilized ADR is projected to increase at the same rate as the overall
market’s ADR, prior to consideration of any ADR discounting during the hotel’s
ramp-up period. A discount of 5% has been applied to the stabilized room rate
projected for the first year of operation, as would be expected for a new property of
this type as it builds its reputation and becomes established in the market.
Note that our forecast of income and expense, which follows later in this report,
assumes the following underlying inflation rates.
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 88
FIGURE 6-7 INFLATION ASSUMPTIONS
2021 to 2022 6.0 %
2022 to 2023 4.0
2023 to 2024 3.0
2024 to 2025 3.0
2025 to 2026 3.0
Rate of Inflation
AssumedTimeframe
The following table sets forth our concluding forecast of the proposed subject
hotel’s occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, with corresponding penetration levels, for the
first projection year through the stabilized year of operation. The competitive
market’s historical and projected occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR levels are presented
for comparison, with the projections fiscalized to correspond with the proposed
subject hotel’s forecast, as appropriate.
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 89
FIGURE 6-8 COMPARISON OF HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED OCCUPANCY, ADR, AND REVPAR – PROPOSED SUBJECT PROPERTY AND MARKET
2019 2020 2021 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel
Occupancy — — — 66.2 %69.2 %69.8 %
Change in Points — — — — 3.1 0.5
Occupancy Penetration — — — 99.8 %104.5 %105.3 %
Average Rate $105.00 $117.40 $122.47 $126.15 $123.43 $133.83 $137.84
Change — 4.3 %3.0 %(2.2)%8.4 %3.0 %
Average Rate Penetration 104.9 %104.9 %104.9 %99.7 %104.9 %104.9 %
RevPAR — — — $81.66 $92.67 $96.20
Change — — — — 13.5 %3.8 %
RevPAR Penetration — — — 99.4 %109.6 %110.5 %
2019 2020 2021 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
Cottage Grove Submarket
Occupancy 65.8 %37.7 %55.1 %65.5 %66.2 %66.8 %66.3 %66.3 %66.3 %
Change in Points — (28.2)17.5 10.4 0.8 0.6 (0.5)(0.0)0.0
Average Rate $112.33 $90.80 $100.06 $111.87 $116.71 $120.21 $123.82 $127.53 $131.36
Change — (19.2)%10.2 %11.8 %4.3 %3.0 %3.0 %3.0 %3.0 %
RevPAR $73.95 $34.19 $55.15 $73.25 $77.29 $80.36 $82.11 $84.53 $87.06
Change — (53.8)%61.3 %32.8 %5.5 %4.0 %2.2 %2.9 %3.0 %
Historical
Projected
Projected
November-2022 Projection of Occupancy and Average Rate
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 90
The following occupancies and average rates will be used to project the proposed
subject hotel’s rooms revenue; this forecast reflects years beginning on May 1, 2025,
which correspond with our financial projections.
FIGURE 6-9 FORECASTS OF OCCUPANCY AND AVERAGE RATE
Year
2025/26 66 %$129.93 5.0 %$123.43
2026/27 69 133.83 0.0 133.83
2027/28 70 137.84 0.0 137.84
Occupancy
Average Rate
Before Discount Discount
Average Rate
After Discount
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 91
7. Projection of Income and Expense
In this chapter of our report, we have compiled a forecast of income and expense for
the proposed subject hotel. This forecast is based on the facilities program set forth
previously, as well as the occupancy and ADR forecast discussed previously.
The forecast of income and expense is expressed in current dollars for each year.
The stabilized year is intended to reflect the anticipated operating results of the
property over its remaining economic life given any or all applicable stages of build-
up, plateau, and decline in the life cycle of the hotel. Thus, income and expense
estimates from the stabilized year forward exclude from consideration any
abnormal relationship between supply and demand, as well as any nonrecurring
conditions that may result in unusual revenues or expenses. The ten-year period
reflects the typical holding period of large real estate assets such as hotels. In
addition, the ten-year period provides for the stabilization of income streams and
comparison of yields with alternate types of real estate. The forecasted income
streams reflect the future benefits of owning specific rights in income-producing
real estate.
In order to project future income and expense for the proposed subject hotel, we
have included a sample of individual comparable operating statements from our
database of hotel statistics. All financial data are presented according to the three
most common measures of industry performance: ratio to sales (RTS), amounts per
available room (PAR), and amounts per occupied room night (POR). These historical
income and expense statements will be used as benchmarks in our forthcoming
forecast of income and expense. The proposed subject hotel’s stabilized statement
of income and expense, deflated to 2021 dollars, is also presented.
Comparable Operating
Statements
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 92
FIGURE 7-1 COMPARABLE OPERATING STATEMENTS: RATIO TO SALES
Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 3 Comp 4 Comp 5 Subject
Number of Rooms: 60 to 80 80 to 110 80 to 110 70 to 100 80 to 110 90
Days Open: 365 365 365 365 365 365
Occupancy: 67%72%70%69%72%70%
Average Rate: $112 $112 $106 $108 $113 $110
RevPAR:$75 $81 $74 $74 $81 $77
REVENUE
Rooms 98.0 %98.6 %95.6 %98.8 %97.3 %98.3 %
Other Operated Departments 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.7 2.3 1.3
Miscellaneous Income 0.4 0.0 3.0 0.4 0.3 0.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES*
Rooms 25.1 22.1 23.8 29.5 25.1 24.5
Other Operated Departments 21.9 40.3 52.6 58.3 23.5 50.0
Total 25.0 22.3 23.5 29.5 25.0 24.8
DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 75.0 77.7 76.5 70.5 75.0 75.2
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES
Administrative & General 8.2 7.3 10.2 5.6 9.3 8.7
Info. and Telecom. Systems 0.8 1.3 2.5 1.0 2.0 1.4
Marketing 5.4 6.0 7.4 1.3 2.5 4.4
Franchise Fee 10.3 8.9 4.9 8.4 9.2 8.4
Property Operations & Maintenance 3.3 3.4 5.1 7.2 6.7 4.5
Utilities 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.4 3.1 4.4
Total 31.4 31.1 34.2 28.0 32.8 31.8
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 43.6 46.6 42.3 42.5 42.2 43.5
Management Fee 4.5 4.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 3.0
INCOME BEFORE NON-OPER. INC. & EXP.39.1 42.6 39.3 42.5 37.3 40.5
* Departmental expense ratios are expressed as a percentage of departmental revenues
Def. Stab $
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 93
FIGURE 7-2 COMPARABLE OPERATING STATEMENTS: AMOUNTS PER AVAILABLE ROOM
Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 3 Comp 4 Comp 5 Subject
Number of Rooms: 60 to 80 80 to 110 80 to 110 70 to 100 80 to 110 90
Days Open: 365 365 365 365 365 365
Occupancy: 67%72%70%69%72%70%
Average Rate: $112 $112 $106 $108 $113 $110
RevPAR:$75 $81 $74 $74 $81 $77
REVENUE
Rooms $27,484 $29,481 $27,031 $27,112 $29,409 $28,106
Other Operated Departments 449 408 378 200 709 383
Miscellaneous Income 99 3 860 120 100 102
Total 28,032 29,893 28,269 27,433 30,218 28,592
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES
Rooms 6,907 6,512 6,437 7,989 7,378 6,886
Other Operated Departments 98 164 199 116 166 192
Total 7,006 6,676 6,636 8,105 7,545 7,078
DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 21,026 23,217 21,632 19,328 22,673 21,514
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES
Administrative & General 2,294 2,185 2,897 1,549 2,815 2,500
Info. and Telecom. Systems 211 398 711 285 590 400
Marketing 1,511 1,800 2,100 360 770 1,250
Franchise Fee 2,886 2,657 1,383 2,293 2,768 2,389
Property Operations & Maintenance 914 1,008 1,428 1,985 2,019 1,300
Utilities 991 1,235 1,157 1,204 943 1,250
Total 8,807 9,284 9,676 7,675 9,904 9,089
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 12,219 13,933 11,956 11,653 12,769 12,425
Management Fee 1,262 1,195 848 0 1,511 858
INCOME BEFORE NON-OPER. INC. & EXP.10,957 12,738 11,108 11,653 11,259 11,567
Def. Stab $
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 94
FIGURE 7-3 COMPARABLE OPERATING STATEMENTS: AMOUNTS PER OCCUPIED ROOM
Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 3 Comp 4 Comp 5 Subject
Number of Rooms: 60 to 80 80 to 110 80 to 110 70 to 100 80 to 110 90
Days Open: 365 365 365 365 365 365
Occupancy: 67%72%70%69%72%70%
Average Rate: $112 $112 $106 $108 $113 $110
RevPAR:$75 $81 $74 $74 $81 $77
REVENUE
Rooms $111.89 $111.66 $106.19 $108.37 $112.50 $110.01
Other Operated Departments 1.83 1.55 1.49 0.80 2.71 1.50
Miscellaneous Income 0.40 0.01 3.38 0.48 0.38 0.40
Total 114.12 113.22 111.05 109.65 115.60 111.91
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES
Rooms 28.12 24.66 25.29 31.93 28.23 26.95
Other Operated Departments 0.40 0.62 0.78 0.46 0.64 0.75
Total 28.52 25.29 26.07 32.39 28.86 27.70
DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 85.60 87.93 84.98 77.25 86.74 84.20
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES
Administrative & General 9.34 8.27 11.38 6.19 10.77 9.78
Info. and Telecom. Systems 0.86 1.51 2.79 1.14 2.26 1.57
Marketing 6.15 6.82 8.25 1.44 2.95 4.89
Franchise Fee 11.75 10.06 5.43 9.16 10.59 9.35
Property Operations & Maintenance 3.72 3.82 5.61 7.93 7.72 5.09
Utilities 4.04 4.68 4.54 4.81 3.61 4.89
Total 35.85 35.16 38.01 30.68 37.89 35.58
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 49.74 52.77 46.97 46.57 48.85 48.63
Management Fee 5.14 4.53 3.33 0.00 5.78 3.36
INCOME BEFORE NON-OPER. INC. & EXP.44.61 48.25 43.64 46.57 43.07 45.27
Def. Stab $
The departmental income of the comparable properties ranged from 70.5% to
77.7% of total revenue. The comparable properties achieved a gross operating
profit ranging from 42.2% to 46.6% of total revenue. We will refer to the
comparable operating data in our discussion of each line item, which follows later
in this section of the report.
HVS uses a fixed and variable component model to project a lodging facility's
revenue and expense levels. This model is based on the premise that hotel revenues
and expenses have one component that is fixed and another that varies directly with
occupancy and facility usage. A projection can be made by taking a known level of
revenue or expense and calculating its fixed and variable components. The fixed
Fixed and Variable
Component Analysis
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 95
component is then increased in tandem with the underlying rate of inflation, while
the variable component is adjusted for a specific measure of volume such as total
revenue.
The actual forecast is derived by adjusting each year’s revenue and expense by the
amount fixed (the fixed expense multiplied by the inflated base-year amount) plus
the variable amount (the variable expense multiplied by the inflated base-year
amount) multiplied by the ratio of the projection year’s occupancy to the base-year
occupancy (in the case of departmental revenue and expense) or the ratio of the
projection year’s revenue to the base year’s revenue (in the case of undistributed
operating expenses). Fixed expenses remain fixed, increasing only with inflation.
Our discussion of the revenue and expense forecast in this report is based upon the
output derived from the fixed and variable model. This forecast of revenue and
expense is accomplished through a systematic approach, following the format of the
Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI). Each category of
revenue and expense is estimated separately and combined at the end in the final
statement of income and expense.
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 96
In consideration of the trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation factors
that directly influence lodging properties, projections set forth by economists
surveyed, and the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate, we have applied the
underlying inflation rates as reflected in the following table.
FIGURE 7-4 INFLATION ASSUMPTIONS
2021 to 2022 6.0 %
2022 to 2023 4.0
2023 to 2024 3.0
2024 to 2025 3.0
2025 to 2026 3.0
Rate of Inflation
AssumedTimeframe
Beyond the illustrated year, we have applied a 3.0% annual rate of growth to income
and expenses to reflect the longer-term expectation of asset appreciation by typical
investors. This position is based on interviews with numerous market participants
indicating a distinction in the expectations of near-term cost inflation (i.e., related
to labor and supplies) versus long-term income growth that drives appreciation.
Any exceptions to the application of the assumed underlying inflation and EBITDA
Less Replacement Reserve growth rates are discussed in our write-up of individual
income and expense items.
Based on an analysis that will be detailed throughout this section, we have
formulated a forecast of income and expense. The following table presents a
detailed forecast through the fifth projection year, including amounts per available
room and per occupied room. The second table illustrates our ten-year forecast of
income and expense, presented with a lesser degree of detail. The forecasts pertain
to years that begin on May 1, 2025, expressed in inflated dollars for each year.
Inflation and
Appreciation
Assumptions
Forecast of Revenue
and Expense
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 97
FIGURE 7-5 DETAILED FORECAST OF INCOME AND EXPENSE
2025/26 Begins May 2026/27 Stabilized 2028/29 2029/30
Number of Rooms:90 90 90 90 90
Occupancy:66%69%70%70%70%
Average Rate:$123.43 $133.83 $137.84 $141.98 $146.24
RevPAR:$81.47 $92.34 $96.49 $99.38 $102.37
Days Open:365 365 365 365 365
Occupied Rooms:21,681 %Gross PAR POR 22,667 %Gross PAR POR 22,995 %Gross PAR POR 22,995 %Gross PAR POR 22,995 %Gross PAR POR
OPERATING REVENUE
Rooms $2,676 98.2 %$29,733 $123.43 $3,033 98.3 %$33,700 $133.81 $3,170 98.3 %$35,222 $137.86 $3,265 98.3 %$36,278 $141.99 $3,363 98.3 %$37,367 $146.25
Other Operated Departments 38 1.4 423 1.75 42 1.4 464 1.84 43 1.3 480 1.88 45 1.3 495 1.94 46 1.3 509 1.99
Miscellaneous Income 11 0.4 119 0.49 11 0.4 124 0.49 12 0.4 128 0.50 12 0.4 132 0.52 12 0.4 136 0.53
Total Operating Revenues 2,725 100.0 30,275 125.67 3,086 100.0 34,288 136.14 3,225 100.0 35,831 140.24 3,321 100.0 36,904 144.44 3,421 100.0 38,012 148.77
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES *
Rooms 715 26.7 7,947 32.99 750 24.7 8,329 33.07 777 24.5 8,629 33.77 800 24.5 8,887 34.78 824 24.5 9,154 35.83
Other Operated Departments 20 52.5 222 0.92 21 50.2 233 0.92 22 50.0 240 0.94 22 50.0 247 0.97 23 50.0 255 1.00
Total Expenses 735 27.0 8,169 33.91 771 25.0 8,562 34.00 798 24.8 8,869 34.71 822 24.8 9,135 35.75 847 24.8 9,409 36.83
DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 1,989 73.0 22,105 91.76 2,315 75.0 25,726 102.15 2,427 75.2 26,962 105.53 2,499 75.2 27,770 108.69 2,574 75.2 28,603 111.95
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES
Administrative & General 259 9.5 2,876 11.94 273 8.8 3,031 12.03 282 8.7 3,133 12.26 290 8.7 3,227 12.63 299 8.7 3,323 13.01
Info & Telecom Systems 41 1.5 460 1.91 44 1.4 485 1.93 45 1.4 501 1.96 46 1.4 516 2.02 48 1.4 532 2.08
Marketing 142 5.2 1,582 6.57 136 4.4 1,515 6.02 141 4.4 1,566 6.13 145 4.4 1,613 6.31 150 4.4 1,662 6.50
Franchise Fee 227 8.3 2,527 10.49 258 8.4 2,865 11.37 269 8.4 2,994 11.72 278 8.4 3,084 12.07 286 8.4 3,176 12.43
Prop. Operations & Maint.128 4.7 1,421 5.90 142 4.6 1,576 6.26 147 4.5 1,629 6.38 151 4.5 1,678 6.57 156 4.5 1,728 6.76
Utilities 129 4.8 1,438 5.97 136 4.4 1,515 6.02 141 4.4 1,566 6.13 145 4.4 1,613 6.31 150 4.4 1,662 6.50
Total Expenses 927 34.0 10,305 42.78 989 32.0 10,986 43.62 1,025 31.8 11,390 44.58 1,056 31.8 11,731 45.91 1,087 31.8 12,083 47.29
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 1,062 39.0 11,800 48.98 1,327 43.0 14,739 58.52 1,402 43.4 15,572 60.95 1,443 43.4 16,039 62.77 1,487 43.4 16,520 64.66
Management Fee 82 3.0 908 3.77 93 3.0 1,029 4.08 97 3.0 1,075 4.21 100 3.0 1,107 4.33 103 3.0 1,140 4.46
INCOME BEFORE NON-OPR. INC. & EXP.980 36.0 10,892 45.21 1,234 40.0 13,711 54.44 1,305 40.4 14,497 56.74 1,344 40.4 14,931 58.44 1,384 40.4 15,380 60.19
NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSE
Property Taxes 121 4.4 1,344 5.58 249 8.1 2,769 10.99 257 8.0 2,852 11.16 264 8.0 2,937 11.50 272 8.0 3,025 11.84
Insurance 43 1.6 472 1.96 44 1.4 487 1.93 45 1.4 501 1.96 46 1.4 516 2.02 48 1.4 532 2.08
Total Expenses 163 6.0 1,816 7.54 293 9.5 3,255 12.93 302 9.4 3,353 13.12 311 9.4 3,453 13.52 320 9.4 3,557 13.92
EBITDA 817 30.0 9,076 37.67 941 30.5 10,456 41.52 1,003 31.0 11,145 43.62 1,033 31.0 11,478 44.92 1,064 31.0 11,823 46.27
Reserve for Replacement 54 2.0 605 2.51 93 3.0 1,029 4.08 129 4.0 1,433 5.61 133 4.0 1,476 5.78 137 4.0 1,520 5.95
EBITDA LESS RESERVE $762 28.0 %$8,470 $35.16 $848 27.5 %$9,427 $37.43 $874 27.0 %$9,711 $38.01 $900 27.0 %$10,002 $39.15 $927 27.0 %$10,302 $40.32
*Departmental expenses are expressed as a percentage of departmental revenues.
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 98
FIGURE 7-6 TEN-YEAR FORECAST OF INCOME AND EXPENSE
2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35
Number of Rooms:90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
Occupied Rooms:21,681 22,667 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995 22,995
Occupancy:66%69%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%
Average Rate:$123.43 % of $133.83 % of $137.84 % of $141.98 % of $146.24 % of $150.62 % of $155.14 % of $159.80 % of $164.59 % of $169.53
RevPAR:$81.47 Gross $92.34 Gross $96.49 Gross $99.38 Gross $102.37 Gross $105.44 Gross $108.60 Gross $111.86 Gross $115.21 Gross $118.67
OPERATING REVENUE
Rooms $2,676 98.2 %$3,033 98.3 %$3,170 98.3 %$3,265 98.3 %$3,363 98.3 %$3,464 98.3 %$3,568 98.3 %$3,675 98.3 %$3,785 98.3 %$3,898 98.3 %
Other Operated Departments 38 1.4 42 1.4 43 1.3 45 1.3 46 1.3 47 1.3 49 1.3 50 1.3 52 1.3 53 1.3
Miscellaneous Income 11 0.4 11 0.4 12 0.4 12 0.4 12 0.4 13 0.4 13 0.4 13 0.4 14 0.4 14 0.4
Total Operating Revenues 2,725 100.0 3,086 100.0 3,225 100.0 3,321 100.0 3,421 100.0 3,524 100.0 3,630 100.0 3,738 100.0 3,850 100.0 3,965 100.0
DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES *
Rooms 715 26.7 750 24.7 777 24.5 800 24.5 824 24.5 849 24.5 874 24.5 900 24.5 927 24.5 955 24.5
Other Operated Departments 20 52.5 21 50.2 22 50.0 22 50.0 23 50.0 24 50.0 24 50.0 25 50.0 26 50.0 27 50.0
Total Expenses 735 27.0 771 25.0 798 24.8 822 24.8 847 24.8 872 24.8 898 24.8 925 24.8 953 24.8 982 24.8
DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 1,989 73.0 2,315 75.0 2,427 75.2 2,499 75.2 2,574 75.2 2,652 75.2 2,731 75.2 2,813 75.2 2,897 75.2 2,984 75.2
UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES
Administrative & General 259 9.5 273 8.8 282 8.7 290 8.7 299 8.7 308 8.7 317 8.7 327 8.7 337 8.7 347 8.7
Info & Telecom Systems 41 1.5 44 1.4 45 1.4 46 1.4 48 1.4 49 1.4 51 1.4 52 1.4 54 1.4 55 1.4
Marketing 142 5.2 136 4.4 141 4.4 145 4.4 150 4.4 154 4.4 159 4.4 163 4.4 168 4.4 173 4.4
Franchise Fee 227 8.3 258 8.4 269 8.4 278 8.4 286 8.4 294 8.4 303 8.4 312 8.4 322 8.4 331 8.4
Prop. Operations & Maint.128 4.7 142 4.6 147 4.5 151 4.5 156 4.5 160 4.5 165 4.5 170 4.5 175 4.5 180 4.5
Utilities 129 4.8 136 4.4 141 4.4 145 4.4 150 4.4 154 4.4 159 4.4 163 4.4 168 4.4 173 4.4
Total Expenses 927 34.0 989 32.0 1,025 31.8 1,056 31.8 1,087 31.8 1,120 31.8 1,154 31.8 1,188 31.8 1,224 31.8 1,261 31.8
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT 1,062 39.0 1,327 43.0 1,402 43.4 1,443 43.4 1,487 43.4 1,532 43.4 1,578 43.4 1,625 43.4 1,673 43.4 1,723 43.4
Management Fee 82 3.0 93 3.0 97 3.0 100 3.0 103 3.0 106 3.0 109 3.0 112 3.0 116 3.0 119 3.0
INCOME BEFORE NON-OPR. INC. & EXP.980 36.0 1,234 40.0 1,305 40.4 1,344 40.4 1,384 40.4 1,426 40.4 1,469 40.4 1,513 40.4 1,558 40.4 1,604 40.4
NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSE
Property Taxes 121 4.4 249 8.1 257 8.0 264 8.0 272 8.0 280 8.0 289 8.0 298 8.0 306 8.0 316 8.0
Insurance 43 1.6 44 1.4 45 1.4 46 1.4 48 1.4 49 1.4 51 1.4 52 1.4 54 1.4 55 1.4
Total Expenses 163 6.0 293 9.5 302 9.4 311 9.4 320 9.4 330 9.4 340 9.4 350 9.4 360 9.4 371 9.4
EBITDA 817 30.0 941 30.5 1,003 31.0 1,033 31.0 1,064 31.0 1,096 31.0 1,129 31.0 1,163 31.0 1,198 31.0 1,233 31.0
Reserve for Replacement 54 2.0 93 3.0 129 4.0 133 4.0 137 4.0 141 4.0 145 4.0 150 4.0 154 4.0 159 4.0
EBITDA LESS RESERVE $762 28.0 %$848 27.5 %$874 27.0 %$900 27.0 %$927 27.0 %$955 27.0 %$984 27.0 %$1,013 27.0 %$1,044 27.0 %$1,074 27.0 %
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% of
Gross
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 99
The following description sets forth the basis for the forecast of income and expense.
We anticipate that it will take three years for the proposed subject hotel to reach a
stabilized level of operation. Each revenue and expense item has been forecast
based upon our review of the proposed subject hotel's operating budget and
comparable income and expense statements. The forecast is based upon fiscal years
beginning May 1, 2025, expressed in inflated dollars for each year.
Revenues associated with the proposed subject hotel's other operated department
and miscellaneous income category have been forecast to reflect the hotel's planned
facilities and amenities, including the market pantry and guest laundry room.
Expense levels fall within a range of reasonableness given the provided comparable
operating statements; furthermore, management fees are set forth in accordance
with our assumptions provided earlier in our report. In addition, we have reviewed
the franchise fees associated with a variety of midscale and upper-midscale brands
and have utilized average royalty and marketing assessment fees for the purpose of
our projections.
Rooms revenue is determined by two variables: occupancy and average rate (ADR).
We projected occupancy and ADR in a previous section of this report. The proposed
subject hotel is expected to stabilize at an occupancy level of 70% with an ADR of
$137.84 in 2027/28. Following the stabilized year, the proposed subject hotel’s ADR
is projected to increase along with the underlying rate of growth assigned to
EBITDA Less Replacement Reserve.
According to the USALI, other operated departments include any major or minor
operated department other than rooms, including market pantry sales, phone
charges, and meeting room rental.
FIGURE 7-7 OTHER OPERATED DEPARTMENTS REVENUE
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 1.6 %1.4 %1.3 %0.7 %2.3 %1.4 %1.3 %
Per Available Room $449 $408 $378 $200 $709 $423 $383
Per Occupied Room $1.83 $1.55 $1.49 $0.80 $2.71 $1.75 $1.50
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Deflated Stabilized
The miscellaneous income sources comprise those other than guestrooms, F&B, and
the other operated departments. Changes in this revenue item through the
projection period result from the application of the underlying inflation rate and
projected changes in occupancy.
Rooms Revenue
Other Operated
Departments Revenue
Miscellaneous Income
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 100
FIGURE 7-8 MISCELLANEOUS INCOME
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 0.4 %0.0 %3.0 %0.4 %0.3 %0.4 %0.4 %
Per Available Room $99 $3 $860 $120 $100 $119 $102
Per Occupied Room $0.40 $0.01 $3.38 $0.48 $0.38 $0.49 $0.40
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Deflated Stabilized
Rooms expense consists of items related to the sale and upkeep of gues trooms and
public space. Salaries, wages, and employee benefits account for a substantial
portion of this category. Although payroll varies somewhat with occupancy, and
managers can generally scale the level of service staff on hand to meet an expected
occupancy level, much of a hotel's payroll is fixed. A base level of front desk
personnel, housekeepers, and supervisors must be maintained at all times. As a
result, salaries, wages, and employee benefits are only moderately sensitive to
changes in occupancy.
Commissions and reservations are usually based on room sales and, thus, are highly
sensitive to changes in occupancy and ADR. While guest supplies vary 100% with
occupancy, linens and other operating expenses are only slightly affected by volume.
FIGURE 7-9 ROOMS EXPENSE
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 25.1 %22.1 %23.8 %29.5 %25.1 %26.7 %24.5 %
Per Available Room $6,907 $6,512 $6,437 $7,989 $7,378 $7,947 $6,886
Per Occupied Room $28.12 $24.66 $25.29 $31.93 $28.23 $32.99 $26.95
Deflated Stabilized
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Other operated departments expense includes all expenses reflected in the
summary statements for the divisions associated in these categories, as discussed
previously in this chapter.
Rooms Expense
Other Operated
Departments Expense
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 101
FIGURE 7-10 OTHER OPERATED DEPARTMENTS EXPENSE
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 21.9 %40.3 %52.6 %58.3 %23.5 %52.5 %50.0 %
Per Available Room $98 $164 $199 $116 $166 $222 $192
Per Occupied Room $0.40 $0.62 $0.78 $0.46 $0.64 $0.92 $0.75
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Deflated Stabilized
Administrative and general expense includes the salaries and wages of all
administrative personnel who are not directly associated with a particular
department. Expense items related to the management and operation of the
property are also allocated to this category.
Most administrative and general expenses are relatively fixed. The exceptions are
cash overages and shortages; commissions on credit card charges; provision for
doubtful accounts, which are moderately affected by the number of transactions or
total revenue; and salaries, wages, and benefits, which are very slightly influenced
by volume.
FIGURE 7-11 ADMINISTRATIVE AND GENERAL EXPENSE
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 8.2 %7.3 %10.2 %5.6 %9.3 %9.5 %8.7 %
Per Available Room $2,294 $2,185 $2,897 $1,549 $2,815 $2,876 $2,500
Per Occupied Room $9.34 $8.27 $11.38 $6.19 $10.77 $11.94 $9.78
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Deflated Stabilized
Information and telecommunications systems expense consists of all costs
associated with a hotel’s technology infrastructure. This includes the costs of cell
phones, administrative call and Internet services, and complimentary call and
Internet services. Expenses in this category are typically organized by type of
technology or the area benefiting from the technology solution.
Marketing expense consists of all costs associated with advertising, sales, and
promotion; these activities are intended to attract and retain customers. Marketing
can be used to create an image, develop customer awareness, and stimulate
patronage of a property's various facilities.
The marketing category is unique in that all expense items, with the exception of
fees and commissions, are totally controlled by management. Most hotel operators
Administrative and
General Expense
Information and
Telecommunications
Systems Expense
Marketing Expense
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 102
establish an annual marketing budget that sets forth all planned expenditures. If the
budget is followed, total marketing expenses can be projected accurately.
Marketing expenditures are unusual because, although there is a lag period before
results are realized, the benefits are often extended over a long period. Depending
on the type and scope of the advertising and promotion program implemented, the
lag time can be as short as a few weeks or as long as several years. However, the
favorable results of an effective marketing campaign tend to linger, and a property
often enjoys the benefits of concentrated sales efforts for many months.
FIGURE 7-12 MARKETING EXPENSE
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 5.4 %6.0 %7.4 %1.3 %2.5 %5.2 %4.4 %
Per Available Room $1,511 $1,800 $2,100 $360 $770 $1,582 $1,250
Per Occupied Room $6.15 $6.82 $8.25 $1.44 $2.95 $6.57 $4.89
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Deflated Stabilized
We recommend that the proposed subject property operate as a midscale or upper-
midscale limited-service hotel. For the purpose of this report, we have assumed that
the property would be affiliated with a nationally recognized hotel brand, such as a
Fairfield by Marriott, Hampton by Hilton, Holiday Inn Express, or another
comparable limited-service brand. However, a specific franchise affiliation was not
finalized at the time of this study. While a specific franchise has not been selected,
we have reviewed the royalty and marketing assessments of the referenced brands
and utilized an average level for the purpose of this analysis.
Marketing expense and franchise fees are often analyzed in total because hotels may
account for some components of franchise expense in the marketing expense
category. The subject property’s total marketing and franchise expense has been
forecast at 12.8% of total revenue on a stabilized basis; the comparable operating
statements show a range from 9.7% to 15.7% of total revenue.
Property operations and maintenance expense is another expense category that is
largely controlled by management. Except for repairs that are necessary to keep the
facility open and prevent damage (e.g., plumbing, heating, and electrical items),
most maintenance can be deferred for varying lengths of time.
Maintenance is an accumulating expense. If management elects to postpone
performing a required repair, the expenditure has not been eliminated, only
deferred until a later date. A lodging facility that operates with a lower-than-normal
Franchise Fee
Property Operations
and Maintenance
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 103
maintenance budget is likely to accumulate a considerable amount of deferred
maintenance.
The age of a lodging facility has a strong influence on the required level of
maintenance. A new or thoroughly renovated property is protected for several years
by modern equipment and manufacturers' warranties. However, as a hostelry
grows older, maintenance expenses escalate. A well-organized preventive
maintenance system often helps delay deterioration, but most facilities face higher
property operations and maintenance costs each year, regardless of the occupancy
trend. The quality of initial construction can also have a direct impact on future
maintenance requirements. The use of high-quality building materials and
construction methods generally reduces the need for maintenance expenditures
over the long term.
Changes in this expense item through the projection period result from the
application of the underlying inflation rate and projected changes in occupancy.
FIGURE 7-13 PROPERTY OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE EXPENSE
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 3.3 %3.4 %5.1 %7.2 %6.7 %4.7 %4.5 %
Per Available Room $914 $1,008 $1,428 $1,985 $2,019 $1,421 $1,300
Per Occupied Room $3.72 $3.82 $5.61 $7.93 $7.72 $5.90 $5.09
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Deflated Stabilized
The utilities consumption of a lodging facility takes several forms, including water
and space heating, air conditioning, lighting, cooking fuel, and other miscellaneous
power requirements. The most common sources of hotel utilities are electricity,
natural gas, fuel oil, and steam. This category also includes the cost of water service.
Total energy cost depends on the source and quantity of fuel used. Electricity tends
to be the most expensive source, followed by oil and gas. Although all hotels
consume a sizable amount of electricity, many properties supplement their utility
requirements with less expensive sources, such as gas and oil, for heating and
cooking. The changes in this utilities line item through the projection period are a
result of the application of the underlying inflation rate and projected changes in
occupancy.
Utilities Expense
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 104
FIGURE 7-14 UTILITIES EXPENSE
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 3.5 %4.1 %4.1 %4.4 %3.1 %4.8 %4.4 %
Per Available Room $991 $1,235 $1,157 $1,204 $943 $1,438 $1,250
Per Occupied Room $4.04 $4.68 $4.54 $4.81 $3.61 $5.97 $4.89
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Deflated Stabilized
Management expense consists of the fees paid to the managing agent contracted to
operate the property. Some companies provide management services and a brand-
name affiliation (first-tier management company), while others provide
management services alone (second-tier management company). Some
management contracts specify only a base fee (usually a percentage of total
revenue), while others call for both a base fee and an incentive fee (usually a
percentage of defined profit). Basic hotel management fees are often based on a
percentage of total revenue, which means they have no fixed component. While base
fees typically range from 2.0% to 4.0% of total revenue, incentive fees are deal
specific and often are calculated as a percentage of income available after debt
service and, in some cases, after a preferred return on equity. Total management
fees for the proposed subject hotel have been forecast at 3.0% of total revenue.
Property (or ad valorem) tax is one of the primary revenue sources of
municipalities. Based on the concept that the tax burden should be distributed in
proportion to the value of all properties within a taxing jurisdiction, a system of
assessments is established. Theoretically, the assessed value placed on each parcel
bears a definite relationship to market value, so properties with equal market values
will have similar assessments and properties with higher and lower values will have
proportionately larger and smaller assessments.
Depending on the taxing policy of the municipality, property taxes can be based on
the value of the real property or the value of the personal property and the real
property. We have based our estimate of the proposed subject property's market
value (for tax purposes) on an analysis of assessments of comparable hotel
properties in the local municipality.
Management Fee
Property Taxes
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 105
FIGURE 7-15 COUNTY-ASSESSED VALUE OF COMPARABLE HOTELS
Hotel
Year
Open
Country Inn & Suites By Carlson Cottage Grove 2002 $1,054,800 $1,948,700 $3,003,500
Wakota Inn & Suites 1990 376,300 424,700 801,000
Sheraton Saint Paul Woodbury 2008 2,102,100 11,097,900 13,200,000
Courtyard by Marriott Saint Paul Woodbury 2018 2,798,100 8,289,900 11,088,000
Hampton by Hilton Minneapolis Saint Paul Woodbury 1996 462,000 3,469,800 3,931,800
Hilton Garden Inn Saint Paul Oakdale 2005 1,624,200 6,820,500 8,444,700
Hampton by Hilton Saint Paul Oakdale Woodbury 2017 1,268,900 6,381,200 7,650,100
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Saint Paul Woodbury 1997 977,100 6,165,700 7,142,800
Assessments per Room
Country Inn & Suites By Carlson Cottage Grove 76 $13,879 $25,641 $39,520
Wakota Inn & Suites 31 12,139 13,700 25,839
Sheraton Saint Paul Woodbury 150 14,014 73,986 88,000
Courtyard by Marriott Saint Paul Woodbury 120 23,318 69,083 92,400
Hampton by Hilton Minneapolis Saint Paul Woodbury 63 7,333 55,076 62,410
Hilton Garden Inn Saint Paul Oakdale 116 14,002 58,797 72,799
Hampton by Hilton Saint Paul Oakdale Woodbury 100 12,689 63,812 76,501
Holiday Inn Express & Suites Saint Paul Woodbury 100 9,771 61,657 71,428
Positioned Subject - Per Room 90 $14,000 $64,000 $78,000
Positioned Subject - Total $1,260,000 $5,760,000 $7,020,000
Source: Washington County Assessor
Improvements TotalLand
# of Rms
We have positioned the future assessment levels of the subject site and proposed
improvements based upon the illustrated comparable data. We have positioned the
land assessment closest to the Country Inn & Suites and the improvements
assessment closest to the Hampton by Hilton properties, the Courtyard by Marriott,
and the Holiday Inn Express in Woodbury because of the similarities in quality level
and amenities; overall, the positioned assessments are well supported by the
market data.
Tax rates are based on the city and county budgets, which change annually. The
most recent tax rate in this jurisdiction was reported at 33.13530. The following
table shows changes in the tax rate during the last several years.
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 106
FIGURE 7-16 COUNTY TAX RATES (BASED ON COUNTRY INN & SUITES)
Real Property
Year
2021 33.35505
2022 33.13530
Source: Washingon County
Millage Rate
Based on comparable assessments and the tax rate information, the following table
illustrates the proposed subject property's projected property tax expense levels.
FIGURE 7-17 PROJECTED PROPERTY TAX BURDEN (BASE YEAR)
Land
Positioned (Assessed Value)$1,260,000 $5,760,000 $7,020,000
Equalization Rate 1.00000
Millage Rate 33.13530
Tax Burden as of Current Assessment Year $232,610
Real Property
Improvements Total
FIGURE 7-18 PROJECTED PROPERTY TAX EXPENSE – REAL PROPERTY
Taxes
Year Payable
Positioned $232,610 — $232,610
2025/26 $232,610 4.0 %50 %$120,957
2026/27 241,914 3.0 100 $249,172
2027/28 249,172 3.0 100 $256,647
2028/29 256,647 3.0 100 $264,346
2029/30 264,346 3.0 100 $272,277
2030/31 272,277 3.0 100 $280,445
2031/32 280,445 3.0 100 $288,858
Real Property
Real Tax Burden
(Positioned Prior to
Base Rate of Tax % of Positioned
Tax BurdenBurden Increase
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 107
The insurance expense category consists of the cost of insuring the hotel and its
contents against damage or destruction by fire, weather, sprinkler leakage, boiler
explosion, plate glass breakage, and so forth. General insurance costs also include
premiums relating to liability, fidelity, and theft coverage.
Insurance rates are based on many factors, including building design and
construction, fire detection and extinguishing equipment, fire district, distance from
the firehouse, and the area's fire experience. Insurance expen ses do not vary with
occupancy.
FIGURE 7-19 INSURANCE EXPENSE
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025/26
Percentage of Revenue 1.3 %1.2 %1.0 %1.9 %1.0 %1.6 %1.4 %
Per Available Room $375 $359 $269 $519 $315 $472 $400
Per Occupied Room $1.53 $1.36 $1.06 $2.07 $1.20 $1.96 $1.57
Deflated Stabilized
Comparable Operating Statements Proposed Subject Property Forecast
Furniture, fixtures, and equipment (FF&E) are essential to the operation of a lodging
facility, and their quality often influences a property's class. This category includes
all non-real estate items that are capitalized, rather than expensed. The FF&E of a
hotel are exposed to heavy use and must be replaced at regular intervals. The useful
life of these items is determined by their quality, durability, and the amount of guest
traffic and use.
Periodic replacement of FF&E is essential to maintain the quality, image, and
income-producing potential of a lodging facility. Because capitalized expenditures
are not included in the operating statement but affect an owner's cash flow, a
forecast of income and expense should reflect these expenses in the form of an
appropriate reserve for replacement.
The International Society of Hospitality Consultants (ISHC) oversees a major
industry-sponsored study of the capital expenditure requirements for full-
service/luxury, select-service, and extended-stay hotels. The most recent study was
published in 2014.6 Historical capital expenditures of well-maintained hotels were
investigated through the compilation of data provided by most of the major hotel
companies in the United States. A prospective analysis of future capital expenditure
6 The International Society of Hotel Consultants, CapEx 2014, A Study of Capital
Expenditure in the U.S. Hotel Industry.
Insurance Expense
Reserve for
Replacement
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 108
requirements was also performed based upon the cost to replace short- and long-
lived building components over a hotel's economic life. The study showed that the
capital expenditure requirements for hotels vary significantly from year to year and
depend upon both the actual and effective ages of a property. The results of this
study showed that hotel lenders and investors are requiring reserves for
replacement ranging from 4.0% to 5.0% of total revenue.
Based upon the results of our analysis, our review of the proposed subject asset, and
current industry norms, a reserve for replacement equal to 4.0% of total revenues
has been factored into our forecast of revenue and expense for funding the periodic
replacement of the proposed subject property's FF&E. This amount has been
ramped up during the initial projection period.
Projected total revenue, gross operating profit, and EBITDA Less Replacement
Reserve are set forth in the following table.
FIGURE 7-20 FORECAST OF REVENUE AND EXPENSE CONCLUSION
Year Total
%
Change Total
%
Change Total % Change
Projected 2025/26 $2,725,000 — $1,062,000 — 39.0 %$762,000 — 28.0 %
2026/27 3,086,000 13.2 %1,327,000 25.0 %43.0 848,000 11.3 %27.5
2027/28 3,225,000 4.5 1,402,000 5.7 43.4 874,000 3.1 27.0
2028/29 3,321,000 3.0 1,443,000 2.9 43.4 900,000 3.0 27.0
2029/30 3,421,000 3.0 1,487,000 3.0 43.4 927,000 3.0 27.0
Total Revenue Gross Operating Profit House
Profit
Ratio
EBITDA Less Replacement Reserve
As a % of
Ttl Rev
In conclusion, our analysis reflects a profitable operation, with EBITDA less
replacement reserve expected to total 31.0% of total revenue by the stabilized year.
The stabilized total revenue comprises primarily rooms, with a secondary portion
derived from other income sources. On the cost side, departmental expenses total
24.8% of revenue by the stabilized year, while undistributed operating expenses
total 31.8% of total revenues; this assumes that the property will be operated
competently by a well-known hotel operator. After a 3.0% of total revenues
management fee, 9.4% of total revenues in fixed expenses, and a 4.0% reserve for
replacement, an EBITDA less replacement reserves (net income) ratio of 27.0% is
forecast by the stabilized year.
The return on investment (ROI) can be defined as the future benefits of an income-
producing property relative to its acquisition or construction cost. The first step in
performing an ROI analysis would be to determine the amount to be initially
Forecast of Revenue
and Expense
Conclusion
November-2022 Projection of Income and Expense
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 109
invested, and for a proposed property, this amount is most likely to be the
development cost of the hotel. Based on the total development cost, the investor
would utilize an ROI analysis to determine if the future cash flow from a current
cash outlay meets their own investment criteria and at what level above or below
this amount such an outlay exceeds or fails to meet these criteria.
November-2022 Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 110
8. Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
1. This report is set forth as a market study of the proposed subject hotel; this
is not an appraisal report.
2. This report is to be used in whole and not in part.
3. No responsibility is assumed for matters of a legal nature, nor do we render
any opinion as to title, which is assumed marketable and free of any deed
restrictions and easements. The property is evaluated as though free and
clear unless otherwise stated.
4. We assume that there are no hidden or unapparent conditions of the sub-
soil or structures, such as underground storage tanks, that would affect the
property’s development potential. No responsibility is assumed for these
conditions or for any engineering that may be required to discover them.
5. We have not considered the presence of potentially hazardous materials or
any form of toxic waste on the project site. We are not qualified to detect
hazardous substances and urge the client to retain an expert in this field if
desired.
6. The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) became effective on January 26,
1992. We have assumed the proposed hotel would be designed and
constructed to be in full compliance with the ADA.
7. We have made no survey of the site, and we assume no responsibility in
connection with such matters. Sketches, photographs, maps, and other
exhibits are included to assist the reader in visualizing the property. It is
assumed that the use of the described real estate will be within the
boundaries of the property described, and that no encroachment will exist.
8. All information, financial operating statements, estimates, and opinions
obtained from parties not employed by TS Worldwide, LLC are assumed true
and correct. We can assume no liability resulting from misinformation.
9. Unless noted, we assume that there are no encroachments, zoning
violations, or building violations encumbering the subject site.
10. The property is assumed to be in full compliance with all applicable federal,
state, local, and private codes, laws, consents, licenses, and regulations
(including the appropriate liquor license if applicable), and that all licenses,
permits, certificates, franchises, and so forth can be freely renewed or
transferred to a purchaser.
November-2022 Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 111
11. All mortgages, liens, encumbrances, leases, and servitudes have been
disregarded unless specified otherwise.
12. None of this material may be reproduced in any form without our written
permission, and the report cannot be disseminated to the public through
advertising, public relations, news, sales, or other media.
13. We are not required to give testimony or attendance in court because of this
analysis without previous arrangements and shall do so only when our
standard per-diem fees and travel costs have been paid prior to the
appearance.
14. If the reader is making a fiduciary or individual investment decision and has
any questions concerning the material presented in this report, it is
recommended that the reader contact us.
15. We take no responsibility for any events or circumstances that take place
subsequent to the date of our field inspection.
16. The quality of a lodging facility's onsite management has a direct effect on a
property's economic viability. The financial forecasts presented in this
analysis assume responsible ownership and competent management. Any
departure from this assumption may have a significant impact on the
projected operating results.
17. The financial analysis presented in this report is based upon assumptions,
estimates, and evaluations of the market conditions in the local and national
economy, which may be subject to sharp rises and declines. Over the
projection period considered in our analysis, wages and other operating
expenses may increase or decrease because of market volatility and
economic forces outside the control of the hotel’s management. We assume
that the price of hotel rooms, food, beverages, and other sources of revenue
to the hotel will be adjusted to offset any increases or decreases in related
costs. We do not warrant that our estimates will be attained, but they have
been developed based upon information obtained during the course of our
market research and are intended to reflect the expectations of a typical
hotel investor as of the stated date of the report.
18. This analysis assumes continuation of all Internal Revenue Service tax code
provisions as stated or interpreted on either the date of this analysis or the
date of our field inspection, whichever occurs first.
19. Many of the figures presented in this report were generated using
sophisticated computer models that make calculations based on numbers
carried out to three or more decimal places. In the interest of simplicity,
most numbers have been rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. Thus,
these figures may be subject to small rounding errors.
November-2022 Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
Proposed Cottage Grove Hotel – Cottage Grove, Minnesota 112
20. It is agreed that our liability to the client is limited to the amount of the fee
paid as liquidated damages. Our responsibility is limited to the client; the
use of this report by third parties shall be solely at the risk of the client
and/or third parties. The use of this report is also subject to the terms and
conditions set forth in our engagement letter with the client.
21. Evaluating and comprising financial forecasts for hotels is both a science and
an art. Although this analysis employs various mathematical calculations to
provide projections, the final forecasts are subjective and may be influenced
by our experience and other factors not specifically set forth in this report.
22. This study was prepared by TS Worldwide, LLC. All opinions,
recommendations, and conclusions expressed during the course of this
assignment are rendered by the staff of TS Worldwide, LLC as employees,
rather than as individuals.
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
1
Tanya Pierson, MAI
HVS CONSULTING AND VALUATION SERVICES
Minneapolis, Minnesota
TABLE MOUNTAIN INN
Golden, Colorado
RICHFIELD HOTEL MANAGEMENT
Denver, Colorado
HOTEL BOULDERADO
Boulder, Colorado
CAESARS TAHOE
Stateline, Nevada
LA QUINTA MOTOR INN
Denver, Colorado
BSBA – Hotel, Restaurant and Tourism Management, University of Denver
Certified General Appraiser Classes Completed:
NCRE: 200 - Basic Appraisal Principles and Procedures
NCRE: 201 - Basic Appraisal Applications
NCRE: 208 - Standards and Ethics
NCRE: 203 - Small Residential Income Properties
NCRE: 211 - Certified Residential: Reporting,
Reviewing, and Analyzing Appraisals
NCRE: 215 - Appraisal Principles and Advanced
Applications
NCRE: 216 - Income Capitalization
NCRE: 219 - Commercial Case Studies
EMPLOYMENT
1994 to present
1993 - 1994
1993
1992 - 1993
1991
1990
EDUCATION AND OTHER
TRAINING
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
2
Continuing Education Courses:
Real Estate Finance
Course 400: National USPAP Update
Appraisal Loss Prevention Seminar
Market Valuation & Financial Considerations
Developing & Growing an Appraisal Practice
Capitalization Rate Models
Feasibility, Market Value & Investment Timing
Using Your HP12C
Small Hotel/Motel Valuation
Internet Search Strategies for Appraisers
Valuation of Detrimental Conditions in Real Estate
Analyzing Operating Expenses
What Commercial Clients Would Like Appraisers to Know
Course 550: Advanced Applications
Course 530: Advanced Sales Comparison and Cost Approach
Course 510: Advanced Income Capitalization
General Appraiser Market Analysis and HBU
Advanced Applications
Business Practices and Ethics
Report Writing
Risky Business: Ways to Minimize Your Liability
Mortgage Fraud – Protect Yourself
Perspectives from Commercial Review Appraisers
Ad Valorem Tax Consultation
Introduction to Legal Description
Fundamentals of Separating Real, Personal Property, and Intangible Business Assets
CA Law Class
Appraisal Applications of Regression Analysis
Land and Site Valuation
Appraisal of Assisted Living Facilities
Advanced Hotel Appraising - Full Service Hotels
Avoiding Mortgage Fraud for Appraisers
Expert Witness for Commercial Appraisers
Litigation Appraising - Specialized Topics
Appraisal of Land Subject to Ground Lease
Discounted Cash Flow
Forecasting Revenue
Small Hotel/Motel Valuation
Cool Tools
Sexual Harassment
Commercial Land Valuation
Intro to Expert Witness
Biennial USPAP Updates
Appraisal Institute Comprehensive Exam – Passed
EDUCATION AND OTHER
TRAINING (CONTINUED)
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
3
Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin
“HVS Market Pulse - Minneapolis-St. Paul,” February 2021
“The Impact of COVID-19 on Hotel Values,” April 2020
“HVS Market Pulse: Minneapolis-St. Paul Lodging Market Perceptions,” February 2020
“HVS Market Pulse: Minneapolis – After the Super Bowl,” co-authored with Justin Westad,
February 2019
“Market Pulse: Minneapolis - St. Paul, MN,” co-authored with Justin Westad and Justin
Kaminski, April 2017
“HVS Perspectives: Center Stage at ALIS,” co-authored with Kasia Russell and Jessica White,
February 2017
“Twin Cities Hotel Boom,” November 2016 – Mentioned
“Downtown Minneapolis’ Hotel Boom,” September 2016 – Mentioned
“In Focus: Minneapolis, MN,” July 2016
“Seven Key Takeaways – ALIS Conference,” February 2016
“Hospitality in 2016: After a record year, will occupancy dip?” January 2016 – Mentioned
“Twin Cities Operators Are Bullish on 2016,” January 2016 – Mentioned
“In Focus: Minneapolis/St. Paul,” December 2015
“Five Key Takeaways – ALIS Conference The Americas Lodging Investment Summit,” co-
authored with Susan Furbay and Brett Russell, February 2015
“Market Intelligence Report 2013: Minneapolis,” August 2013
“HVS Market Intelligence Report: Minneapolis, Minnesota,” co-authored with Tess Federer,
June 2012
”Grand Hotel for Sale as Wirth Tests the Waters,” October 2, 2009
STATE CERTIFICATIONS
ARTICLES AND MENTIONS
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
Twin Cities Business
Twin Cities Business
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
Minneapolis/St. Paul
Business Journal
Minneapolis/St. Paul
Business Journal
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
HVS Journal
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Business Journal
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
4
“Seven Hotels Retain U.S. 36 Plans,” October 3, 2008
“Foreclosure won't shutter Holiday Inn Parkside,” March 25, 2005
"Major U.S. Transactions-Mid-Year 2004," August 2004
"Telecommunication Evolution and its Impact on the Hotel Industry," January 2003
“US 36 Hotel Market Diversifies,” April 18, 2001
“Too Many Rooms: Lessons to Learn from Salt Lake City,” August 8, 2000 – Feature Article
"Why Hotel Markets Crash – Salt Lake City as a Blueprint," September 2000
"From Lodging to Senior Housing – A Natural Trend?" September 1998
"The South Pacific - Paradise Lost or Found?" June 1997
Speaker at Minnesota Association of Assessing Officers Summer Conference – May 2019
Speaker at Minnesota Association of Assessing Officers Fall Conference – September 2016
Panelist at WoodSpring Hotels Annual Conference – April 2016
Panelist at Hunter Hotel Investment Conference – March 2013
Panelist at the Lodging Conference – September 2010
HVS Valuation Summit, Minneapolis – June 2012, May 2013
Minnesota Real Estate Journal, Hotel & Hospitality Conference – September 2012
Guest Speaker, HRTM 3500: Lodging III - University of Denver – October 1999, February
2000, November 2000
Guest Speaker, TOM 3400: Hotel Management and Opportunities- University of Colorado –
January 2004, September 2004
Guest Speaker, HRTM 4440: Hotel Asset Management – University of Denver – May 2004
Guest Speaker, Lodging Valuation – University of Denver – May 2007, May 2008, May
2009, May 2010
Contributing Editor, Hotel Investments Handbook, 1997
Denver Business Journal
Missoulian
The Hotel Valuation Journal
The Hotel Valuation Journal
Colorado Real Estate
Journal
e-hospitality.com
The Hotel Valuation Journal
The Hotel Valuation Journal
The Hotel Valuation Journal
CONFERENCE
ENGAGEMENTS
EDITING AND LECTURE
ASSIGNMENTS
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
5
Appraisal Institute – Designated Member (MAI)
Boulder, Colorado CVB – Advisory Board, 2008 – 2011
Eastern Carolina University – Hospitality Management Advisory Board, 2008 – 2011
University of Denver MBA Curriculum Review Committee, 2000
University of Denver Visiting Committee, 1997/98
University of Denver HRTM Society
Eta Sigma Delta
PROFESSIONAL
AFFILIATIONS
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
6
EXAMPLES OF PROPERTIES APPRAISED
OR EVALUATED
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
Portfolio of 650 Extended StayAmerica
Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 365 La Quinta-Owned
Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 11 Boykin-Owned Hotels,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 48 Hotels, Various
Locations (Due Diligence)
Portfolio of 57 RFS-Owned Hotels,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 34 Athletic Clubs Facilities,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 13 Suburban Lodges,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 21 Equity Inns Properties,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 10 Marriott Properties,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 6 Summerfield Suites,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 5 Heart of America
Properties, Various Locations
Multiple Portfolios of Summit-Owned
Properties, Various Locations
Portfolio of 8 La Quinta Properties,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 11 Real Estate Capital
Partners-Owned Properties,
California
Portfolio of 26 Summit-Owned
Properties, Various Locations
Portfolio of 11 Tharaldson-Managed
Properties, Various Locations
Portfolio of 5 LNR-Owned Properties,
Various Locations
Multiple Portfolios of Highland-Owned
Properties, Various Locations
Portfolio of 8 Hyatt Place Properties,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 5 DoubleTree Hotels,
Tennessee
Portfolio of 160 Tharaldson-Managed
Properties, Various Locations
Portfolio of 28 Hotels for Citibank,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 9 Suburban and
Candlewood Hotels, Virginia and
North Carolina
Portfolio of 99 Marriott and Hilton
Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 27 Hotels for Citibank,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 56 Value Place Hotels,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 5 Hampton Inn and
Residence Inn Properties, Various
Locations
Portfolio of 10 Limited- and Select-
Service Hotels for Voya Investment
Management, Various Locations
Portfolio of 6 Hotels for Summit,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 15 Marriott and Hilton
Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 8 Hotels for Credit Suisse,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 7 Hotels for Bank of
America, Various Locations
Portfolio of 38 Hyatt Place & Hyatt
House Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 87 Marriott- and Hilton-
Branded Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 28 Marriott- and Hilton-
Branded Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 93 Limited- and Select-
Service Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 3 Hotels, El Reno,
Oklahoma
Portfolio of 2 Hotels, Wichita, Kansas
Portfolio of 4 Hotels, Western U.S.
Portfolio of 8 TownePlace Suites
Hotels, Various Locations
Portfolio of 22 Limited-Service or
Extended-Stay Hotels, Various
Locations
Portfolio of 89 Hotels for Tharaldson,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 106 Motel 6 Hotels,
Various Locations
Portfolio of 4 Hotels for Guggenheim
Partners, Eastern U.S.
Portfolio of 7 Marriott- and Hilton-
Branded Hotels, Northeastern U.S.
ALABAMA
Proposed Hotel, Auburn
Hilton, Birmingham
Hilton Garden Inn Lakeshore,
Birmingham
Hilton Garden Inn Liberty Park,
Birmingham
Holiday Inn, Birmingham
Hyatt Place Birmingham Inverness,
Birmingham
Marriott, Birmingham
Hampton Inn, Dothan
Holiday Inn, Dothan
Holiday Inn Express, Gadsden
Embassy Suites, Huntsville
Proposed 4-Star Hotel, Huntsville
Value Place, Huntsville
Value Place, Madison
Clarion Hotel, Mobile
Proposed USA Hotel, Mobile
Proposed Hotel, Montgomery
Proposed Hotel, Prattville
Holiday Inn, Sheffield
ALASKA
Hampton Inn, Anchorage
Holiday Inn, Anchorage
Marriott, Anchorage
Proposed Embassy Suites, Anchorage
Proposed Staybridge Suites,
Anchorage
Hampton Inn & Suites, Fairbanks
Proposed Candlewood Suites,
Fairbanks
Proposed Hampton Inn, Fairbanks
Westmark Baranoff Hotel, Juneau
ARIZONA
Carefree Resort, Carefree
Proposed Hampton Inn, Carefree
Courtyard by Marriott, Chandler
Hampton Inn, Chandler
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
7
Homewood Suites, Chandler
Proposed Home2 Suites, Chandler
Proposed Hotel Site, Chandler
AmeriSuites, Flagstaff
Courtyard by Marriott, Flagstaff
Embassy Suites, Flagstaff
Howard Johnson, Flagstaff
SpringHill Suites, Flagstaff
CopperWynd Resort and Club,
Fountain Hills
Proposed Home2 Suites, Glendale
Proposed Hotel, Glendale
Renaissance, Glendale
Holiday Inn Express, Goodyear
Hampton Inn & Suites, Goodyear
Proposed Hotel Site, Goodyear
Residence Inn by Marriott, Mesa
Proposed Hotel, Oro Valley
Proposed Hampton Inn & Suites, Page
Arizona Biltmore Resort & Spa,
Phoenix
Crowne Plaza, Phoenix
Embassy Suites, Phoenix
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Phoenix
Hampton Inn, Phoenix
Holiday Inn West, Phoenix
Homewood Suites, Phoenix
Hyatt Place Phoenix North, Phoenix
Proposed Hampton Inn, Phoenix
Proposed Hotel Palomar, Phoenix
Proposed Hotel Site, Phoenix
Radisson, Phoenix
Market Area Section, Phoenix/Tempe
Holiday Inn Express, Prescott
DoubleTree Resort, Scottsdale
Hilton Resort, Scottsdale
Proposed Fairfield Suites by Marriott,
Scottsdale
Proposed Staybridge Suites, Scottsdale
Sanctuary on Camelback Mountain,
Scottsdale
Scottsdale Market Area Overview,
Scottsdale
TownePlace Suites by Marriott,
Scottsdale
L’Auberge de Sedona, Sedona
Hampton Inn, Sedona
Four Points Tempe (Conversion to
Moxy), Tempe
Proposed Residence Inn, Tempe
Wyndham Buttes Resort, Tempe
Embassy Suites Airport, Tucson
JW Marriott Starr Pass Resort, Tucson
Sheraton El Conquistador, Tucson
Proposed Comfort Suites, Tucson
Ramada Palo Verde, Tucson
Residence Inn by Marriott, Tucson
ARKANSAS
Four Points by Sheraton, Bakersfield
Courtyard by Marriott, Bentonville
Courtyard by Marriott, Fort Smith
Embassy Suites, Hot Springs
Fairfield Inn, Little Rock
Holiday Inn Presidential Conference
Center, Little Rock
Residence Inn by Marriott, Little Rock
Embassy Suites, Rogers
Proposed Marriott, West Little Rock
CALIFORNIA
Sheraton Disneyland, Anaheim
Embassy Suites, Arcadia
Proposed Hilton Garden, Arcadia
Proposed SpringHill Suites by
Marriott, Arcadia
W Aspen, Aspen
Claremont Resort & Spa, Berkeley
Radisson Hotel, Brisbane
Hampton Inn & Suites, Camarillo
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Carlsbad
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Carlsbad
Courtyard by Marriott, Century City
DoubleTree Hotel, Commerce
Hardage Hotel, Emeryville
Staybridge Suites Sacramento Folsom,
Folsom
Courtyard by Marriott, Fresno
Piccadilly Airport Hotel, Fresno
Hampton Inn, Goleta
Holiday Inn Express, Hesperia
Clarion Roosevelt, Hollywood
La Quinta Resort & Club, La Quinta
Courtyard by Marriott, Livermore
Hotel D’Orsay, Long Beach
Four Points LAX, Los Angeles
Marriott LAX, Los Angeles
Proposed AC by Marriott Hotel, Los
Angeles
The Standard Hotel, Los Angeles
Beverly Heritage Hotel, Milpitas
Sheraton Hotel, Milpitas
DoubleTree Hotel, Mission Valley
Courtyard, Modesto
Silverado Resort, Napa
Courtyard by Marriott, Oyster Point
Residence Inn by Marriott, Oyster
Point
Holiday Inn Express, Palm Desert
Homewood Suites, Palm Desert
Renaissance Hotel, Palm Springs
Four Points by Sheraton, Pleasanton
Sierra Suites, Pleasanton
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Pleasanton
Wyndham Garden, Pleasanton
Hampton Inn & Suites, Poway
Hyatt Place Sacramento Rancho
Cordova, Rancho Cordova
Homewood Suites, Rancho Cucamonga
Holiday Inn, Riverside
DoubleTree, Sacramento
Residence Inn by Marriott, Sacramento
Proposed Hotel, San Bernardino
DoubleTree, San Diego
Hardage Hotel, San Diego
Hilton Harbor Island, San Diego
Holiday Inn Mission Valley Stadium,
San Diego
Towne & Country Resort & Conference
Center, San Diego
Westin, San Diego
Wyndham Emerald Plaza, San Diego
Hilton Fisherman’s Wharf, San
Francisco
Proposed Le Meridien San Jose, San
Jose
Holiday Inn Express Fisherman’s
Wharf, San Francisco
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
8
Hotel Rex, San Francisco
Courtyard by Marriott, San Luis
Obispo
Courtyard, Santa Rosa
Radisson Valley Center Hotel, Sherman
Oaks
Sonoma Valley Inn, Sonoma
Four Points SFO, South San Francisco
Maple Tree Inn, Sunnyvale
Sheraton, Sunnyvale
Holiday Inn Express, Temecula
Courtyard by Marriott, Thousand Oaks
TownePlace Suites by Marriott,
Thousand Oaks
Residence Inn by Marriott, Torrance
Courtyard, Vacaville
Holiday Inn, Ventura
Ventura Beach Marriott, Ventura
Wyndham Bel Age, West Hollywood
Marriott Warner Center, Woodland
Hills
COLORADO
Denver Marriott, Aurora
DoubleTree Denver Southeast, Aurora
Fairfield Inn & Suites by Marriott
Denver Aurora Southlands, Aurora
Hilton Garden Inn DIA, Aurora
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Aurora
Proposed Residence Inn Gateway Park,
Aurora
Proposed Woolley Classic Suites,
Aurora
Sleep Inn, Aurora
Suburban Lodge, Aurora
Hyatt Regency Beaver Creek, Avon
Proposed Hotel, Avon
Proposed Timeshare, Avon
Ritz-Carlton Bachelor Gulch, Avon
Proposed TBD Hotel, Basalt
Alps Boulder Canyon Inn, Boulder
Clarion Harvest House, Boulder
Proposed Hotel
Renovation/Expansion, Boulder
Proposed Marriott, Boulder
Proposed St. Julien Hotel, Boulder
Aloft Arista, Broomfield
Interlocken Club & Spa, Broomfield
Omni Interlocken Resort, Broomfield
Proposed Interlocken Resort,
Broomfield
Proposed NYLO, Broomfield
Proposed Summerfield Suites,
Broomfield
Proposed Aloft, Broomfield
Proposed Holiday Inn, Clifton
Academy Hotel, Colorado Springs
Best Western Academy, Colorado
Springs
DoubleTree, Colorado Springs
DoubleTree by Hilton World Arena,
Colorado Springs
Embassy Suites, Colorado Springs
Hampton Inn, Colorado Springs
Holiday Inn Colorado Springs Airport,
Colorado Springs
Holiday Inn Express, Colorado Springs
Homewood Suites, Colorado Springs
Proposed Brighton Gardens, Colorado
Springs
Proposed Homewood Suites by Hilton,
Colorado Springs
Proposed Hotel, Colorado Springs
Proposed Mining Exchange Hotel,
Colorado Springs
Radisson, Colorado Springs
WoodSpring Suites, Colorado Springs
Holiday Inn, Craig
Grande Butte Hotel, Crested Butte
Irwin Mountain Lodge, Crested Butte
MountainLair Hotel, Crested Butte
Sheraton Hotel, Crested Butte
Imperial Hotel & Casino, Cripple Creek
Colorado Athletic Club Downtown,
Denver
Colorado Athletic Club Leetsdale,
Denver
Courtyard by Marriott, Denver
DoubleTree DTC, Denver
Embassy Suites, Denver
Four Points by Sheraton, Denver
Hampton Inn, Denver
Hampton Inn DIA, Denver
Hampton Inn & Suites, Denver
Hilton DTC, Denver
Hilton Garden Inn Downtown, Denver
Holiday Inn Central, Denver
Holiday Inn Express, Denver
International Airport
JW Marriott, Denver
Proposed Best Western Plus Gateway
Park, Denver
Proposed Boutique Hotel – Sloan Lake,
Denver
Proposed Cherry Creek Hotel, Denver
Proposed Denver Athletic Club Hotel,
Denver
Proposed Executive Tower Hotel,
Denver
Proposed Full-Service Hotel, Denver
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Denver
Proposed Hotel at DU, Denver
Proposed JW Marriott Hotel, Denver
Proposed Limited-Service DTC Hotel,
Denver
Proposed Metro State Hotel, Denver
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Denver
Proposed Union Station Hotel, Denver
Ritz-Carlton Downtown, Denver
Wyndham DTC, Denver
Days Inn, Denver International Airport
Ramada Limited, Denver International
Airport
Proposed Sheraton, Denver
International Airport
Proposed Jackson Creek Ranch,
Douglas County
Holiday Inn & Suites, Durango
Proposed Holiday Inn, Durango
AmericInn, Eagle
24 Hour Fitness, Englewood
Colorado Athletic Club Inverness,
Englewood
Courtyard by Marriott, Englewood
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Englewood
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Englewood
Residence Inn by Marriott, Englewood
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
9
Sheraton Denver Tech Center,
Englewood
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Englewood
The Stanley Hotel, Estes Park
Comfort Suites Golden West on
Evergreen Parkway, Evergreen
Courtyard by Marriott, Fort Collins
Homewood Suites, Fort Collins
Marriott, Fort Collins,
Residence Inn by Marriott, Fort Collins
Holiday Inn, Frisco
Hampton Inn & Suites, Glendale
Staybridge Suites, Glendale
Courtyard by Marriott, Glenwood
Springs
Residence Inn by Marriott, Glenwood
Springs
Fairfield Inn/AmericInn, Golden
Golden Hotel, Golden
Hampton Inn, Golden
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Golden
Ramada Inn Denver West, Golden
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Golden
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Golden
Table Mountain Inn, Golden
Adams Mark, Grand Junction
Comfort Inn, Grand Junction
Hilton Hotel, Grand Junction
Proposed Candlewood Suites, Grand
Junction
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Grand Junction
Proposed Hampton Inn, Grand
Junction
Proposed Holiday Inn, Grand Junction
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Grand Junction
Proposed Hotel, Grand Junction
Colorado Athletic Club DTC,
Greenwood Village
Greenwood Athletic Club, Greenwood
Village
Proposed Westin Hotel, Greenwood
Village
AmericInn, Lakewood
Hampton Inn, Lakewood
Proposed Brighton Gardens,
Lakewood
Sheraton Denver West, Lakewood
Holiday Inn Express, Littleton
Proposed Residence Inn, Littleton
Proposed Staybridge Suites, Littleton
Element Hotel, Lone Tree
Proposed Hotel, Longmont
Raintree Plaza, Longmont
Comfort Inn, Louisville
Courtyard by Marriott, Louisville
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Louisville
Hampton Inn, Louisville
Embassy Suites, Loveland
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Loveland
Rock ‘N River Property, Lyons
Holiday Inn Express, Montrose
Ramada Limited, Northglenn
Hampton Inn, Parker
Marriott Convention Center, Pueblo
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Sterling
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Superior
Proposed Hotel, Superior
Proposed Westin, Telluride
Peaks at Telluride, Telluride
The Owners Club, Telluride
Rosewood Resort, Telluride
Radisson Graystone Castle, Thornton
Chateau Vail, Vail
Lodge at Vail, Vail
Vail Village Inn, Vail
Proposed Vail Plaza, Vail
Proposed Four Seasons, Vail
Vail Cascade Hotel & Club, Vail
Courtyard by Marriott Denver North
Westminster, Westminster
Proposed Bradford Homesuites,
Westminster
Proposed Comfort Suites, Westminster
Proposed Hyatt Place, Westminster
Proposed SpringHill Suites by
Marriott, Westminster
Proposed Westin, Westminster
Westin Hotel, Westminster
Proposed Limited-Service Hotel,
Woodland Park
Proposed Select-Service Hotel,
Woodland Park
CONNECTICUT
Radisson, Enfield
Holiday Inn, East Hartford
Courtyard by Marriott, Orange
DoubleTree Hotel, Windsor Locks
Marriott Airport, Windsor
DELAWARE
Residence Inn by Marriott, Wilmington
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Kimpton Banneker Hotel
Proposed Embassy Suites
Proposed Residence Inn - Navy Yards
FLORIDA
TownePlace Suites by Marriott
Orlando Altamonte
Springs/Maitland, Altamonte
Springs
Proposed WoodSpring Suites, Belle
Isle
Boca Athletic Club, Boca Raton
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Brandon
Courtyard by Marriott, Brandon
Mayfair House, Coconut Grove
Holiday Inn, Coral Gables
Hyatt, Coral Gables
DoubleTree Hotel, Fort Lauderdale
DoubleTree Guest Suites, Fort
Lauderdale
Hampton Inn, Fort Lauderdale
Marriott Sanibel Harbour Resort, Fort
Myers
Sanibel Harbour Resort & Spa, Ft.
Myers
Holiday Inn, Fort Pierce
Aloft, Jacksonville
Hampton Inn, Jacksonville
Holiday Inn Sunspree, Jacksonville
Beach
Proposed Aloft, Jacksonville
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
10
Residence Inn by Marriott, Jacksonville
Westin, Key Largo
Courtyard by Marriott, Key West
Holiday Inn, Key West
Super 8, Lantana
Hilton Walt Disney Work, Lake Buena
Vista
Sheraton, Maitland
Holiday Inn, Melbourne
Doral Golf Resort & Spa, Miami
DoubleTree Club Hotel, Miami
Hilton Garden Inn Miami Airport,
Miami
Hilton Miami Downtown, Miami
Homewood Suites Miami Airport,
Miami
Proposed Aloft South Beach, Miami
TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Miami
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Miami
Grand Beach Hotel, Miami Beach
TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Miami
Lakes
Proposed Hilton, Naples
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Naples
DoubleTree Orlando at SeaWorld,
Orlando
Hyatt Place Convention Center,
Orlando
Hyatt Place Universal, Orlando
Residence Inn by Marriott, Orlando
Radisson Parkway Resort, Orlando
Holiday Inn Express, Pensacola
Holiday Inn University Mall, Pensacola
Hampton Inn, Pensacola
Sheraton Suites, Plantation
Hyatt Regency, Sarasota
SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Sarasota
Proposed Radisson Hotel, Tallahassee
Hampton Inn Ybor City, Tampa
Harbour Island Athletic Club, Tampa
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites,
Tampa
Crowne Plaza, West Palm Beach
Residence Inn by Marriott, West Palm
Beach
Sheraton, West Palm Beach
Holiday Inn, Winter Haven
GEORGIA
Hampton Inn, Alpharetta
Marriott, Alpharetta
Residence Inn by Marriott, Alpharetta
Courtyard by Marriott, Atlanta
Courtyard Vinings, Atlanta
Crowne Plaza Ravinia, Atlanta
Days Inn, Atlanta
DoubleTree Guest Suites, Atlanta
Georgian Terrace, Atlanta
Hilton Suites Perimeter, Atlanta
Hyatt Place Airport, Atlanta
Marriott Hotel, Atlanta
Northeast Athletic Club, Atlanta
Residence Inn by Marriott, Atlanta
Ritz-Carlton Downtown, Atlanta
Sheraton Colony Square, Atlanta
Sheraton Downtown, Atlanta
Westin Perimeter North, Atlanta
Wyndham Vining Inn, Atlanta
Days Inn Downtown, Augusta
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Augusta
Holiday Inn Gordon Hwy, Augusta
Holiday Inn West, Augusta
Holiday Inn, Brunswick
Courtyard by Marriott, Buckhead
Residence Inn by Marriott, Buckhead
Sierra Suites, Buckhead
Hampton Inn, Buford
SpringHill Suites, Buford
Hilton Garden Inn, Duluth
Holiday Inn Gwinnett Center, Duluth
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Duluth
Proposed Hotel, Duluth
Residence Inn by Marriott, Duluth
Hyatt Place Atlanta Airport, East Point
Best Western Plus Fairburn Atlanta
Southwest, Fairburn
Residence Inn by Marriott, Gwinnett
Holiday Inn, Jekyll Island
Fairfield Inn, Kennesaw
SpringHill Suites, Kennesaw
Emerald Pointe Resort, Lake Lanier
Islands
SpringHill Suites, Lithia Springs
Comfort Inn, Marietta
Holiday Inn & Suites, Marietta
Hyatt Regency, Marietta
Wyndham Peachtree Center,
Peachtree City
Courtyard by Marriott, Savannah
Hyatt Regency, Savannah
Radisson Hotel, Savannah
Westin, Savannah
Holiday Inn, Valdosta
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Valdosta
Ramada Inn, Warner Robins
HAWAII
Fairmont Orchid, Big Island
Ritz-Carlton Kapalua, Maui
Royal Hawaiian, Oahu
Sheraton Moana Surfrider, Oahu
Sheraton Princess, Oahu
IDAHO
DoubleTree Hotel, Boise
Holiday Inn, Boise
Red Lion Downtowner, Boise
Proposed Cambria Suites, Boise
Red Lion Riverside, Boise
Shilo Inn, Boise
SpringHill Suites, Boise
The Grove Hotel, Boise
Holiday Inn Express, Coeur d’Alene
Shilo Inn, Idaho Falls
Proposed Resort, McCall
Proposed Home2 Suites by Hilton,
Pocatello
AmericInn, Twin Falls
ILLINOIS
Holiday Inn, Arlington Heights
Sheraton Chicago Northwest,
Arlington Heights
Courtyard by Marriott, Bedford Park
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Bedford Park
Holiday Inn Express, Bedford Park
Proposed Holiday Inn Select, Bedford
Park
Hampton Inn, Bloomington
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
11
Proposed Hyatt Place, Bloomington
Proposed JW Marriott, Bloomington
SpringHill Suites, Burr Ridge
Crowne Plaza Avenue Hotel & Office
Building, Chicago
Hilton Suites, Chicago
Hyatt Printers Row, Chicago
Proposed Hampton Inn Loyola,
Chicago
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Chicago
Ritz Carlton, Chicago
Sheraton Hotel & Towers, Chicago
Wyndham NW, Chicago
Holiday Inn, Crystal Lake
DoubleTree Club Hotel, Des Plaines
Holiday Inn, Downers Grove
Embassy Suites, East Peoria
Proposed Staybridge Suites by Holiday
Inn, Elgin
SpringHill Suites, Elmhurst
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Forsyth
Holiday Inn, Glen Ellyn
DoubleTree Hotel, Glenview
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Glenview
Proposed Hotel, Gurnee
Hyatt Place, Hoffman Estates
Marriott Northwest, Hoffman Estates
Holiday Inn, Itasca
Wyndham NW Chicago, Itasca
SpringHill Suites by Marriott Chicago
Lincolnshire, Lincolnshire
Wyndham, Lisle
Wyndham Garden, Naperville
Marriott, Normal
Proposed Radisson, Normal
Proposed Hotel, Peoria
Holiday Inn, Rolling Meadows
Proposed Radisson Hotel, Schaumburg
Wyndham Garden, Schaumburg
DoubleTree Hotel, Skokie
Proposed Residence Inn, Wilmette
Wyndham Garden, Wood Dale
INDIANA
Holiday Inn, Bloomington
Hyatt Place, Bloomington
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Bloomington
Proposed Staybridge Suites, Carmel
Renaissance, Carmel
Residence Inn by Marriott, Fishers
Courtyard by Marriott Downtown,
Fort Wayne
Hilton, Fort Wayne
Holiday Inn, Fort Wayne
Proposed Courtyard, Fort Wayne
Proposed Hotel, Fort Wayne
Staybridge Suites by Holiday Inn, Fort
Wayne
French Lick Resort, French Lick
AmeriSuites, Indianapolis
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Indianapolis
Hampton Inn, Indianapolis
Hyatt Regency, Indianapolis
Proposed Boutique Hotel, Indianapolis
Proposed Canopy Hotel, Indianapolis
Proposed Convention Hotel,
Indianapolis
Proposed Independent Hotel,
Indianapolis
Proposed InterContinental
Indianapolis Downtown,
Indianapolis
Residence Inn by Marriott,
Indianapolis
Proposed Hampton Inn, Lawrenceburg
Residence Inn by Marriott, Merrillville
Proposed Home2 Suites, Mishawaka
Proposed SpringHill Suites by
Marriott, Munster
Proposed Potato Creek Inn, North
Liberty
Proposed Casino, Paxton
Knights Inn, Seymour
Proposed Fairfield Inn, South Bend
Proposed Valparaiso Hotel, Valparaiso
Hilton Garden Inn Wabash Landing,
West Lafayette
Proposed Prophetstown Inn, West
Lafayette
IDAHO
Hampton Inn & Suites, Pocatello
IOWA
Crowne Plaza, Cedar Rapids
Hampton Inn, Cedar Rapids
Wildwood Lodge, Clive
Best Western Metro, Council Bluffs
Proposed Candlewood Suites,
Davenport
Comfort Suites, Des Moines
Country Inn & Suites, Des Moines
Proposed 2525 Grand, Des Moines
Proposed Boutique Hotel, Des Moines
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott, Des
Moines
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Des
Moines
Proposed Hotel, Des Moines
Savery Hotel, Des Moines
Sleep Inn, Des Moines
Surety Hotel Des Moines, Des Moines
Four Points, West Des Moines
Sheraton, Iowa City
Proposed SpringHill Suites, Ottumwa
KANSAS
Holiday Inn Express, Hays
Courtyard by Marriott, Junction City
Holiday Inn, Lawrence
Proposed Hotel, Lawrence
Proposed MainStay Suites, Lawrence
Proposed Candlewood Suites, Lenexa
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Lenexa
Holiday Inn, Manhattan
Comfort Suites, Olathe
AmeriSuites, Overland Park
Hampton Inn, Overland Park
Homewood Suites, Overland Park
Proposed Hampton Inn, Overland Park
Proposed Staybridge Suites, Overland
Park
AmericInn, Salina
Holiday Inn, Wichita
Proposed Hotel – Bowllagio, Wichita
Proposed Downtown Hotel, Wichita
Proposed Hotel – Greenwich, Wichita
Proposed Hotel – Southfork, Wichita
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
12
KENTUCKY
Holiday Inn Riverfront, Covington
Courtyard by Marriott, Florence
Marriott Airport, Hebron
Embassy Suites, Lexington
Aloft Louisville Downtown, Louisville
Hilton Garden Inn Northeast,
Louisville
Holiday Inn, Louisville
Homewood Suites by Hilton Louisville
Downtown, Louisville
Proposed Aloft Hotel, Louisville
Proposed Homewood Suites by Hilton,
Louisville
Proposed WoodSpring Suites,
Louisville
Radisson, Louisville
Courtyard by Marriott, Paducah
Super 8, Prestonburg
LOUISIANA
Comfort Inn, Baton Rouge
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Baton Rouge
SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Baton
Rouge
TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Baton
Rouge
Residence Inn by Marriott Shreveport-
Bossier City/Downtown, Bossier
City
TownePlace Suites by Marriott
Shreveport-Bossier City, Bossier City
Courtyard by Marriott, Lafayette
Holiday Inn, Lafayette
Courtyard by Marriott, Metairie
Quality Inn, Metairie
Residence Inn by Marriott, Metairie
Astor Crowne Plaza, New Orleans
Bourbon Orleans, New Orleans
Courtyard Convention Center, New
Orleans
Crowne Plaza, New Orleans
Hyatt Regency, New Orleans
Maison DuPuy, New Orleans
Radisson, New Orleans
SpringHill Suites Convention Center,
New Orleans
SpringHill Suites by Marriott New
Orleans Downtown, New Orleans
Wingate Inn, Sulphur
MARYLAND
Marriott, Annapolis
DoubleTree by Hilton, Annapolis
Radisson, Annapolis
Brookshire Suites, Baltimore
Homewood Suites/Hilton Garden Inn
Inner Harbor, Baltimore
Proposed Extended-Stay Hotel,
Baltimore
Proposed Staybridge Suites, Baltimore
Wyndham Inner Harbor Hotel,
Baltimore
Bel Air Athletic Club, Bel Air
Holiday Inn, Belmont
Residence Inn by Marriott, Bethesda
Hilton, Columbia
Holiday Inn, Cromwell Bridge
Holiday Inn, Frederick
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Gaithersburg
Holiday Inn Airport, Linthicum Heights
DoubleTree, Rockville
Days Inn, Silver Spring
Holiday Inn, Silver Spring
MASSACHUSETTS
Wyndham, Billerica
Atlantic Avenue Athletic Club, Boston
Charles Square Athletic Club, Boston
Commonwealth Athletic Club, Boston
Courtyard by Marriott, Boston
Proposed Intercontinental Hotel,
Boston
Westin Copley Place, Boston
Wyndham Hotel, Boston
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Burlington
TownePlace Suites by Marriott,
Danvers
Residence Inn by Marriott, Dedham
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Natick
Newton Athletic Club, Newton
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Waltham
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Woburn
Crowne Plaza, Worcester
MICHIGAN
Proposed TownePlace Suites, Ann
Arbor
Residence Inn by Marriott, Ann Arbor
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Auburn Hills
Hilton Suites, Auburn Hills
Proposed TownePlace Suites, Auburn
Hills
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Canton
Lifetime Fitness Center, Canton
Courtyard by Marriott, Dearborn
Hyatt Regency, Dearborn
TownePlace Suites by Marriott,
Dearborn
DoubleTree Hotel Airport, Detroit
Courtyard by Marriott, Flint
Holiday Inn, Flint
Delta Hotels by Marriott Grand Rapids
Airport, Grand Rapids
Proposed TownePlace Suites by
Marriott, Grand Rapids
Holiday Inn West, Lansing
Embassy Suites Detroit Livonia,
Livonia
Proposed TownePlace Suites by
Marriott, Livonia
TownePlace Suites by Marriott,
Livonia
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Madison
Heights
Delta Hotels Muskegon Downtown,
Muskegon
Holiday Inn Muskegon Harbor,
Muskegon
Hampton Inn, Northville
Wyndham Garden, Novi
Quality Inn, Plymouth
Proposed Marriott, Pontiac
Lifetime Fitness Center, Rochester
Hills
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
13
Proposed WoodSpring Suites,
Rochester Hills
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Romulus
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Romulus
Courtyard by Marriott, Southfield
Holiday Inn, Southfield
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Sterling
Proposed TownePlace Suites, Sterling
Heights
Comfort Inn, Traverse City
Courtyard by Marriott, Troy
Drury Inn, Troy
Hilton Inn Northfield, Troy
Courtyard by Marriott, Warren
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Warren
MINNESOTA
Holiday Inn, Alexandria
Proposed Holiday Inn Express,
Alexandria
Holiday Inn, Arden Hills
Proposed Cobblestone Hotel & Suites,
Austin
Proposed SpringHill Suites Vadnais
Heights, Arden Hills
Proposed Country Inn, Bemidji
Cambria Suites, Bloomington
Crowne Plaza, Bloomington
GuestHouse Inn, Bloomington
Hampton Inn & Suites, Bloomington
Hilton Garden Inn Minneapolis Airport
Mall of America, Bloomington
Holiday Inn, Bloomington
Holiday Inn Express, Bloomington
Le Bourget Aero Suites (conversion to
Holiday Inn Express), Bloomington
Marriott Airport, Bloomington
Northwest Athletic Club 98th Street,
Bloomington
Northwest Athletic Club Normandale,
Bloomington
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Bloomington
Proposed Full-Service Hotel,
Bloomington
Proposed Hampton Inn & Suites,
Bloomington
Proposed Home2 Suites, Bloomington
Proposed Hyatt, Bloomington
Proposed JW Marriott, Bloomington
Proposed MOA Hotel, Bloomington
Proposed Radisson Blu, Bloomington
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Bloomington
Radisson Blu Mall of America,
Bloomington
Ramada Mall of America, Bloomington
Renaissance Hotel, Bloomington
Staybridge Suites Minneapolis
Bloomington, Bloomington
Wyndham Garden, Bloomington
Motel 6 Minneapolis Brooklyn Center,
Brooklyn Center
Northwest Athletic Club Highway 100,
Brooklyn Center
Cragun's Resort, Brainerd
Northland Inn, Brooklyn Park
Proposed Fairfield Inn by Marriott,
Brooklyn Park
Northwest Athletic Club Burnsville,
Burnsville
Proposed Hotel, Chaska
Proposed Cohasset Hotel, Cohasset
Days Inn Duluth Lakewalk, Duluth
Edgewater Hotel and Waterpark,
Duluth
Holiday Inn, Duluth
Motel 6, Duluth
Proposed Cambria Suites, Duluth
Proposed Clyde Ironworks Hotel,
Duluth
Proposed GrandStay Hotel & Suites,
Duluth
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Duluth
Proposed Mixed-Use Development,
Duluth
Proposed Fairfield Inn & Suites, Eagan
Proposed Home2 Suites, Eagan
Proposed Hotel, Eagan
Residence Inn by Marriott, Eagan
Westin Edina Galleria, Edina
Hilton Garden Inn, Eden Prairie
Northwest Athletic Club Crosstown,
Eden Prairie
Flagship Athletic Club, Eden Prairie
Proposed TownePlace Suites by
Marriott, Eden Prairie
Hawthorn Suites, Edina
Northwest Athletic Club Midwest,
Edina
Northwest Athletic Club St. Louis Park,
Edina
Proposed Homewood Suites by Hilton,
Edina
Proposed Hotel Market Study, Edina
Westin, Edina
Proposed Boutique Hotel on Lake
Minnetonka, Excelsior
Northwest Athletic Club Moore Lake,
Fridley
Proposed Best Western Plus, Grand
Rapids
Sawmill Inn, Grand Rapids
Wendigo Lodge, Grand Rapids
Proposed Hastings Hotel, Hastings
Proposed Microtel, Hastings
Hibbing Park Hotel, Hibbing
Grand Casino Hinckley’s RV Resort,
Hinckley
Proposed AmericInn by Wyndham,
International Falls
Proposed Best Western Plus
International Falls, International
Falls
Proposed Microtel International Falls,
International Falls
Motel 6 Lakeville/Minneapolis,
Lakeville
Lutsen Resort, Lutsen
Proposed Hampton Inn, Mankato
Northwest Athletic Club Maple Grove,
Maple Grove
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Maple
Grove
Proposed Staybridge Suites by
Marriott, Maple Grove
Proposed Hotel, Maplewood
Courtyard by Marriott, Mendota
Heights
AC Hotel by Marriott Minneapolis
Downtown, Minneapolis
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
14
Airport Market Area Overview,
Minneapolis
Comfort Suites, Minneapolis
Courtyard by Marriott Minneapolis
Downtown, Minneapolis
Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar
Downtown, Minneapolis
Days Inn University of MN,
Minneapolis
Element Minneapolis Downtown,
Minneapolis
Elliot Park Hotel Autograph Collection
Minneapolis, Minneapolis
Emery Autograph Collection by
Marriott, Minneapolis
Grand Hotel Minneapolis, Minneapolis
Homewood Suites Mall of America,
Minneapolis
Hampton Inn & Suites Minneapolis
University Area, Minneapolis
Hewing Hotel, Minneapolis
Hilton, Minneapolis
Hotel Ivy, Minneapolis
Hotel Minneapolis, Minneapolis
Hyatt Place, Minneapolis
Le Meridien Chambers Hotel,
Minneapolis
Northwest Athletic Club Arena,
Minneapolis
Proposed AC Hotel, Minneapolis
Proposed Autograph Hotel,
Minneapolis
Proposed Canopy Hotel, Minneapolis
Proposed Conrad Hotel, Minneapolis
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Minneapolis
Proposed Dual-Branded Hotel,
Minneapolis
Proposed Element, Minneapolis
Proposed Extended-Stay Hotel,
Minneapolis
Proposed Full-Service Hotel,
Minneapolis
Proposed Gateway Hotel, Minneapolis
Proposed Hampton Inn, Minneapolis
Proposed Hotel at MSP, Minneapolis
Proposed Hyatt Centric, Minneapolis
Proposed Hyatt Place (conversion),
Minneapolis
Proposed Limited-Service Hotel,
Minneapolis
Proposed Minneapolis Stadium Hotel,
Minneapolis
Proposed Moxy, Minneapolis
Proposed SALT Hotel, Minneapolis
Proposed Terminal Hotel, Minneapolis
Proposed TownePlace Suites,
Minneapolis
Proposed Westin, Minneapolis
Radisson Metrodome, Minneapolis
Sheraton Midtown Minneapolis,
Minneapolis
The Grand Hotel, Minneapolis
The Marquette Hotel, Minneapolis
W Minneapolis The Foshay,
Minneapolis
Hampton Inn, Minnetonka
Holiday Inn Express, Minnetonka
Northwest Athletic Club Oakdale,
Minnetonka
Sheraton Minneapolis West,
Minnetonka
Proposed Holiday Inn Express,
Mounds View
Proposed New Brighton Hotel, New
Brighton
Proposed Hilton Garden, Oakdale
Proposed Home2 Suites by Hilton,
Oakdale
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Oak
Park Heights
Owatonna Proposed Hotel, Owatonna
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Owatonna
Proposed Hotel, Plymouth
Motel 6 Minneapolis Airport Mall Of
America, Richfield
Extended Stay America North,
Rochester
Extended Stay America South,
Rochester
Holiday Inn Rochester Downtown,
Rochester
Proposed Cambria Suites, Rochester
Proposed Dual Brand IHG Rochester,
Rochester
Proposed Embassy Suites, Rochester
Proposed Hilton Hotel, Rochester
Proposed Hotel, Rochester
Proposed Hyatt House Rochester,
Rochester
Staybridge Suites, Rochester
Comfort Inn, Roseville
Motel 6 Roseville/Minneapolis,
Roseville
Proposed Roseville Avid Hotel,
Roseville
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Roseville
Holiday Inn West, St. Louis Park
Proposed Extended-Stay Hotel, St.
Louis Park
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, St. Louis
Park
Proposed Hotel, St. Louis Park
DoubleTree by Hilton Saint Paul East,
Saint Paul
Holiday Inn, St. Paul
Proposed Element Hotel, St. Paul
Proposed Hotel, St. Paul
Proposed Hyatt Place, St. Paul
Saint Paul Hotel, St. Paul
Proposed Hotel, Stillwater
Proposed Hotel, Wabasha
Proposed Holiday Inn, Waite Park
Proposed Staybridge Suites, Waite
Park
Proposed Limited-Service Hotel,
Willmar
La Quinta Inn & Suites Saint Paul
Woodbury, Woodbury
Sheraton, Woodbury
MISSISSIPPI
Hampton Inn, Harrisburg
Comfort Inn, Hattiesburg
Courtyard by Marriott, Jackson
Holiday Inn Express, Jackson
Proposed Conference Resort,
Jackson
Ramada, McComb
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
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Holiday Inn Express, Milford
Homewood Suites, Ridgeland
Staybridge Suites, Ridgeland
MISSOURI
Branson Landing Hilton, Branson
Chateau on the Lake, Branson
Hilton Branson Convention Center,
Branson
Sheraton, Clayton
Proposed Home 2 Suites by Hilton,
Independence
Residence Inn by Marriott, Joplin
Hampton Inn, Kansas City
Proposed Boutique Hotel, Kansas City
Proposed Hotel, Kansas City
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Kansas City
Residence Inn by Marriott, Kansas City
Country Club Hotel & Spa, Lake Ozark
Big Cedar Lodge, Ridgedale
Embassy Suites, St. Charles
Comfort Inn, St. Louis
Holiday Inn North, St. Louis
Radisson Hotel, St. Louis
Courtyard by Marriott, Springfield
Holiday Inn Express, Springfield
Residence Inn by Marriott, Springfield
University Plaza, Springfield
MONTANA
Crowne Plaza, Billings
Proposed TownePlace Suites by
Marriott, Billings
Best Western Butte Plaza Inn, Butte
Hampton Inn, Butte
Proposed Holiday Inn Express,
Glendive
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Great
Falls
Holiday Inn Express, Helena
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Helena
Wingate Inn, Helena
Holiday Inn Express, Kalispell
Proposed Homewood Suites, Kalispell
Proposed Hotel, Missoula
Proposed TownePlace Suites, Missoula
TownePlace Suites by Marriott,
Missoula
Proposed Best Western, Shelby
Best Western Golden Prairie Inn &
Suites, Sidney
Proposed Best Western, Sidney
Richland Motor Inn, Sidney
Proposed Hotel, Whitefish
NEBRASKA
Proposed Hotel, Ashland
Proposed Hotel, Beatrice
Proposed Hotel, Grand Island
Proposed Hotel, Hastings
Embassy Suites, La Vista
Embassy Suites, Lincoln
Hampton Inn, Lincoln
Proposed Fallbrook Hotel, Lincoln
Proposed Hotel, Lincoln
Courtyard by Marriott, La Vista
Proposed Hotel, Lincoln
Best Western Central, Omaha
DoubleTree, Omaha
Hampton Inn, Omaha
Marriott Hotel, Omaha
Proposed Blackstone Hotel, Omaha
Proposed Hotel, Omaha
Proposed Marriott, Omaha
Ramada Inn, Omaha
Sheraton Inn, Omaha
Proposed Hotel, Waverly
NEVADA
Candlewood Suites, Henderson
Hampton Inn & Holiday Inn Express,
Henderson
Proposed Holiday Inn Express,
Henderson
Proposed Timeshare Resort, Lake
Tahoe
Alexis Park Suites, Las Vegas
Courtyard by Marriott, Las Vegas
Embassy Suites, Las Vegas
Marriott Suites, Las Vegas
Proposed Hotel, Las Vegas
SpringHill Suites, Las Vegas
Homewood Suites, Reno
Hyatt Place, Reno
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Merrimack
NEW JERSEY
Trump Marina Hotel & Casino, Atlantic
City
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Bridgewater
Courtyard by Marriott, Edison
Leisure Park Retirement Community,
Lakewood
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Morristown
Hilton Gateway Plaza, Newark
Hilton, Parsippany
Residence Inn by Marriott, Princeton
Courtyard by Marriott, Secaucus
DoubleTree, Somerset
Residence Inn by Marriott, Tinton Falls
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Whippany
NEW MEXICO
Andaluz, Albuquerque
Del Norte Athletic Club, Albuquerque
DoubleTree by Hilton, Albuquerque
Downtown Athletic Club, Albuquerque
Embassy Suites, Albuquerque
Hilton Garden Inn Uptown,
Albuquerque
Highpoint Athletic Club, Albuquerque
Holiday Inn Express, Albuquerque
Hotel Albuquerque, Albuquerque
La Posada, Albuquerque
Midtown Athletic Club, Albuquerque
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn,
Albuquerque
Proposed Hotel Indigo, Albuquerque
Proposed Residence Inn, Albuquerque
Proposed SpringHill Suites,
Albuquerque
Riverpoint Athletic Club, Albuquerque
Suburban Lodge, Albuquerque
Holiday Inn Express, Farmington
Hilton Garden Inn, Las Cruces
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
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Proposed Resort, Pojoaque
Hilton Garden Inn, Rio Rancho
Bishop's Lodge, Santa Fe
Courtyard by Marriott, Santa Fe
Eldorado Hotel, Santa Fe
Encantado Resort, Santa Fe
Hilton, Santa Fe
Holiday Inn, Santa Fe
Hotel Chimayo, Santa Fe
Proposed Hotel, Santa Fe
NEW YORK
Crowne Plaza, Albany
Omni Hotel, Albany
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Buffalo
Holiday Inn Express, Cooperstown
Residence Inn by Marriott, Fishkill
Hyatt Place, Garden City
Holiday Inn, Grand Island
Holiday Inn, Jamestown
Sofitel, New York
Four Points, Niagara Falls
Holiday Inn Select, Niagara Falls
Proposed Hotel, Niagara Falls
Embassy Suites, Syracuse
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Syracuse
Holiday Inn, Syracuse
Wyndham Hotel, Syracuse
NORTH CAROLINA
Sleep Inn & Suites, Albemarle
Hampton Inn, Asheboro
DoubleTree Biltmore, Asheville
Hotel Indigo, Asheville
Renaissance, Asheville
Cape Pines Motel, Buxton
Embassy Suites Ayrsley, Charlotte
Hilton Garden Inn Ayrsley, Charlotte
Homewood Suites, Charlotte
Residence Inn by Marriott, Charlotte
Westin Hotel, Charlotte
Proposed Select-Service Hotel,
Charlotte
Holiday Inn Express, Clemmons
Embassy Suites, Concord
Hilton Garden Inn, Concord
21c Museum Hotel, Durham
Candlewood Suites Durham Research
Triangle Park, Durham
Proposed 21c Hotel, Durham
Proposed Hotel, Durham
Holiday Inn, Fayetteville
Radisson Inn, Greensboro
Holiday Inn Express, Henderson
Days Inn RPT, Raleigh
Holiday Inn, Raleigh
Proposed Hotel, Raleigh
Renaissance Hotel, Raleigh
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Rocky Mount
NORTH DAKOTA
Hampton by Hilton, Bismarck
Proposed SpringHill Suites by
Marriott, Bismarck
Proposed University Hotel, Bismarck
Staybridge Suites, Bismarck
Proposed Dakota Suites, Dickinson
Delta Hotels by Marriott Fargo, Fargo
Hampton by Hilton Fargo Medical
Center, Fargo
Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham Fargo,
Fargo
Holiday Inn, Fargo
Proposed Hawthorn Suites, Fargo
Proposed Hotel, Fargo
Proposed Limited-Service Hotel, Fargo
Proposed Wingate Inn, Fargo
Radisson, Fargo
Ramada Plaza Conversion, Fargo
Ramada Plaza Suites, Fargo
Canad Inns Destination Center Grand
Forks, Grand Forks
Baymont Inn & Suites, Minot
Hyatt House, Minot
La Quinta Inn & Suites, Minot
Noble Inn, Minot
North Hills Suites Conversion to Hyatt
House, Minot
Proposed Extended-Stay Hotel, Minot
Proposed Limited-Service Hotel, Minot
Proposed Baymont Inn & Suites, South
Heart
Proposed Candlewood Suites, West
Fargo
Market Overview, Williston
Proposed Hotel(s), Williston
Supply Update, Williston
OHIO
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Akron
Proposed Hilton, Chippewa Lake
Hyatt Regency, Cincinnati
Radisson, Cincinnati
Courtyard by Marriott, Cleveland
Holiday Inn Beachwood, Cleveland
Holiday Inn Westlake, Cleveland
Marriott East, Cleveland
Marriott North, Cleveland
Radisson, Cleveland
AmeriSuites, Columbus
Courtyard Easton, Columbus
DoubleTree Guest Suites, Columbus
Hilton Easton, Columbus
Hilton Polaris, Columbus
Marriott Airport, Columbus
Westin, Columbus
DoubleTree Guest Suites, Dayton
Marriott Columbus Northwest, Dublin
La Quinta Inn & Suites Fairborn
Wright Patterson, Fairborn
AmeriSuites, Forest Park
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites
Dayton Huber Heights, Huber
Heights
Harley Hotel, Independence
Comfort Inn, Marietta
Marriott Cincinnati Northeast, Mason
Comfort Inn Cleveland Airport,
Middleburg Heights
Harley Hotel, Middleburg Heights
Holiday Inn, Richfield
Homewood Suites, Sharonville
Holiday Inn, Strongsville
Marriott Cincinnati North, West
Chester
Ramada Hotel, Willoughby
OKLAHOMA
Holiday Inn Express & Suites, Duncan
Embassy Suites, Norman
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
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Courtyard by Marriott Downtown,
Oklahoma City
Hampton Inn, Oklahoma City
Hampton Inn & Suites Oklahoma City
Airport, Oklahoma City
Home2 Suites by Hilton Oklahoma City
Airport, Oklahoma City
Park Inn, Oklahoma City
Proposed Boutique Hotel, Oklahoma
City
Proposed NYLO Hotel, Oklahoma City
Residence Inn by Marriott Bricktown,
Oklahoma City
Westin, Oklahoma City
Courtyard by Marriott, Tulsa
Hampton Inn, Tulsa
Renaissance, Tulsa
OREGON
Windmill Inn, Ashland
Best Western Pier Point Inn, Florence
Proposed Staybridge Suites, Hillsboro
Columbia Gorge Hotel & Spa, Hood
River
Residence Inn by Marriott, Lake
Oswego
Proposed Candlewood Suites, Medford
Windmill Inn, Medford
DoubleTree Downtown, Portland
DoubleTree Lloyd Center, Portland
Marriott, Portland
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Portland
Proposed Hyatt Convention Hotel,
Portland
Residence Inn by Marriott, Portland
Windmill Inn, Roseburg
DoubleTree, Springfield
Holiday Inn, Wilsonville
PENNSYLVANIA
Courtyard by Marriott, Cranberry
Township
Marriott North, Cranberry Township
Hilton Garden Inn, Fort Washington
Holiday Inn, Greentree
Crowne Plaza, Harrisburg
Proposed Hotel – King of Prussia Mall,
King of Prussia
Four Points by Sheraton, Mars
Holiday Inn, McKnight
Holiday Inn, Monroeville
DoubleTree, Moon Township
DoubleTree Club, Philadelphia
Proposed Ritz-Carlton, Philadelphia
Proposed Sofitel, Philadelphia
Residence Inn by Marriott,
Philadelphia
Sofitel, Philadelphia
Wyndham Franklin Plaza, Philadelphia
Crowne Plaza, Pittsburgh
Holiday Inn, Pittsburgh
Holiday Inn Parkway East, Pittsburgh
Windsor Court Hotel Conversion,
Pittsburgh
Wyndham, Pittsburgh
DoubleTree Guest Suites, Plymouth
Meeting
Nittany Lion, State College
Penn Stater, State College
Holiday Inn Meadowlands,
Washington Park
Holiday Inn, York
RHODE ISLAND
Proposed WoodSpring Suites
Signature, Providence
Residence Inn by Marriott, Warwick
Proposed NYLO Hotel, Warwick
SOUTH CAROLINA
Best Western, Charleston
Clarion, Charleston
Lodge Alley, Charleston
Holiday Inn, Columbia
Hilton Garden Inn, Greenville
Best Western, Hilton Head
Holiday Inn, Hilton Head
Hampton Inn Oceanside, Myrtle Beach
Holiday Inn Sunspree, Myrtle Beach
Shorecrest II, Myrtle Beach
DoubleTree Hotel, North Charleston
Residence Inn, North Charleston
Holiday Inn, Rock Hill
SOUTH DAKOTA
Proposed GrandStay Suites, Aberdeen
Proposed TownePlace Suites,
Aberdeen
TownePlace Suites by Marriott,
Aberdeen
Proposed Hotel, Pierre
Courtyard by Marriott, Sioux Falls
Proposed Full-Service Hotel Sioux
Falls, Sioux Falls
Proposed Limited-Service Sioux Falls
Hotel, Sioux Falls
Sheraton, Sioux Falls
SpringHill Suites, Sioux Falls
Proposed Hotel, Watertown
TENNESSEE
Courtyard by Marriott, Clarksville
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Chattanooga
Embassy Suites, Franklin
TownePlace Suites Cool Springs,
Franklin
Courtyard by Marriott, Germantown
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Jackson
Hampton Inn & Suites East, Knoxville
Hotel Market Supply and Demand
Study, Knoxville
Proposed Convention Hotel, Knoxville
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Knoxville
Fairfield Inn & Suites by Marriott
Lebanon, Lebanon
Adams Mark, Memphis
AmeriSuites, Memphis
Courtyard by Marriott, Memphis
French Quarter Hotel, Memphis
Hampton Inn, Memphis
Ramada Inn, Memphis
Country Inn, Murfreesboro
Embassy Suites, Murfreesboro
Aloft Nashville West End, Nashville
Proposed SpringHill/Residence Inn by
Marriott, Nashville
Renaissance Hotel, Nashville
SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Nashville
Hampton Inn, Pigeon Forge
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
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Hampton Inn, Smyrna
Hilton Garden Inn, Smyrna
TEXAS
Courtyard by Marriott, Abilene
Courtyard by Marriott, Allen
Comfort Inn, Amarillo
Crowne Plaza, Amarillo
Days Inn, Amarillo
Holiday Inn Express, Amarillo
Courtyard by Marriott South Arlington,
Arlington
Residence Inn South Arlington,
Arlington
Courtyard by Marriott, Austin
Fairfield Inn & Suites North, Austin
Hampton Inn & Suites Downtown,
Austin
Hawthorn Suites Central, Austin
Hawthorn Suites South, Austin
Hilton Garden Inn, Austin
Holiday Inn, Austin
Holiday Inn NW, Austin
Holiday Inn South, Austin
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Austin
Sheraton, Austin
Staybridge Suites Austin South
Interstate Highway 35, Austin
Proposed Spillman Ranch, Bee Cave
Courtyard by Marriott, Corpus Christi
DoubleTree Campbell Center, Dallas
Holiday Inn Market Center, Dallas
Le Meridien, Dallas
Proposed Boutique Hotel, Dallas
Proposed NYLO, Dallas
Proposed WoodSpring Suites, Dallas
Residence Inn by Marriott, Dallas
Holiday Inn Select, D/FW Airport
Hyatt D/FW Airport
Courtyard by Marriott, El Paso
Hilton Garden Inn, Fort Worth
Marriott DFW, Fort Worth
Residence Inn by Marriott, Fort Worth
TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Fort
Worth
Embassy Suites, Frisco
Proposed NYLO Hotel, Frisco
Holiday Inn Express and Suites
Gatesville North Fort Hood,
Gatesville
Proposed Resort, Horseshoe Bay
Crowne Plaza, Houston
Hampton Inn, Houston
Hawthorn Suites, Houston
Hilton Garden Inn Energy Corridor,
Houston
Hilton Garden Inn Galleria, Houston
Hotel Icon, Houston
Kingwood Athletic Club, Houston
Magnolia Hotel, Houston
Ramada Plaza, Houston
Westin Galleria, Houston
Westin Oaks, Houston
Hawthorn Suites, Irving
Holiday Inn Express, Irving
Hyatt Place, Irving
Marriott DFW Airport, Irving
Proposed Convention Hotel, Irving
Hawthorn Suites, Killeen
Residence Inn, Killeen
Hampton Inn, Laredo
Proposed NYLO, Las Colinas
Proposed Campus Hotel, Lubbock
Embassy Suites, McAllen
Proposed Hotel, McKinney
Holiday Inn, New Braunfels
Best Western, Odessa
Proposed NYLO, Plano
Courtyard by Marriott, Richardson
Hampton Inn, Richardson
Renaissance, Richardson
Proposed Hotel, Riviera
Courtyard by Marriott Austin Round
Rock, Round Rock
Marriott, Round Rock
DoubleTree, San Antonio
Homewood Suites, San Antonio
JW Marriott Hill Country, San Antonio
Marriott Plaza, San Antonio
Marriott San Antonio Northwest, San
Antonio
Proposed Aloft, San Antonio
Residence Inn by Marriott Airport, San
Antonio
Embassy Suites, San Marcos
Staybridge Suites, Stafford
Marriott Hotel & Conference Center,
Sugar Land
Residence Inn, Temple
Hilton Garden Inn, Tyler
Holiday Inn, Tyler
Homewood Suites by Hilton, Tyler
Residence Inn by Marriott, Tyler
Courtyard by Marriott, Waco
UTAH
Crystal Inn, Brigham City
Residence Inn by Marriott,
Cottonwood
Proposed Black Rock Mountain Resort,
Heber City
Hampton Inn, Layton
Suburban Lodge, Midvale
Holiday Inn Express, Moab
Brookfield Inn, Park City
Chateaux at Silver Lake, Park City
Olympia Park, Park City
Park City Peaks, Park City
The Lodges at Deer Valley, Park City
Comfort Inn Airport, Salt Lake City
Crystal Inn, Salt Lake City
Embassy Suites, Salt Lake City
Hilton Airport, Salt Lake City
Hilton Downtown, Salt Lake City
Hilton Garden Inn, Salt Lake City
Holiday Inn Express, Salt Lake City
Peery Hotel, Salt Lake City
Proposed Comfort Suites, Salt Lake
City
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott, Salt
Lake City
Proposed Embassy Suites, Salt Lake
City
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Salt Lake
City
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Salt Lake City
Quality Inn, Salt Lake City
Quality Inn Midvalley, Salt Lake City
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
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Residence Inn by Marriott, Salt Lake
City
Residence Inn City Center, Salt Lake
City
University Park, Salt Lake City
Holiday Inn Express & Suites, Sandy
Proposed Embassy Suites, Sandy
Suburban Lodge, S. Salt Lake City
Proposed Cambria Suites, S. Jordan
Bottle Hollow Resort, Uinitah
VERMONT
Fairfield Inn by Marriott, Colchester
VIRGINIA
SpringHill Suites by Marriott
Centreville Chantilly, Centreville
Residence Inn by Marriott, Chantilly
Hilton Garden Inn, Chesapeake
Super 8, Christiansburg
Holiday Inn, Covington
Hyatt Fair Lakes, Fairfax
Hilton Garden, Fredericksburg
AmeriSuites, Glen Allen
Embassy Suites, Hampton
Super 8, Harrisonburg
Holiday Inn, Lexington
Super 8, Lexington
Courtyard by Marriott, McLean
Proposed Tysons Corner Hotel,
McClean
Staybridge Suites by Holiday Inn,
McLean
Super 8, Norton
Super 8, Radford
Embassy Suites, Richmond
Westin, Richmond
Proposed MainStay Suites, Roanoke
Sheraton Airport, Roanoke
Super 8, Roanoke
Holiday Inn, Salem
Country Inn, Stafford
Crowne Plaza Virginia Beach Town
Center, Virginia Beach
Super 8, Waynesboro
Embassy Suites, Williamsburg
WASHINGTON
DoubleTree Bellevue Center, Bellevue
SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Bothell
Proposed Holiday Inn Express, Lacey
Proposed Mt. Rainer Resort, Park
Junction
Hyatt at Olive 8, Seattle
Renaissance Hotel, Seattle
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham,
Seattle
DoubleTree Spokane Valley, Spokane
Holiday Inn Express Spokane
Downtown, Spokane
Quality Inn Spokane Valley
(conversion to Fairfield), Spokane
Residence Inn by Marriott, Vancouver
SpringHill Suites, Wenatchee
DoubleTree, Yakima
WEST VIRGINIA
Aspen Suites (Holiday Inn Express
Conversion), Charleston
Residence Inn by Marriott, Charleston
Hampton Inn, Morgantown
WISCONSIN
Proposed Country Inn, Brookfield
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn,
Brookfield
Sheraton Milwaukee Brookfield,
Brookfield
Wyndham Garden, Brookfield
Telemark Resort, Cable
Proposed Hotel, Cottage Grove
Ramada Hotel and Conference Center,
Eau Claire
Hotel Northland, Green Bay
Proposed Holiday Inn Express Hotel &
Suites, Hudson
Proposed Hilton Garden, Kimberly
Charmant Hotel, La Crosse
Hampton Inn, La Crosse
Proposed Hampton Inn, La Crosse
Proposed AC Hotel, Madison
Proposed Courtyard by Marriott,
Madison
Proposed Hilton Garden Inn, Madison
Proposed Hotel, Milwaukee
Proposed Kimpton Hotel, Milwaukee
Proposed Marriott, Milwaukee
Proposed Residence Inn by Marriott,
Milwaukee
Proposed WoodSpring Suites,
Milwaukee
Comfort Suites, Pewaukee
Proposed Holiday Inn Express,
Platteville
Proposed Hotel River Falls, River Falls
Holiday Inn Express, Superior
Proposed Extended-Stay Hotel,
Superior
Proposed Hampton Inn, Superior
Proposed Hotel, Superior
Proposed Hotel, Verona
Holiday Inn, Wauwatosa
Proposed Fairfield Inn, Whitewater
WYOMING
Holiday Inn, Casper
Proposed Autograph Hotel &
Residences Jackson Hole, Jackson
Snake River Lodge, Jackson
Proposed Resort, Teton Village
Proposed Americas Best Value Inn,
Wheatland
INTERNATIONAL
Canada
Horseshoe Valley Ski Resort, Barrie,
Ontario
Hilton, Windsor, Ontario
Travelodge, Windsor, Ontario
Hampton Inn & Suites, Ontario
Caribbean
Aruba Marriott & Casino, Aruba
Americana Resort, Aruba
Westin, Aruba
Holiday Inn Nassau, Bahamas
Paradise Island Fun Club, Bahamas
Little Dix Bay, Virgin Gorda, BVI
Club St. Lucia, Castries, British West
Indies
HVS, Minneapolis, Minnesota Qualifications of Tanya Pierson, MAI
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Marriott Resort, Grand Cayman,
British West Indies
Ritz Carlton San Juan, Puerto Rico
Sands Hotel & Casino, Puerto Rico
Wyndham El San Juan, Puerto Rico
Hyatt Regency St. John, USVI
Proposed Limited-Service Hotel, St.
John USVI
Westin Resort, St. John, USVI
Caneel Bay, St. John, USVI
Marriott Frenchman’s Reef and
Morningstar Resort, St. Thomas,
USVI
Mexico
Royal Sands, Cancun