HomeMy WebLinkAbout1998-10-07 PACKET 04.U.FdECtUEST OF CiTY COUNG�L,4CTIORI COUfVCIL AGEPIDA
M�ETIN� IT NI #
DATE 10/7/98
PREPARED BY Community Development Kim Lindquist
ORIGINATING DEPARTMEIVT STAFF AUTFiOR
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COUNGfL ACTION REQUEST
Receive draft information on fiscal impact analysis.
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ADVISORY COMMISSION ACTION
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TURL AMOUNT
APPROVED
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DEfVIED
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REVIEWED
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im Lindquist dated 10/5/98
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TO:
FROM
DATE:
RE:
Honorable Mayor and City Council
Ryan Schroeder, City Administrator
Kim Lindquist, Community Development Director
October 5, 1998
FISCAL IMPACT ANA�YSIS
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Introduction
The City has developed two growth scenarios to be used for the fiscal analysis being
conducted. The household growth scenarios use a current trend projection and a higher
growth projection. Similarly the economic growth scenarios reflect existing commercial/
industrial growth trends and one that reflects an increase in growth. In all cases, the
growth projections are plausible a�d are somewhat dependent upon economic factors
such as inte�est rates and housing prices within the metro area, as weli as the
availability of land within the region.
HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES
Siow Growth
Over the last several decades, Cottage Grove has experienced somewhat steady
growth. Rule of thumb is that the number of new housing units has been around 300.
However, in actuality new housing starts have hovered around 300 but only surpassed
that number during 19—and 19—. More recently, new housing starts have been
decreasing. This change may be due to the current inventory of ne�nr lots �nrithin the
community and the control of available land for development in the hands of a few
development companies. The slow growth scenario (200 new units per year) continues
the lower new household trend, recognizing that the current City policy is to have stable
and orderiy growth. Further, the reconstruction of Hwy 61 and the Wakota Bridge within
the next decade may discourage new residents into the community until their
completion. Some upturn after that time, around 2008 may occur.
To arrive at the slow growth strategy stafF reviewed the non-MUSA 2020 area and the
permanent agricultural areas to assess how many units could be located within their
boundaries at the 1 unit to 40 acre density. This density is consistent with the Met
Council Growth Strategy for urban reserve areas and permanent agricultural areas.
Staff found that approximately 64 agricultural lots could be created and about 40 rural
residential Iots. Under the slow growth scenario, it was estimated that approximately
Fiscal Impact Anaiysis
October 5, 1998
Page 2 of 2
one-third of the agricultural fots would be created by 2020, which averages to one new
agricultural lot per year. It was assumed that almost all rural residential lots, at the one
unit per 40 acres, would be created by the year 2020. This calculation assumes
approximately 2 new units per acre within the non-MUSA areas of the City. All other unit
increases were put into the MUSA and future MUSA areas delineated in FAZ 4.
Higher Growth
The high growth strategy would recognize an increase in the number of dwelling units
from the existing condition. A new unit count of 320 units per year was used under this
scenario. Although this household increase is higher than that experienced in 1997 and
1998, it is consistent with citywide growth experienced in the early to mid-1990's when
combining single and multi-family units built.
Under the higher growth scenario, the number of units available within the agricultural
area, FAA 2 remains unchanged at 64. However, the projection is two-thirds, or 40, new
residentiai units are created. L.ikewise the non-MUSA residential development also
increases. The staff assessed the number of units which could be developed within the
non-MUSA area if development occurred in a manner similar to the River Oaks
development. That subdivision, including open space, developed at approximately one
unit per five acres. Using this density over the available land within FAZ 4 led to 360
available lots. From staff's perspective this number appears high and so staff estimated
a totai of 208 units created in the next twenty years, or approximately 10 per year. The
remaining portion of the 320 units is put into the designated MUSA and future MUSA
expansion area.
Siow Economic Growth
Under the economic growth strategy FAZ 1,3 and 4 are the oniy ones impacted. The
slow growth strategy reflects commercial and industrial building square footage
increases c�nsistent vvith the �att�rns e�tablish�d in the 1990's. The �nsuing
employment is based upon ine projected commercial indusfrial mix that was 4hen
applied to the Urban Land institute ratio of square feet per employee.
Fast Economic Growth
The faster economic growth would reflect changes to the city's economy due to an
increase in population and the availability of land within the metro area. Although the
numbers are higher than that experienced by the City previously, the forecasts are
reasonable under a growth scenario. Again, employment figures were derived from the
ULI ratios. Under both scenarios, the employment projections far exceed that projected
for the City by the Met Cauncil.
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